Handing Out Grades For Every Relevant MLB Rookie For the 2023 Season
The 2023 Major League Baseball season isn't over yet, but let's pretend like the season's top rookies have already taken their final exams.
So, how did they do?
Ahead are grades for 20 rookies who defined the '23 season, whether it was because they were hyped coming into the year or because they've since seized the spotlight through other means. Either way, each of them has seen enough action to allow for proper evaluation.
Using B/R's Joel Reuter's preseason rankings for MLB's top 100 prospects as a guide, let's count 'em down.
RHP Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
1 of 20
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 69 G, 19 GF, 70.2 IP, 59 H (4 HR), 60 K, 13 BB, 2.17 ERA
Preseason Rank: Unranked
Yennier Cano is one of two rookie pitchers who were named 2023 All-Stars in July, which is none too shabby for a guy who wasn't exactly the headliner of the trade that sent Jorge López to the Minnesota Twins last August.
Cano's success is largely tied to the utter dominance of his sinker, which is tied for third among its fellow sinkers in run value. Its 96.3 mph average velocity is a factor there, though a bigger one is the funky movement deriving from his funky arm slot.
Really the only fair criticism of Cano is that he hasn't dominated left-handed batters (.675 OPS) as much as right-handed batters (.566 OPS). But since he hasn't been totally ineffective against lefties, this is basically a nitpick.
Grade: A
RHP Kodai Senga, New York Mets
2 of 20
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 28 GS, 161.1 IP, 123 H (15 HR), 194 K, 74 BB, 2.96 ERA
Preseason Rank: Unranked
If the Mets got anything right last winter, it was their $75 million gamble that Kodai Senga could hack it as a major league pitcher.
He's not only hacked it, but thrived. And, especially since the middle of May, when he shrugged off a semi-cool start and began a run that's thus far seen him post a 2.61 ERA over 21 starts. That "ghost fork" of his has held batters to a .102 average in this span.
It's less than ideal that Senga has walked 4.1 batters per nine innings and that he has a reverse split against righties that's partially owed to his lack of a reliable breaking ball. But since none of this has prevented the aforementioned thriving, it's more fodder for the nitpick folder.
Grade: A
LF Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
3 of 20
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 135 G, 563 PA, 15 HR, 8 SB, .288 AVG, .339 OBP, .446 SLG
Preseason Rank: Unranked
At least relative to the utter disdain with which his $90 million contract was initially received, Masataka Yoshida has done quite well for himself in his rookie year.
His .288 average is the highest among the eight rookies with enough plate appearances to qualify for the AL and NL batting titles, for which it helps that he's one of the top contact hitters in either league. His strikeout rate is in the 93rd percentile.
Now, if only Yoshida offered more power or speed. Or better defense in left field, where he's tallied minus-13 Outs Above Average. And with his OPS down 214 points from the first half to the second half, consistency is still another thing he could work on.
Grade: C
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RHP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
4 of 20
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 25 GS, 142.0 IP, 122 H (13 HR), 141 K, 45 BB, 2.98 ERA
Preseason Rank: Honorable Mention
The Guardians came into 2023 with two of the highest-ranked pitching prospects on Reuter's list, with Gavin Williams ranking 32nd and fellow righty Daniel Espino even higher at No. 19.
To this end, at least, Tanner Bibee's 2023 story is one of the underdog variety. Before he was shut down on Sep. 17, he gave up more than four runs in just two of his 23 starts in compiling by far the most wins above replacement of any rookie hurler in the AL.
Bibee did have a reverse platoon split, with righties posting an OPS 186 points higher than what lefties had against him. But this is no fault of his stuff, as his fastball, slider and changeup each rated among the best pitches on the entire Guardians staff.
Grade: A
SS/2B Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
5 of 20
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 89 G, 403 PA, 16 HR, 14 SB, .290 AVG, .357 OBP, .507 SLG
Preseason Rank: Honorable Mention
Set the bar for entry at 400 plate appearances, and Matt McLain ranks first among rookies in average and second in OPS.
