Surprise Landing Spots for Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Top MLB Free Agents
This winter's free-agent market has been many things, including extremely lucrative yet also frustratingly slow-moving. But what it hasn't been at any point is surprising.
Is it too much to ask that this changes between now and spring training?
It's a question worth asking because, frankly, things are so dull right now that one can't help but veer into wishful thinking. Yet the idea was also inspired by Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who pondered an interesting possibility for Blake Snell's free agency.
"I think this is one of these situations now where it could go to any surprise team," Heyman said of the two-time Cy Young Award winner's market during a B/R live stream on Wednesday, adding: "I think [Snell] may be like Prince Fielder, who was never connected to Detroit, right? And then...he ended up signing for $214 million."
This got me thinking about unusual suspects for Snell and the other top remaining free agents: Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman. I ultimately settled on three long-shot speculative fits for each, though in doing so limited it to teams that haven't been solidly connected to any of the four. Gotta keep it interesting, you know.
Take this for what it is, which is throwing things at the wall with no real expectation that anything will stick. But if any of these ideas does prove prophetic, well, you heard it here first.
Matt Chapman Surprise No. 3: Milwaukee Brewers
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Why It Would Be Surprising
There's been weirdly little buzz around Chapman this winter, which is odd considering he's a four-time Gold Glover with 155 home runs in seven seasons. Yet he's still a candidate to clear $100 million, if not $150 million.
The Brewers spending that kind of money on a free agent? Yeah, it's hard to believe.
They've never gone over $80 million with a single free-agent signing, and that was six years ago and it came at a time when they had more spending flexibility than usual. That's not quite the case right now.
Why It Would Make Sense
Then again, the Brewers kinda-sorta-definitely need to upgrade at third base.
Andruw Monasterio is the projected starter at the hot corner, and he's coming off a rookie season marked by just a .678 OPS and 1.3 rWAR in 92 games. A team that would contend for a second straight National League Central title can and should do better.
While the Brewers don't have a ton of flexibility, they are still projected below their 2023 payroll even after agreeing to sign Rhys Hoskins. And more flexibility awaits next winter, when about $28 million in salaries will come off the books when Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames reach free agency.
Matt Chapman Surprise No. 2: Boston Red Sox
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
Let me just check my notes...[brief pause]...yup, Rafael Devers still exists and he's still one of the best offensive third basemen in baseball.
Indeed, Devers is one of the most dangerous hitters at any position right now. Since 2019, he has more total bases than everyone except Freddie Freeman and Marcus Semien and more extra-base hits than anyone.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are sending strong signals that they're going to lower payroll in 2024. With only a $22 million gap between their 2023 spending and projected 2024 spending, signing Chapman would likely nix that plan.
Why It Would Make Sense
To hear it from Heyman, however, the Red Sox may yet have a big move in them:
Granted, it's Montgomery who's on Boston's radar and he and Chapman are [checks notes again] not the same person. But if the Red Sox end up missing out on the former, a pivot to the latter wouldn't be the worst idea.
Devers is a heck of a hitter, alright, but he was a big part of the problem for a Red Sox defense that ranked last in MLB with minus-50 Outs Above Average in 2023. That's also true of Triston Casas, so signing Chapman to play third with Devers moving to first base and Casas moving to designated hitter would be a substantial net positive for Boston's defense.
Matt Chapman Surprise No. 1: Los Angeles Angels
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
The Angels dropping big money on a third baseman? Didn't they just do that?
Well, maybe not "just," but last season was only the fourth year of Anthony Rendon's seven-year, $245 million contract. That contract (and Rendon himself, mind you) are still around, so now isn't exactly an ideal time to sign another third baseman.
What the Angels really need, of course, is pitching. They've been regularly connected to Snell in this regard, and it's such a good fit that it should surprise nobody if it comes to fruition.
Why It Would Make Sense
Well, one thing about Rendon is that he's nobody's favorite baseball player right now. But another, more relevant, thing is that he's no longer a viable everyday third baseman.
Rendon has played in only 30 percent of the Angels' games over the last three years, and neither his bat nor his glove has been especially functional as he's racked up just 1.0 rWAR. A guy like that belongs in the DH slot, where the Angels happen to have an opening.
And if the Angels are nothing else right now, they're a team that can spend. There's a $43 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and project to spend in 2024.
Jordan Montgomery Surprise No. 3: Minnesota Twins
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
Montgomery is fresh off a career-best season that ended with him basking in World Series glory. You thus can't blame the guy for wanting to get paid, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that the lefty seeks to top Aaron Nola's $172 million guarantee.
The Twins have spent that kind of money on a free agent before, but only once and it was on a $200 million deal with Carlos Correa just last winter.
Their circumstances couldn't be more different this winter. After running a $154 million payroll in 2023, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the Twins want to be in the $125-140 million range this year.
