Grayson Rodriguez's Changeup and MLB's Next Wave of Filthy Pitches
Anyone who watches enough Major League Baseball should be well acquainted with the nastiest pitches in the game today. Think Jacob deGrom's fastball, Dylan Cease's slider, Corbin Burnes' cutter or really any offering that's as GIF-able as it is effective.
Yet if anyone's getting a little tired of the usual suspects, here are some happy tidings: All-new filthy pitches are on the way for 2023.
We want to provide an early look at 10 truly nasty pitches thrown by prospects who figure to get extensive looks in the majors this year. The set contains three four-seam fastballs, one cutter, two sliders, two curveballs and two changeups, all of which we've broken down using video, scouting reports and statistics.
Starting with a pitch that truly puts the "fast" in fastball, we'll hit the fastballs first before moving on to the secondary offerings on the list.
Cleveland Guardians: RHP Daniel Espino's Fastball
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Age: 22
2022 MiLB Stats: 4 G, 4 GS, 18.1 IP, 9 H (4 HR), 35 K, 4 BB, 2.45 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 19
Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com recently did a poll of MLB executives that asked, among other things, which pitching prospect possesses the best fastball. Daniel Espino was the decisive winner, getting more than twice as many votes as the runner-up.
You can see why just from looking at it:
As he sits in the mid-to-high 90s and has gone as high as 103 mph, velocity is naturally a major part of the appeal of Espino's fastball. But the other thing that should stand out when watching it is the arm-side run that he gets on it. Between that and its velocity, his heater vaguely resembles that of Hunter Greene.
Because he started last year at Double-A, Espino might have made it to the majors if knee and shoulder injuries hadn't conspired to bring his season to a halt on April 29. But provided he can stay healthy, it shouldn't be long before his fastball and a slider that also has a case as the best among prospects are overpowering hitters in The Show.
Miami Marlins: RHP Eury Pérez's Fastball
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Age: 19
2022 MiLB Stats: 18 G, 18 GS, 77.0 IP, 63 H (9 HR), 110 K, 25 BB, 3.97 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 10
Eury Pérez may only be 19 years old, but his youth didn't stop him from holding his own in 17 starts at the Double-A level in 2022, where the average player was more than five years older than him.
That goes to show what you can do when you're a 6'8", 220-pound hurler with a fastball that really gets on hitters. Take a look:
Pérez's fastball has good velocity, sitting in the mid-to-high 90s on average. But because his height allows him to release the ball that much closer to home plate, it plays even faster than that. It also has rising action that's evident even to the naked eye, which isn't always the case with other rising fastballs.
Pérez's potential for both extreme extension and extreme velocity call to mind Tyler Glasnow, but even he generally doesn't light up the movement readings with his fastball. That seems a good omen for Miami's teenaged prodigy, who'll also show a slider and changeup that likewise get plus grades when his time in the majors comes.
San Francisco Giants: LHP Kyle Harrison's Fastball
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Age: 21
2022 MiLB Stats: 25 G, 25 GS, 113.0 IP, 79 H (13 HR), 186 K, 49 BB, 2.71 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 15
That "186" up there is not a misprint. Kyle Harrison really did punch out that many batters in a journey that started at High-A and ended in Double-A last year, amounting to an average of 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
His primary weapon was a fastball that, as noted by MLB.com, generated a 41 percent swing-and-miss rate just at the Double-A level. You can catch a glimpse of a few of those whiffs here:
The moving parts in Harrison's delivery can't make it easy for hitters to track the ball to the point of release, and his release point itself borders on being more sidearm than overhand. That allows him to generate arm-side run on his fastball that moves in on lefties and away from righties, and with velocity that sits in the low-to-mid 90s to boot.
The best comp for Harrison's heater might be that of Andrew Heaney, though the former may do him better in both the velocity and movement departments when the Giants call him up to the majors. That should be this year, and perhaps sooner rather than later.
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Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Taj Bradley's Cutter
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Age: 21
2022 MiLB Stats: 28 G, 28 GS, 133.1 IP, 105 H (14 HR), 141 K, 33 BB, 2.57 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 14
It's sometimes fair to ask where the line is between a cutter and a slider, but Taj Bradley was kind enough to clear up exactly what he throws to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America in 2022: "It's never a slider. It's just a cutter that was a little bigger."
You're not going to get a better look at Bradley's cutter than in this video that MLB.com put together last September. But since we can't embed that, these highlights will have to do:
The break on Bradley's cutter is so slider-like that finding a comp for it in the majors is quite challenging. The best cutters belong to Corbin Burnes and Emmanuel Clase, but both are more traditional in the sense that they're defined by high velocity and late, biting movement more so than sweeping action to the glove side.
And yet, dare we say that there is a sort of Walker Buehler-ish quality to Bradley's slower-moving, harder-breaking cutter? It seems fair enough to roll with anyway, and the man himself should soon roll into the majors with the Rays after making a dozen starts at the Triple-A level in 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Bobby Miller's Slider
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Age: 23
2022 MiLB Stats: 24 G, 23 GS, 112.1 IP, 95 H (12 HR), 145 K, 37 BB, 4.25 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 21
He's not quite as tall as Eury Pérez, but Bobby Miller is nonetheless a similarly big dude (6'5", 220 pounds) who throws really hard. His fastball has been known to sit in the high 90s and touch 100 mph.
