B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 10
We begin with a thoughtful and gentle reminder: Check the weather report.
With temperatures falling and the calendar dwindling, it's time to monitor how ugly weather will impact games—and specifically totals in those matchups.
Snow football is coming for those who celebrate, and celebrate we shall.
On the topic of celebrations, let's talk about last week. Our CFB picks finished 6-3 against the spread, We needed a bounce-back week, and we got one.
Before we turn our attention to this week's picks, let's revisit the good (and not-so-good) from the week that was.
The Good: Wisconsin (+14.5) vs. Ohio State: We earned this one. Although it never felt truly comfortable, Wisconsin managed to hang on and (barely) cover the two-touchdown spread. While we have burned by a half-point in recent weeks, it was nice to cash this.
The Bad: Purdue (+2.5) at Nebraska: Woof. This one never had a shot. Purdue tried to make it weird late in the game, but it was too late. Credit to Nebraska for a really nice run of games. Spoiler: More on this one to come.
With that complete, we're onto Week 10. As a warning, things get awfully weird below.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Clemson (+3) vs. Notre Dame
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Perhaps this one is a tad tricky to explain. After all, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney spent his week getting into it with callers on a radio show. Oh, and the Tigers have lost back-to-back games against Miami and NC State.
All is not well at Clemson, which is why this game will likely draw some of the heaviest one-sided betting we see all week. The public will be all over Notre Dame.
Still, the last two Irish road games have not been superb. They needed a miraculous effort to beat Duke and then lost by 13 to Louisville.
While Sam Hartman is the best collegiate player on the field, home field will be an enormous factor. We saw Clemson push Florida State on this field, and we're likely to see that again here.
The Tigers have issues. This is undeniable. But they pull a mild upset here to temporarily settle those concerns.
Iowa State (-2.5) vs. Kansas
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If the last pick was unpopular, well, this one is likely to be deeply unpopular.
Before we bet against the Jayhawks, let's give Kansas some love. Last week's win over Oklahoma was simply delightful. It also wasn't a fluke. Lance Leipold is a tremendous coach, and he's going to be an even richer man than he already was.
With that out of the way, cue hangover. It should be robust.
Kansas must go from a massive celebration to Ames, Iowa—a venue quite familiar with weird, ugly football games. It's also a place that knows how to spoil a good time.
Somewhat quietly, Iowa State has won four of the past five games. This includes a win over Oklahoma State, one of the hottest teams in the sport. The offense has come alive at just the right time.
The Cyclones are one of five teams in the Big 12 with a 4-1 conference record. And after a win this week, they'll stay in the mix.
Michigan State (+3) vs. Nebraska
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As always, let's start with a mini disclaimer. This is not revenge. I'm not fading Nebraska just because the Cornhuskers conquered me a week ago. This is an expedition in search of value.
And there seems to be a fair amount of value in this spot.
Nebraska is 5-3; Michigan State is 2-6. The Cornhuskers have won five of the past six games; the Spartans have now lost six in a row.
So, why is the line this small?
Nebraska has played just one game on the road since Week 2. To the Cornhuskers' credit, it was a convincing victory against Illinois. But the lack of travel is certainly a factor.
Michigan State, meanwhile, has been on the road for three of the last four games. The lone home contest came against Michigan, and it did not go well. (For what it's worth, it didn't go well for Nebraska, either.)
In a low-scoring, ugly game, Michigan State finds a way to keep it close. This one won't be easy on the eyes, although you already knew that.
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USC (+3.5) vs. Washington
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Are you sensing a theme? It's the week of the home underdog, and our next one is fascinating.
This is a conflicting bet for a few reasons. For starters, I am sitting on a handful of Michael Penix Jr. Heisman futures that I made before the season began. A loss for Washington would likely torpedo those.
But this point spread is fascinating when you consider just where these two teams were a few weeks ago.
Washington beat Oregon at home to become a serious player in the Pac-12 and the College Football Playoff. That, of course, is still the case. USC lost to Notre Dame. Then the Trojans lost to Utah. Then the Trojans nearly beat Cal.
Now? The No. 6 team in the first College Football Playoff Rankings is just a three-point favorite against an unranked team on a slide.
Since beating Oregon, Washington hasn't been quite right. The Huskies barely got past both Arizona State and Stanford, and the play is starting to look like more than an outlier.
As painful as it is, USC wins outright.
Utah (-11) vs. Arizona State
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We stay in the Pac-12, although we abandon the road underdog theme. Well, at least for a moment.
Utah is coming off a disappointing loss at home against Oregon. The Utes were dominated in that game, which is not something we're accustomed to seeing. It's also not something we are likely to see again.
Although Arizona State is 2-6, the Sun Devils are coming off an impressive win against Washington State and a slew of quality showings in the conference. This team is playing better undeniably, and the progress has been evident over the past six weeks.
But Utah still has an incredible home-field advantage. Don't let last week's result sway you from that reality. Oregon is simply that good. Arizona State, while improved, doesn't have the firepower to keep up.
The total, which is hovering in the low 40s, feels about right.
Utah 30, Arizona State 14.
Other Games on the Card
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Texas A&M (+3) at Ole Miss
This is a fascinating spread when you look at the record and rankings. With Jimbo Fisher coaching for his job, the Aggies pull off the upset.
Washington State (-13) vs. Stanford
It's been a brutal stretch for Wazzu, although this is the kind of game that helps heal a lot of wounds. Look for Washington State to win by enough.
Mississippi State (+3.5) vs. Kentucky
Back to the SEC we go for what could be an ugly football game. The Bulldogs struggle on offense, although the defense should keep this one close enough at home.
Middle Tennessee (+3) at New Mexico State
If I'm being honest, New Mexico State has burned me a handful of times already this year. Middle Tennessee, despite being 2-6, has had a much more difficult path.
Wyoming (-7) vs. Colorado State
While we faded Wyoming last week, we're back on the Cowboys in Week 10. This is still a really talented team, especially at home.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