Why It Would Make Sense
We can agree the Twins need an ace-caliber pitcher, right? They still have one in the form of Pablo López, but also one less in the wake of Sonny Gray's departure to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Meanwhile, their 2024 payroll projects to open at $123 million. Even a $25 million per year deal with Montgomery—who's posted a 3.34 ERA and 367 innings over the last two seasons—would barely put them over the high end of their desired payroll range.
From there, it wouldn't be impossible to subsequently cut some salary. Like, for example, through trades of Jorge Polanco and/or Max Kepler. From what's been out there this winter, just because both are around doesn't mean neither is available.
Jordan Montgomery Surprise No. 2: San Diego Padres
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
Speaking of teams that want to cut payroll, the Padres have been approaching payroll-cutting as if it's an Olympic sport.
After spending $250 million on payroll in 2023, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that San Diego wants to end up south of $200 million for this season.
This was a big part of why they traded Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, though that deal was also done so they could get back Michael King and Randy Vásquez for their rotation. Between the two of them, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, said rotation might now have enough pieces to succeed in 2024.
Why It Makes Sense
Ah, but even four viable starters does not a complete rotation make. Unless they're serious about using Pedro Avila as a starter, the Padres need at least one more guy.
While they could go for a lower-cost option than Montgomery, it doesn't take much to argue that they need someone with his reliability. For as much as nobody can diminish Darvish's and Musgrove's track records, neither ended last season in good health.
Besides, the Padres could sign Montgomery and still open the year with a payroll well under $200 million. As of now, said payroll is only projected at $155 million.
Jordan Montgomery Surprise No. 1: Baltimore Orioles
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
Whereas the Twins and Padres could merely use a top-of-the-rotation pitcher of Montgomery's caliber, the Orioles truly need one alongside Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez.
There's nonetheless a reason that they've more so been connected to Dylan Cease and other trade candidates, and it's that they have prospects in much more abundance than they have funds.
A Nola-like deal with Montgomery would top Chris Davis' seven-year, $161 million deal from 2016 as the biggest splash in Baltimore's history. The omens there are all bad, which is to say nothing of the stingy mindset of the club's ownership.
Why It Makes Sense
Yet the Orioles' need for a pitcher like Montgomery is real. He could at least replace the 192 innings they got from Kyle Gibson last season, and perhaps do so much more.
Montgomery has been the sixth-most valuable pitcher in MLB since the Cardinals got him from the Yankees in Aug. 2022, and he'd figure to do especially well at Oracle Park at Camden Yards. Since its left field wall moved back in 2022, only Progressive Field has been more forgiving to left-handed hurlers.
Otherwise, it's not as if the Orioles are in danger of buckling under the weight of their payroll. It's projected at only $88 million for 2024, well short of the club's high of $164 million from 2017.
Cody Bellinger Surprise No. 3: Detroit Tigers
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
Part of the reason you sign a guy like Bellinger is because you want someone who can play first base, center field and right field equally well. Unless you're the Tigers, who are set at those positions.
They have Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, both former elite prospects, at first base and right field. Parker Meadows isn't yet a household name, but he could be soon if he keeps making stellar plays in center like this one:
As to other matters, the Tigers haven't been spending as much under Scott Harris as they were in the last days of Al Avila's stewardship of the front office. Harris' biggest deal was for $24 million, or about a 10th of what Bellinger could command.
Why It Makes Sense
Maybe the Tigers don't need Bellinger for defensive purposes, but what about his offense?
The .881 OPS he posted last season would have led the team with plenty to spare in 2022 or 2023, which shouldn't take anyone by surprise. The Tigers ranked 30th in MLB in scoring for the former season, and only improved to 28th for the latter.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are projected to open 2024 with a payroll $15 million lighter than what they spent in 2023 and about $70 million lighter than the club's peaks of 2016 and 2017. As such, making a push for contention by signing Bellinger would seem eminently doable.
Cody Bellinger Surprise No. 2: Washington Nationals
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
Whereas the Tigers are on the cusp of breaking out of a years-long rebuild, the Nationals still have a long way to go with theirs.
Their rebuild didn't begin in earnest until 2021, and even a 16-win improvement from 2022 to 2023 still resulted in a 91-loss season. They're still waiting on their best prospects, including fifth-ranked outfielder Dylan Crews and seventh-ranked outfielder James Wood.
They thus have reasons to hold off on spending, which is to say nothing of what's going on at the ownership level. Though it remains unclear if and when anything will go through, the team is technically for sale.
Why It Would Make Sense
It's times like these that the Nationals should remember Jayson Werth.
