NFC Championship: 4 Keys for the New York Giants, Plus the AtS Picks

The two top quarterbacks in the NFC will square off in Sunday’s NFC Championship. The footballs will be flying when Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers return to Lambeau Field for their second act after the Green Bay Packers beat the New Orleans Saints way back on the opening Thursday night of the season, 42-34.

Wait…what?

The NFC title game most experts expected got blown up by the underdogs in the divisional playoffs. The New York Giants continued their late roll, stunning Green Bay 37-20 on Sunday, a day after the San Francisco 49ers outgunned the Saints 36-32 in a game that featured four lead changes in the final 4:03.

This will be the eighth playoff meeting between the Giants and 49ers, the first since the 2002 wild-card round. The 49ers have won four of the seven, with the Giants winning the only previous meeting between the teams in the conference championship, 15-13 in the 1990 NFC title game.

That was also the only road win by either team in the postseason series.

This season, San Francisco beat the Giants at Candlestick Park on Nov. 13, 27-20. That loss was the first of four straight losses by the Giants that saw them fall from a 6-2 record and a two-game lead in the NFC East to 6-6 and put them on life support.

Including the regular season, the Giants have won four straight games by double-digit margins, becoming the first team to begin postseason play in the wild-card round and win its first two playoff games by at least 17 points.

Ten of the previous 12 teams to open the playoffs with two lopsided wins went on to win the Super Bowl. The Giants are 4-0 all-time in the NFC Championship.

The Giants have been keyed during the four-game win streak by the revival of the pass rush. New York has 17 sacks in its last four games, including four against Rodgers last week.

All-Pro Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged as a star, and the defensive line got healthy at the right time. Osi Umenyiora returned for the win over Dallas to close the regular season, and Justin Tuck has been as healthy as he has been all year.

If there is a mismatch on paper it is this: New York was last in the league running the football at 89.2 yards per game during the regular season. San Francisco led the NFL in run defense, holding opponents to 77.3 yards a game.

The game also features a matchup of players taken first overall in consecutive NFL drafts, but whose careers have taken divergent paths.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning was the No. 1 overall pick in 2004 and fell 67 yards short of throwing for 5,000 this season. He has 607 passing yards and six touchdowns in the two playoff wins this season. Those playoff numbers are far better than what he posted during the Giants’ 2007 Super Bowl run.

Alex Smith, taken by the 49ers with the top pick in 2005, never found his footing until Jim Harbaugh came to San Francisco this season. Smith has taken care of the football—the 49ers had the fewest turnovers in the NFL this season with 10—and showed his chops by leading San Francisco to two touchdown drives in the final 2:11 against the Saints on Saturday.

I have identified four keys for the Giants to return to the Super Bowl with a win on Sunday, along with my picks against the spread for Championship Sunday.

Keep Big Mo

The Giants are playing great on both sides of the ball right now and might be the hottest team of the four remaining in the postseason.

New York was extremely impressive in its upset of the Packers and will not be overwhelmed in the slightest going on the road again.

The 49ers are 8-1 at home, including the playoffs, and Alex Smith has been much better at home than on the road.

San Francisco forced five turnovers against the Saints, which was as big a key as any in its win.

New York got banged up a lot in Green Bay with many minor injuries, and the 49ers got an extra day to prepare by playing on Saturday.

These teams met in Week 10, with the 49ers eking out a 27-20 win.

Protect Eli

The Giants’ pass protection struggled during the regular season but has improved dramatically during their four-game winning streak.

Eli Manning is a difficult quarterback to sack because of his great feel in the pocket, his ability to decipher blitzes and coverage and his subtle movement skills that help him keep plays alive.

Manning was sacked once by the Packers, but the 49ers' pass rush is far superior pass to Green Bay's.

In Big Blue’s last five wins, Manning has been sacked only six times, but New York will have its hands full up front with a San Francisco pass rush led by Justin Smith and Aldon Smith.

Cover Davis

49ers' tight end Vernon Davis was dominant against New Orleans, with 180 receiving yards and two touchdown receptions while also featuring the ability to run after the catch.

The Saints hurt their cause by blitzing often and leaving Davis single-covered by lesser athletes.

The Giants have allowed a lot of tight end production this season but have a game plan to slow down Davis.

Michael Boley is a very good coverage linebacker, and the Giants can feature three safeties in their “big nickel” package, even against heavier run personnel.

That could be helpful against Davis.

Kenny Phillips, in particular, can match up reasonably well—with some help—against Davis.

New York has struggled against the pass in the red zone, but San Francisco’s red-zone offense has not been good.

Davis is also the 49ers' best red-zone option as well as their most explosive playmaker in the passing game.

Still, the Giants have allowed just one offensive touchdown in two playoff wins.

Don’t Abandon the Run

New York is a much better passing team, but the Giants like to have offensive balance and do not want to become predictable on offense.

Staying balanced forces defenses to honor the run, which opens up the Giants’ play-action attack, which Manning executes very well.

Ahmad Bradshaw is the lead back. He runs with aggression and quickness and is also a very good receiver and pass protector.

Saints running back Darren Sproles caught 15 passes last week so New York may try to exploit that.

Brandon Jacobs has been effective of late, showing flashes of the aggressive, power-running style from earlier in his career.

New York’s run game has been outstanding in the red zone, but no red-zone defense is better against the run than the 49ers, who allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season (two of them in their Week 17 win at St. Louis).

They held New Orleans to just 37 yards on the ground.

The Picks

Giants (+3) over 49ERS: San Francisco has had a renaissance season, improving from 6-10 to 13-3 and an NFC title game at home under Jim Harbaugh. But the 49ers are running into a hot team that has been here before, with many of the Giants’ key players being veterans of the Super Bowl run four years ago. And in the NFL playoffs, experience kills.

PATRIOTS (-9) over Ravens: There has been a lot of debate regarding the wisdom of Ed Reed calling out his quarterback earlier this week. The Ravens couldn’t muster a sack against T.J. Yates last week and Tom Brady has light years’ more experience than the Texans’ rookie. The Ravens’ defense will be challenged by New England’s two big receiving threats at tight end and, ultimately, that will be the difference.