AFC Championship 2012: Why Baltimore Will Pull off Monumental Upset

The New England Patriots are a nine-point favorite against the Baltimore Ravens this weekend. They are at home. They have superstar quarterback Tom Brady. 

So how could the Ravens possibly stand a chance?

Baltimore's Defense

The last time this Patriots team played a defense like Baltimore's was...well, never. Okay, Week 8 was probably the closest, when New England went up against Pittsburgh and lost.

In their last six games, the Patriots have matched up against the Broncos twice, the Bills, the Dolphins, the Redskins and the Colts.

Not exactly the most menacing opponents. 

When the Pats faced Pitt back in October, the Steelers controlled every aspect and managed to keep Tom Brady off the field for the majority of the game. And that is going to be the top priority for the Ravens.

Keep Brady on the sidelines for as long as possible. That leads to the next point.

New England's Defense

The Patriots are 27th in opposing yards per pass, 31st in opposing passing yards per game and 24th in opposing yards per carry.

They are bad against the pass and they are bad against the run. There's no getting around that little fact. 

Joe Flacco has never been at his best in the playoffs during his career, but he won't need to be perfect against the Patriots.

Throws that weren't working against the Texans will work against the Patriots and Ray Rice will have much more running room to take the pressure off of Flacco.

A good, well-balanced offense will keep Brady off the field, and Baltimore will be able to play the ugly, low-scoring type of game it wants.

Even if it turns into a shootout, which it likely won't, the Ravens have the offense to keep up.

Which Ravens Team Will Show Up?

Baltimore was clearly one of the best teams in the NFL when it was at home. But this one is in New England, and the Ravens have been far from perfect on the road.

Who will show up?

Will it be the team that lost winnable games at Jacksonville, Seattle and San Diego? Or will it be the team that upset Pittsburgh and handled Cincinatti on the road?

I'm of the belief that veterans and a good coach will have a team playing at full potential come playoff time, and the Ravens have both of those. 

They've played down to opponents at times this season, but they won't have to worry about that on Sunday, as they are the clear underdog.