Giants vs. 49ers Preview: 5 Areas San Francisco Must Improve to Beat New York

The San Francisco 49ers are one win away from returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1994 season.  First, they must defeat the New York Giants this Sunday in the NFC Championship Game. 

In their most recent meeting, the 49ers walked away with a 27-20 home win against the Giants in Week 10.  The Niners didn’t win this game easily; losing Frank Gore to a knee injury, going 3-11 on third downs, and amassing only 77 rushing yards.  

Despite it all, the 49ers scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns in 61 seconds and got a critical defensive stop on 4th-and-2 with 34 seconds left to seal the win.  That loss marked the first of a four-game losing streak that nearly sank the Giants season.  However they have bounced back and are playing their best football of the season. 

Another 49ers' performance similar to the one in Week 10 will not be sufficient the second time around.  Let’s take a look at what the Niners must improve upon to make it to Indianapolis.

Time of Possession

The 49ers ranked fifth in the NFL in time of possession this season; the Giants ranked 23rd. 

For a team that relies so heavily on the running game, clock control and keeping the opposing team’s offense on the sideline is vital to their success.  The Giants controlled the clock against the 49ers in Week 10, winning the possession battle 34:37 to 25:23.

While the Niners’ first offensive drive of the game took over six minutes, all of the remaining drives were four minutes or less.  Frank Gore’s injury, a stagnant running game and inefficiency on third down proved to be the biggest contributing factors. 

The Niners offense will want to get into a rhythm early on and establish the tempo.  Defensively, they will want to force Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense into mistakes and shorter drives.  The Giants had four offensive drives lasting more than five minutes, scoring points on three of them.

Third-Down Defense

The 49ers’ defense is one of the most efficient in the NFL on third down.  Opposing offenses are converting at a rate of 35 percent—tied for ninth in the NFL. 

In the first meeting, the Giants faced an average down and distance of 3rd-and-5, with only three of their third-down possessions needing fewer than five yards to move the chains.  The Giants converted seven of 14 third downs as well as two of three fourth downs. 

Although the Niners’ defense played well on first and second down, forcing the 3rd-and-long situations; allowing the Giants to convert on 50 percent of their third downs is alarming.  While the defense the Giants to two touchdowns, both occurred on a 3rd-and-6 pass play. 

They must get pressure up front in an effort to force Eli into some bad throws.

Red-Zone Efficiency

It’s no secret that the 49ers have struggled in the red zone all season, having scored a touchdown in 22 of 54 trips—a success rate of 41 percent. 

Prior to a 4-2 stretch in its last two games, the Niners’ offense converted a disheartening 37 percent of their red-zone opportunities including a 0-for-7 run between Weeks 12 and 15.  Against the Giants, the Niners converted on one of three red-zone opportunities. 

Even with a kicker as accurate as David Akers, the inability to punch the ball into the end zone from 20 yards away puts more pressure on the defense to keep the score low. 

While San Francisco was able to score 36 points last week against the Saints—only the fourth 30-plus point game this season—they cannot solely rely on its defense to keep the Giants' fifth-ranked passing offense from scoring.

Third-Down Efficiency

Third downs have been another sticking point for the 49ers’ offense as it has a conversion rate of only 29 percent—31st in the NFL. 

While the Giants converted on 50 percent of their third downs in Week 10, the Niners succeeded on three of 11 third downs for a paltry 27 percent success rate.  Their average down distance was 3rd-and-10. 

Alex Smith has been the least effective on third downs.  Fifty percent of his sacks have occurred on third down, and he is completing fewer than 55 percent of his passes. 

This time around, the offense must improve its positioning on third down to give itself a more manageable distance to get the first down.

Rushing Attack

The rushing attack is the key to the San Francisco offense. 

Ranked eighth in total yards and yards per game, the 49ers rely heavily on their ability to run the football. 

The Giants held the 49ers to 77 rushing yards on 20 carries—an average of 3.9 yards per carry.  Although losing Frank Gore didn’t help, his six carries netting zero yards didn’t provide much promise for success. 

The Niners’ ability to effectively run the ball will be the key to beating the Giants.  The Giants’ defense ranked 19th in the NFL in yards allowed per game and total rushing yards allowed during the regular season, as well as ranked 22nd in yards allowed per carry. 

Without the rushing attack as an effective weapon, the pressure will be on quarterback Alex Smith to lead them to victory.  Can he do it?  Based on last week’s performance, yes he can. 

Are the 49ers willing to risk that…most likely not.

Follow Walt J. as he gives his no-holds-barred opinions on the NFL and other sports topics on his blog, "Live From AREA 49." You can also follow him on Twitter @area49sports.