This is from a guy who hit just .232 at Double-A and .190 in the Arizona Fall League last year, but the markers of a legitimately good hitter are found in more places than just his results for 2023. Many of his peripherals make the grade, including a chase rate in the 72nd percentile.
Alas, an oblique strain has kept McLain sidelined since Aug. 27. There are also holes to poke in his breakthrough. He'll need to get better against offspeed pitches and at hitting away from Great American Ball Park. His OPS in road games is 204 points lower than the one he has at home.
Grade: B
CF James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 20
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 145 G, 541 PA, 22 HR, 15 SB, .244 AVG, .351 OBP, .434 SLG
Preseason Rank: Honorable Mention
James Outman celebrated being named to the Dodgers' Opening Day roster by going supernova out of the gate, hitting .348 with a 1.429 OPS through nine games.
He's obviously cooled off since then, and his red flags aren't exactly subtle. The percentiles for his whiff and strikeout rates are in single digits, and his .660 OPS against left-handed pitchers puts him right on the border of playability against them.
Then again, the Dodgers don't need Outman to be a star. His power and speed are more than good enough to justify keeping him in the lineup for his defense. He's been an out man indeed, posting eight Outs Above Average to rank among the league's top center fielders.
Grade: B
INF/OF Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
7 of 20
Age: 25
2023 Stats: 152 G, 647 PA, 22 HR, 15 SB, .270 AVG, .357 OBP, .456 SLG
Preseason Rank: Honorable Mention
The utility life clearly isn't for Spencer Steer. He's played five different positions in 2023 and, per Outs Above Average, has been above average at none of them.
On the plus side, there are good reasons why he ranks third among rookies in walks and first in runs batted in. He's shown strong discipline in posting a chase rate in the 81st percentile, and he likewise boasts positive run values against seven different pitches.
And unlike McLain, Steer hasn't needed the Reds' home ballpark to pad his stats. If anything, that his road OPS is 15 points higher than his home OPS is yet another data point to support the conclusion that this dude can hit.
Grade: B
3B Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
8 of 20
Age: 25
2023 Stats: 116 G, 492 PA, 23 HR, 1 SB, .271 AVG, .317 OBP, .480 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 45
Lest anyone forget, Josh Jung was one of just two rookies to get voted into the All-Star Game as a starter.
Perhaps some of that was Rangers fans stuffing the proverbial ballot boxes, but the honor was hardly wasted on Jung. He ended the first half hitting .280 with 19 home runs, and it surely wasn't lost on the Rangers faithful that he's also a talented defender at the hot corner.
Jung's rookie year has unfortunately taken turns for the worse since then. He broke his thumb trying to catch a line drive on Aug. 9 and has otherwise put up just a .679 OPS in the second half. These aren't necessarily long-term concerns, but the same can't be said of how both his walk and strikeout rates are in the 14th percentile.
Grade: B
RHP Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
9 of 20
Age: 25
2023 Stats: 30 G, 29 GS, 154.2 IP, 157 H (26 HR), 178 K, 54 BB, 5.12 ERA
Preseason Rank: No. 30
Hunter Brown should be having a good year, if for no other reason than he gets plenty of two outcomes that tend to produce good results for pitches.
These would be strikeouts and ground balls, for which Brown's rates are in the 76th and 86th percentiles, respectively. Yet that he has an ERA north of 5.00 anyway isn't some kind of paradox. He's truly been hit hard, most notably by way of 7th-percentile exit velocity.
Brown's tendency has been to throw too many meatballs, including with a four-seamer and curveball that have both been among the least valuable pitches on Houston's staff. Both pitches have good qualities, but that won't matter until he improves his command of them.
Grade: D
1B Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
10 of 20
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 132 G, 502 PA, 24 HR, 0 SB, .263 AVG, .367 OBP, .490 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 25
Suffice to say that Triston Casas' bat wasn't wholly functional in the early weeks of the season. He was still hitting under .200 as late as the Red Sox's 67th game on June 12.
Yet in 73 games between June 13 and the final action he saw on Sep. 14 before shutting it down with a shoulder injury, Casas flat-out raked. He hit .313 with 17 home runs to solidify himself as one of the 10 best batsmen in MLB during that span.
