Giants vs. 49ers: Alex Smith Will Be X-Factor in San Francisco Victory

In advance of Saturday's NFL Championship game, we will hear talking heads cite the San Francisco 49ers premiere rush defense against the worst rush offense in the NFL. We will also hear about the Giants' stifling pass rush going up against a quarterback who has been sacked the most of any in the league. 

Of course, this is due to the increased magnitude of the game and the fact that there are only four teams remaining for an opportunity to bring home the Lombardi Trophy. 

Even with all the talk about Alex Smith's clutch performance against the New Orleans Saints last Saturday, there are certain points that the media is going to miss. 

Today, I plan to inform you of these points and show you how Alex Smith will be a huge X-factor in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. In fact, I will prove to you that he will be the reason why the San Francisco 49ers will be booking flights to Indianapolis in February. 

So, let's take a look. 

Home Field Advantage

Alex Smith has won 11 of his last 12 home starts, dating back to a Week 5 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2010. During this span, the only home game that the San Francisco 49ers have lost was to the Dallas Cowboys back in September. 

Even in that game, Alex Smith completed 67 percent of his passes for a quarterback rating of near triple digits. It took a fluky overtime pass from Tony Romo to Jesse Holley for the Cowboys to pull that game out. 

These are Alex Smith's home stats over this 12-game span: 60.0 completion percentage, 2,646 yards, 22 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 102.3 quarterback rating. 

Over those 12 games, the San Francisco 49ers are averaging over 29 points per outing and have a plus-32 turnover margin. 

Unless you are completely biased here, these are statistics that are extremely hard to discount. In short, Alex Smith has been getting the job done at home at a record clip over the last year and a half. 

Mistake-Free Football Currently on a Record Pace

In 1989, Joe Montana went a five-plus game stretch without throwing an interception. Over that span he threw over 180 passes without being picked. 

During last week's stunning victory over the New Orleans Saints, Alex Smith broke Montana's record. He has now thrown 221 consecutive passes without being intercepted. The fact that No. 11 has not thrown an interception since Thanksgiving is a prime example of how he has matured as a quarterback. He fully understands that throwing the ball away or taking a sack is far better than turning the ball over. This is something that some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL still don't understand.

Eli Manning has been Clutch, But so has Alex

The 49ers' final-second win against the New Orleans Saints last Saturday marked their sixth fourth-quarter comeback of the season. Once again, a Joe Montana franchise record came crashing down at the hands of Alex Smith. Montana had five fourth-quarter comebacks in 1989. 

Alex Smith also stands alone in the history books of the entire NFL. His two fourth-quarter, game-winning drives were the first to happen in the final four minutes of a postseason game in the history of the league.  

While Alex Smith was somewhat pedestrian in the first half of this season, he comes up big in the second half. He has a quarterback rating of 101.3 in the second half, throwing 10 more touchdowns (13) than interceptions (3). 

Steady Improvement over the Last Three Seasons 

All the talk over the last few days has been about how Alex Smith has transformed his game under Jim Harbaugh. While this may be true, his success as a starting quarterback cannot be limited to just the last 17 games. 

While it was a gradual climb the two seasons prior to 2011, Alex Smith has improved as a starter in the NFL. In the past two years, Smith completed over 60 percent of his passes, threw 10 more touchdowns than interceptions and had a quarterback rating in the 80s. This came off of three seasons in which he threw 13 more interceptions than touchdowns and had an combined quarterback rating of 62.9

The NFL is All About "What You Have Done for me Recently"

I have been a supporter of Alex Smith over the course of the last three seasons. This has caused many of my readers to question my knowledge of the NFL in general and the quarterback position, specifically. 

Now, the national media has started to understand that Alex Smith is an above-average quarterback who can lead his team to a championship. His success with Harbaugh in 2011 and toward the back end of the 2010 season is a prime example of this.

So, when you look at Alex Smith against Eli Manning on Sunday, don't think that it is a one-sided matchup. Don't buy into the East Coast hype. Instead, look into the eyes of Alex Smith and understand he is a completely different quarterback than what we have seen in the past. He is a different quarterback at home. And, he is a much different quarterback when the game is on the line. 

In crunch time, you either have it or you don't—Alex has it.