Broncos vs. Patriots: Who Holds the Edge in Every Phase of the Game?

This game is more than just any other game for the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos.

For the Patriots, it's a chance at playoff retribution. It's a chance to begin healing years of playoff wounds.

For the Broncos, it's a chance to pour salt on that wound while pushing the clock back an hour, keeping the carriage from turning back to a pumpkin as they get ready for Tebow time.

Although the emotional dynamic of the game will be different, the components of the game remain the same. Who holds the edge across the board?

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter. 

Patriots Passing Game vs. Broncos Pass Defense

There are two primary factors to consider in this matchup: the Patriots protection vs. the Broncos pass rush, and the Patriots receiving weapons vs. the Broncos back seven.

The Patriots did a great job of keeping Tom Brady clean in the last meeting, and all season long for that matter. They let up two sacks when they faced the Broncos, one of which came in garbage time. On the season, he was brought down 32 times total.

The primary matchup to watch will be the Broncos' edge rushers against the Patriots tackles. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil accounted for 21 of the team's 41 sacks, while the Patriots' starting tackles gave up 10 sacks (according to Pro Football Focus).

The Broncos gave it a heck of an effort by taking away Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker, and were effective in doing so. The problem the Broncos ran into last time was that the Patriots had a great deal of protection for Brady, and that allowed him to find his open man.

If the protection is there, which it should be, expect the Patriots offense to get moving and stay moving.

If not, expect to have big-time flashbacks to the three previous playoff losses.

Advantage: Patriots

Patriots Running Game vs. Broncos Run Defense

The Patriots aren't exactly known for their hard-nosed running game, but they were able to pick up 141 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 36 carries in their last meeting with the Broncos. 

That may have been a feat for the Patriots offense, but it's not as though the Broncos run defense is one of the best in football. They let up 126 rushing yards per game during the regular season, and over four yards per carry.

Put it this way: The Steelers gained 156 rushing yards on 23 carries without star running back Rashard Mendenhall and starting center Maurkice Pouncey. 

Stevan Ridley has flashed a lot of potential this season, and this could be a big game for him as well as the rest of the backfield. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been very effective at the goal line.

They don't have to be deadly; in the end, it comes down to New England's ability to simply be effective in the running game.

Advantage: Patriots

Broncos Passing Game vs. Patriots Pass Defense

Tim Tebow is possibly the most polarizing passer in football. In the span of one game, he validates both his supporters and his haters with his throws. He is a great improvisational quarterback, scrambling around the pocket to make big throws and allow his receivers time to get open.

The Patriots secondary couldn't cover a receiver if they had a blanket. They gave up the second-most passing yards this season (and in NFL history) behind only the Green Bay Packers. Their defensive passer rating of 83.1 is evidence of their struggles in the passing game.

They were able to get better pressure this season, but that was with Andre Carter, who has been out since the Broncos game and isn't coming back.

That being said, the Broncos will be without one of their best receivers in Eric Decker. The Broncos have proven they don't need to be consistent in the passing game, but if they can get those one or two key big plays, that should be enough to hang in there.

The Patriots have likely been coached all week on not giving those big plays up, and now it's just a matter of going out to execute. But with their struggles all season long, they will likely give up at least one of those big plays.

Advantage: Broncos

Broncos Running Game vs. Patriots Run Defense

The Patriots run defense was gashed on the ground for 639 yards and 5.7 yards per carry in the final four games. That's not exactly a great stat to take into a game against the NFL's No. 1-ranked rush offense.

The Broncos were able to pick up 252 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns against the Patriots. A majority of that production came in the first quarter, when the Broncos ran for 167 yards and a pair of scores in the first 15 minutes of regulation. The Patriots were able to make some adjustments, mainly switching from a two-gapping front to a one-gap front, which allowed defenders to slice into the backfield and make plays more freely.

There's also the small side note about Willis McGahee missing the second half with an injury, and those three costly fumbles that really turned the tide of the game.

The running game will be a big factor if the Broncos are able to keep it close. Whether they're able to do so or not remains to be seen, but if it turns into a shootout, the Broncos may not have a choice but to abandon the run.

Advantage: Broncos

Special Teams

The Broncos got a bit of harrowing news when they learned that their long snapper Lonie Paxton will miss Saturday's game. That could prove to be a key if the game comes down to a field goal.

That being said, Matt Prater has gotten it done from long range all season long, and notably kicked a 59-yard field goal against the Bears to send the game into overtime, followed by a 52-yarder to win it.

Perhaps the most underrated weapon on the Broncos roster, though, is their punter. Britton Colquitt gets more work than almost any punter in the league with 101 punts on the season, but pins opponents inside the 20 on 32.8 percent of his punts. His average of 47.4 yards per punt puts him among the top 10 punters in the league.

Patriots punter Zoltan Mesko hasn't been used very often, with just 57 punts on the season, but is a fairly deadly punter himself. He is averaging 46.5 yards per punt and pinning opponents inside the 20 on a whopping 42.1 percent of his punts.

Meanwhile, kicker Stephen Gostkowski hasn't been his usual self this season, having made just 84.8 percent of his kicks. That still makes him more accurate than Prater, though, who has made just 76 percent of his kicks. 

The Broncos do, however, have a decided advantage in the return game. They average a full two yards more per punt return than the Patriots, and have returned two punts for touchdowns. They also average three yards more per kick return.

If it turns into a battle of field position, that could be key, but the Patriots' kicking units are strong enough to give New Englanders confidence.

Advantage: Patriots

Coaching

Let's not make more of the Josh McDaniels situation than it truly is. Although it may provide the Patriots a slight edge in terms of scouting, McDaniels won't likely have any insight to offer which the Patriots wouldn't have seen watching the tape on the Broncos.

Bill Belichick is 3-1 all-time against John Fox, with his lone loss coming in a regular-season meeting the season after Belichick's Patriots beat Fox's Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII. 

Fox has done a great job with Tebow up to this point, but Belichick has simply seen it all at this point in his career. He brings his 5-3 (.625) career postseason record to Foxboro and matches wits with Belichick, who has an impressive 15-6 (.714) record in the postseason.

The Patriots haven't gotten it done in the postseason for a while, but if there's one guy who can get them as motivated as ever to do it, it's Belichick.

Advantage: Patriots

Conclusion

The Broncos' best chance at a victory is to generate a heavy pass rush on Tom Brady, get a turnover or two and stay clean on the turnover sheet themselves. 

It seems like a simple enough formula in theory; it's just a formula that, statistically, seems tough to accomplish.

The Patriots' high-powered offense looks insurmountable for the Broncos, but if the Broncos defense can keep them in the game, it could be a little too close for comfort.

That doesn't appear likely, though.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 20