After posting minus-10 Outs Above Average at first base, defense is the one area where Casas will absolutely need to be better going forward. But since his results come paired with above average peripherals nearly across the board, his bat sure seems like the real deal.
Grade: B
RHP Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
11 of 20
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 20 GS, 113.1 IP, 97 H (11 HR), 106 K, 31 BB, 3.97 ERA
Preseason Rank: No. 21
It's not often that a rookie pitcher makes a first impression as good as Bobby Miller's. He became the third AL/NL pitcher to begin his career with four outings of at least five innings and one or fewer runs.
There have been ups and downs for Miller since then, and it's generally fair to ask if he should be better against righties. They've notably hit .288 against his slider, which was supposed to be his best out pitch.
All the same, Miller might be the best starter the Dodgers have going into the postseason. He at least has the best arm of the bunch. Since the start of August, his heater has averaged 99.1 mph as he's pitched to a solid 3.52 ERA in nine starts.
Grade: B
RHP Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
12 of 20
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 21 GS, 102.2 IP, 102 H (22 HR), 128 K, 39 BB, 5.52 ERA
Preseason Rank: No. 14
Taj Bradley looks like a promising power pitcher in two respects. These are the ones in which he's averaged 96.2 mph on his fastball and whiffed 11.2 batters per nine innings.
Yet actually good power pitchers don't surrender nearly two home runs per nine innings, least of all on their two best pitches. That's the case with Bradley, as 19 of the 22 long balls off him have been against his four-seamer and cutter.
The pitches themselves are fine, but even fine pitches are easily crushed when they catch too much of the strike zone. That's been Bradley's issue on both his fastball and cutter, so the command improvement project ahead of him is much the same as the one facing Brown.
Grade: D
RHP Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins
13 of 20
Age: 20
2023 Stats: 19 GS, 91.1 IP, 72 H (15 HR), 108 K, 31 BB, 3.15 ERA
Preseason Rank: No. 10
Eury Pérez may not have made Miller-like history upon debuting with the Marlins, but he was nothing less than sensational in allowing two or fewer runs in nine of his first 11 starts.
As such, it was a bummer when the Marlins sent the righty down to the minors on July 7. That it was for workload purposes was fair enough, but he wasn't the same between his recall on Aug. 7 and his shutdown with SI joint inflammation on Sep. 23. His eight outings yielded a 4.26 ERA.
Excitement is nonetheless in order for Pérez's future. In case that's not evident enough from his results, they sprung from a truly excellent repertoire of pitches that includes three secondary offerings that collectively held hitters to a .146 average.
Grade: B
SS Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees
14 of 20
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 153 G, 579 PA, 21 HR, 24 SB, .208 AVG, .284 OBP, .387 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 9
Since none of their other options was especially inspiring, the Yankees are still to be commended for not waiting to give Anthony Volpe his shot. Even still, it looks now like he wasn't quite ready for it.
True, his speed has been useful and he's provided more pop than one would expect from a 5'9", 180-pound middle infielder. Yet aside from a hot August, he's mostly been overmatched at the plate. The scouting report on him must mention breaking balls, against which he's fourth from the bottom in run value.
One could say Volpe has had a steadier hand on defense, but that wouldn't be entirely accurate. Defensive metrics (especially Defensive Runs Saved) rate him highly, but he also ranks fourth among his fellow shortstops with 17 errors.
Grade: D
OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
15 of 20
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 149 G, 618 PA, 25 HR, 50 SB, .285 AVG, .361 OBP, .508 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 8
If ever there was a right guy in the right place at the right time, it's Corbin Carroll in MLB in 2023.
His blazing speed and the bigger bases have gone together as well as everyone expected. He's 50-for-55 on stolen bases, and he's taken so many extra bases on other plays that it's hardly surprising he's scored an MLB-high 44 percent of the time he's gotten on base.