Their nine-figure pact with him came on the heels of a 93-loss 2010 season, but they knew they had Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg in their future. Signing was basically getting a head start on the good stuff, and it worked. They won 80 games in 2011 and then averaged 91 wins over the next eight seasons.
There's similar sense in adding Bellinger, especially since the Nats are weak at center field (where Victor Robles is still around, for some reason) and first base. And while they are projected to increase their payroll by $19 million, they could add another $70 million and would still have only matched the franchise record from 2019.
Cody Bellinger Surprise No. 1: Colorado Rockies
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
In the unlikely event that Bellinger ends up on the Rockies, the only practical explanation would be that they made him the best offer.
Denver certainly isn't where anyone would want to go for the sake of winning. The Rockies followed a 94-loss 2022 season with a franchise-worst 103-loss effort last year. And their farm system? With B/R's Joel Reuter ranking it 15th in MLB, it's the definition of "middling."
Whether Bellinger is even needed on the Rockies is another question. First base is likely to be Kris Bryant's home in 2024. And in Gold Glover Brenton Doyle, they have a proper defensive sensation roaming center field.
Why It Makes Sense
The Rockies do have an opening in right field, however, and Thomas Harding of MLB.com noted the club's preference is to add a left-handed hitter to help out there and elsewhere.
Sounds like a job for Bellinger. And if the Rockies were to sign him, it wouldn't be their first unexpected mega-deal with a Scott Boras client. It wasn't even two years ago that they pulled off one of those in signing Bryant.
The Rockies also have some spending wiggle room, at least under the assumption that they could match last year's payroll. They could sign Bellinger for $28 million per year and get that done.
Blake Snell Surprise No. 3: Texas Rangers
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
If the Rangers are going to add a left-handed starter, it's probably going to be Montgomery.
Returning to Texas is the southpaw's preference, according to Randy Miller of NJ.com, and Heyman's reporting from Wednesday indicates the interest is mutual:
Even though they're both ace lefties, that the Rangers would be in on Montgomery but not Snell makes sense. Beyond being more of a known quantity, Montgomery is likely cheaper. That matters at a time when the team is facing uncertainty with its broadcasting arrangement.
Why It Makes Sense
If recent history has taught us anything, it's that the Rangers can't help themselves when a multi-time Cy Young Award winner is available.
This was the case when they traded for Corey Kluber in 2019 and for (the since-injured) Max Scherzer last summer. It was also the case when they signed Jacob deGrom last winter. Signing Snell, who led MLB with a 2.25 ERA last season, would thus be a movie we've seen three times before.
And without getting too into the weeds, clarity for the aforementioned broadcasting arrangement is on the horizon. If it proves to be the favorable kind for the Rangers, the funds for Snell may be there after all.
Blake Snell Surprise No. 2: Houston Astros
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Why It Would Be Surprising
The Astros weren't supposed to have "a ton" of payroll flexibility this offseason, so it came as a surprise that they were the team to sign Josh Hader to a record-setting contract.
Sort of, anyway. The Astros needed bullpen help as soon as Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek filed free agency, and then even more so when Kendall Graveman had shoulder surgery. Necessity is both the mother of invention and big-ticket signings, apparently.
Further spending on Houston's part is now hard to fathom. The club's luxury-tax payroll for 2024 is projected at $254.6 million. With just another $2.4 million in average annual value, it stands to trigger a 12 percent surcharge.
Why It Makes Sense
If ever there was a time for Astros owner Jim Crane to spare no expense, it's now.
With Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman heading into their final year under contract, 2024 could bring about the closing of the Astros' championship window. If they really want to put an end to the dynasty argument, another World Series title would do the trick.
Rather than merely recommended, another starter may be necessary. The Justin Verlander-Framber Valdez-Cristian Javier trio looks good on paper, but the former is old and the latter two were inconsistent in 2023. Signing Snell, then, would mean adding a bulwark against disaster.
Blake Snell Surprise No. 1: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Why It Would Be a Surprise
Yeah, yeah. Asking the Diamondbacks to do more than they already have may be an exercise in futility.
The reigning National League champs have already dropped $122 million on free agents, in addition to taking on an $11.3 million salary in the Eugenio Suárez trade. They're projected for a $133 million payroll, which would be a new high for the franchise.
And do they even need Snell? One could say no, as they already have a strong front four in Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt.
Why It Makes Sense
You know what's better than a strong front four? An elite front five.
That's what the D-backs would have if they found money for Snell, and nobody can say they won't need that kind of depth in this year's NL West race. Not unless the Los Angeles Dodgers pack up and move and take Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Yoshinobu Yamamoto with them, anyway.
Besides, Arizona's payroll is only set to increase about 14.5 percent over where it opened 2023. The last time they went to the World Series in 2001, a 20 percent payroll increase followed in 2002. Thus do I declare that the team's payroll should go even higher, darn it.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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