NFL Playoffs 2012: 4 Keys for the Giants against the Packers, Plus ATS Picks

What was a much-anticipated rematch between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers turned into something else this week.

Green Bay was shaken after the death earlier this week of Michael Philbin, the 21-year-old son of Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. Michael Philbin’s body was recovered from the Fox River on Monday and preliminary autopsy results indicate the young man drowned.

That has, understandably, put a damper on a lot of the pregame buildup.

These teams met in Week 13, a 38-35 Green Bay victory. The battle between Super Bowl Most Valuable Players didn’t disappoint, either, as Packer quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns, while Eli Manning had 347 yards and three scores for the Giants.

Rodgers is 2-0 in his only two career starts against New York and is coming off a season for the ages. In 15 games, Rodgers threw for 45 touchdowns and 4,643 yards. He was intercepted just six times and posted the highest quarterback rating in NFL history at 122.5.

Manning fell just short of 5,000 yards passing, finishing with 4,933, and was 23-for-32 for 277 yards and three touchdowns in last Sunday’s 24-2 wild-card win over the Atlanta Falcons.

The Packers have won 13 straight games at Lambeau Field, but this is the first playoff game played there since the Giants beat the Packers 23-20 in overtime to win the 2007 NFC Championship.

What follows are four keys to a potential Giants victory against the Packers, plus my divisional playoff picks against the spread.

Don’t. Freak. Out.

Walking into the home of the Super Bowl champs, a team that went 15-1 this season, can be overwhelming.

But these teams met in Week 13 and New York nearly upset the then-unbeaten Packers before losing on a field goal at the gun, 38-35.

Eli Manning has had a lot of success at Lambeau Field, winning a playoff game there four years ago.

Obviously, Green Bay didn’t play last week and rested many of their starters, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, in Week 17, so it’s possible the Packers could have a little rust for this game.

But the fans in Green Bay will be loud and they will be fired up, so emotions will be high from the opening kickoff on.

Secondary Has to Keep It in Front

The Packers have an elite deep passing attack.

Until a few weeks ago, the Giants had a very porous pass defense, and there are certainly members of the secondary who can be burned deep.

But with the defensive line healthy, the Giants' secondary has been more aggressive of late and has taken away the big plays.

Against Atlanta last week, cornerback Aaron Ross was concussed and safety Deon Grant injured his groin.

This could compromise the depth in the secondary, although both players are expected to play this week.

If either is limited, that could be a huge problem against the lethal receivers Green Bay can run out there, including Greg Jennings, who returns after missing the final three games of the regular season with a knee injury.

The Giants like to play big nickel with three safeties against an opponent’s base offense. That may not be a viable option if Grant is limited.

Playing against Rodgers is an extreme challenge, in part because the Packer offense throws a lot at a defense with shifts and motion.

Keep Matthews Away

Clay Matthews didn’t have a great 2011 by the numbers, but that’s only because defenses were much, much more aware of him this season.

He can take over a game, but because Green Bay lacks a second pass-rush threat to complement Matthews, offenses can take him out by giving him a lot of attention in their pass-blocking schemes.

The Packers like to move Matthews around, but most of the time he will be the responsibility of right tackle Kareem McKenzie, who has not had a great season.

Only two teams in the league had fewer sacks than the Packers during the regular season, and Matthews had Green Bay’s only sack in their Week 13 win in New Jersey.

Get to Rodgers

This has to be Green Bay’s primary concern entering this game.

Rodgers is not an easy quarterback to sack because of his athletic ability and pocket awareness, and the Packers do get tackles Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga back for this game.

Green Bay is stable in the middle of the line, with Pro Bowler Scott Wells anchoring from his center position.

The Packers will see a lot of the Giants’ quick pass-rush package, the one that features four defensive ends across the front.

Justin Tuck causes a lot of problems on the interior of the line with his quickness. Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are finally healthy, which has made a difference for the entire New York defense.

Jason Pierre-Paul is about as dangerous off the edge as any player in the league and was dominant in the Week 13 meeting.

Rodgers can destroy a blitz, but because the front four is healthy and effective, it’s doubtful New York will bring any added pressure in this game.

The Picks

The easiest thing to do is to become trapped in now. The wild-card teams all played last weekend and that’s what we remember. It’s easy to get lulled into a false sense of how good the wild-card teams are, while forgetting there is a reason the four teams that didn’t play last week were idle—it’s because they’re better teams.

So with that out of the way, here are the picks against the spread for the Divisional Round, with home teams in CAPS.

Saints (-4) over 49ERS: New Orleans is just so hot right now, it’s hard to go against them, even outside on grass.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Broncos: Denver’s playing with house money right now, but I just can’t see New England losing its first playoff game at home three straight years.

Texans (+9) over RAVENS: I like Baltimore to win this game. But I like the combination of the big running backs and a tough defense to keep Houston close.

Giants (+9) over PACKERS: Do I think Green Bay will win the game? Yes, yes I do. Do I think it will be a runaway? No, no I don’t. These teams battled to the wire in Week 13, and I don’t see any reason to think this won’t be another nip-and-tuck affair.

Wild-Card Round: 3-1
Regular season: 142-98-14