Throw in the .285 average and the 25 home runs, and the total package is one of the best offensive players in the league. The only real negatives are that Carroll has homered only four times since July 24 and that he runs inefficient routes on defense, but these are more minor annoyances than real shortcomings. Give him the NL Rookie of the Year already.
Grade: A
SS/3B Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
16 of 20
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 93 G, 404 PA, 11 HR, 33 SB, .229 AVG, .295 OBP, .390 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 7
It's a wonder that Elly De La Cruz's nickname isn't simply "Tools." He's the fastest runner in MLB, and his other feats include throws as fast as 100 mph and home runs as far as 458 feet.
It has, however, been a tale of two seasons for De La Cruz:
- First 30 G: .325 AVG, 28.9 K%
- Last 63 G: .178 AVG, 36.8 K%
When batting lefty, the switch-hitter has a clear hole up and away against fastballs. No thanks to his 22nd-percentile chase rate, he's also generally struggled against breaking balls. These indeed aren't totally abnormal shortcomings for a player his age, but his future stardom hinges on him getting some amount of control over them all the same.
Grade: D
RHP Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
17 of 20
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 22 GS, 116.1 IP, 115 H (16 HR), 124 K, 42 BB, 4.49 ERA
Preseason Rank: No. 6
De La Cruz isn't the only rookie who's had two seasons in one. That's also been the case for Grayson Rodriguez, who's been just a tad better since returning from a demotion on July 17:
- First 10 G: 7.35 ERA, 4.5 IP/GS
- Last 12 G: 2.66 ERA, 5.9 IP/GS
Rodriguez has come back throwing harder than he was earlier in the season, but it's his secondaries that he owes his success to. Since his return, batters are hitting just .151 against his slider, curveball and changeup.
As it's been hit at a .310 clip in this same span, Rodriguez's fastball actually remains something of a project. But if he can be this good without a truly dominant heater...well, just use your imagination.
Grade: B
RF Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
18 of 20
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 111 G, 439 PA, 16 HR, 7 SB, .274 AVG, .344 OBP, .447 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 4
Jordan Walker experienced the highest of highs and lowest of lows earlier in the season, making the Cardinals' Opening Day roster and going on a 12-game hitting streak only to find himself back in the minors before April was even over.
It wasn't until June 2 that Walker resurfaced again, and since then the 6'6", 245-pounder has shown his merit by hitting .274 with 14 home runs. He's especially feasted on fastballs and sliders, hitting .342 against the former and .330 against the latter.
Those will do nicely for foundational hitting skills, but Walker could stand to improve against slower offerings. And as for his minus-14 Outs Above Average in the outfield, let's just say he's too often looked like what he is: a converted infielder.
Grade: C
3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
19 of 20
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 145 G, 603 PA, 27 HR, 10 SB, .258 AVG, .328 OBP, .493 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 2
"It took a while for Gunnar Henderson to get going," he said, putting it lightly. Though the Orioles had no trouble winning games anyway, he was hitting only .170 after 33 games.
Cut to now, and Henderson leads all rookies with 27 home runs and 5.9 rWAR. He got rolling on May 13 and has kept it up mainly through the deployment of loud contact. He's in the 91st percentile for exit velocity and in the 95th for hard contact.
The Orioles haven't made it easy on Henderson to settle in on defense, where he's spent about equal time at shortstop and third base. Yet he's played both so well that he has 11 Defensive Runs Saved in total. All the more reason that he should win the AL Rookie of the Year, of course.
Grade: A
C Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets
20 of 20
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 118 G, 409 PA, 23 HR, 2 SB, .211 AVG, .284 OBP, .430 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 1
Francisco Álvarez had a run between May 17 and June 10 during which the hype seemed well and truly justified. It was an 18-game span in which he hit .290 and homered nine times.
As far as what he's been up to since then, the short answer is "not much." He's hit just .188 as he's mostly struggled against pitches that aren't four-seamers or sliders.
Because Álvarez is generally a low-walk, high-strikeout hitter, the Mets might just have to live with occasional slumps of this sort. But he's always going to be a home run threat if nothing else, and that's just on offense. On the other side of the ball, his elite framing will keep the team's pitchers happy.
Grade: C
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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