It's saying a lot, then, that his fastball is generally considered his second-best pitch after a slider that makes a few appearances in these highlights.
Geoff Pontes of Baseball America pegged Miller's slider with a well-above-average "Stuff+" grade of 135, remarking that it's made special by both its high-80s velocity and its extraordinary horizontal action. The most tempting comp to throw out there is to Matt Brash, whose wicked slider racked up a 45.2 swing-and-miss percentage last season.
It bears noting that Miller took some lumps last season, including as he served up 17 hits and four home runs over 21.1 innings at the Triple-A level. It would nonetheless be a major surprise if he isn't wearing Dodger blue at some point this season, particularly given that the club's rotation depth is less than endless.
Baltimore Orioles: LHP DL Hall's Slider
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Age: 24
2022 MiLB Stats: 24 G, 20 GS, 84.1 IP, 67 H (10 HR), 137 K, 50 BB, 4.48 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 42
We come now to a pitcher who's already gotten his closeup at the major league level, as DL Hall got to show off all his offerings in 11 late-season appearances for the Orioles last year.
There was some good stuff in there, including fastballs that got as high as 99 mph and sliders that altogether averaged 87.4 mph. Though opposing batters hit .438 against the latter, this video from spring training captures its inherent potential for dominance:
This is obviously a generalization, but it's rare to see a slider that moves that fast and yet also breaks that much. It's reminiscent of vintage Andrew Miller, though even he didn't sit in the high 80s with his slider when he was at his peak in 2016.
Of course, Hall is another guy who didn't have a great season in the minors last year, and there's some uncertainty as to whether his future is as a starter or as a reliever. Either way, though, it's hard to imagine major league hitters ever looking forward to seeing his slider.
Houston Astros: RHP Hunter Brown's Curveball
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Age: 24
2022 MiLB Stats: 23 G, 14 GS, 106.0 IP, 70 H (5 HR), 134 K, 45 BB, 2.55 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 30
Hunter Brown also made it to the majors last season, and he did such good work for the Astros that he even got to take part in the club's dominant run to the World Series championship.
Brown throws about as hard as the next top-tier pitching prospect, landing under 95 mph on only 15 of the 196 fastballs he threw in the majors last year. Yet the real star of the proverbial show is a curveball that figures to put plenty more dents in the ground like this one:
Executives surveyed by Jim Callis of MLB.com landed on Brown's curveball as the best of any prospect right now, and some of the readings it had in the majors last year cast light on why. Above all, it featured extreme downward break that even Dylan Cease couldn't match with his underrated curveball.
How Brown fits into Houston's plans for 2023 isn't entirely clear right now. It seems unlikely, however, that the team would have let Justin Verlander go if it wasn't sky-high on the young righty.
Washington Nationals: RHP Cade Cavalli's Curveball
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Age: 24
2022 MiLB Stats: 20 G, 20 GS, 97.0 IP, 75 H (3 HR), 104 K, 39 BB, 3.71 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 53
Even before he got lit up for seven runs over 4.1 innings in his debut with the Nationals, Cade Cavalli didn't have the most dominant season in the minors last year. All the same, "3" and "104" are numbers from above worth focusing on.
So many strikeouts and so few home runs surely must speak to something about Cavalli that attracts whiffs and ground balls. That something is his curveball, which looks like this:
The 33 curves that Cavalli threw for the Nationals on Aug. 26 of last year registered at an average of 84.9 mph, which is pretty fast as curveballs go. They also had more vertical and horizontal movement than the average hook, and he demonstrated an ability to mostly work down in the zone with it.
In other words, it's a pitch that should catch a lot of hitters swinging either over it or merely hitting the top half of it. Perhaps one could call this a hot take, but one can nonetheless see why Pontes rates it as the best curveball thrown by any prospect.
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Grayson Rodriguez's Changeup
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Age: 23
2022 MiLB Stats: 17 G, 17 GS, 75.2 IP, 47 H (2 HR), 109 K, 28 BB, 2.62 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 6
A strained lat likely robbed everyone of a chance to see Grayson Rodriguez suit up for the Orioles last year, as he had been laying waste to Triple-A hitters (i.e., a 2.09 ERA with 80 strikeouts over 56 innings) before the injury.
Though he also features a mid-to-high 90s fastball, Rodriguez's changeup is so good that Mayo's poll of executives tabbed it as the best secondary pitch of any kind among prospects. Perhaps the most interesting thing about it is how he throws it, as shown here:
So it's...a screwball? Not technically, but Rodriguez himself knows it's not exactly a "normal changeup." With velocity in the low 80s and tremendous fading action that figures to often take its trajectory away from left-handed batters, it's hard not to think back to the devastating cambio that Pedro Martínez had in his heyday.
Is that an unfair comp? Yeah, probably. But as Rodriguez is B/R's No. 1 pitching prospect and surely the future ace of the Orioles' staff, it's hard not to be hyperbolic when talking about him.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Gavin Stone's Changeup
10 of 10Age: 24
2022 MiLB Stats: 26 G, 25 GS, 121.2 IP, 92 H (3 HR), 168 K, 44 BB, 1.48 ERA
B/R Rank: No. 69
Whether Gavin Stone should rank higher is a fair question after the season he had in 2022. Even the move up to Triple-A didn't faze him, as his six starts there yielded a 1.16 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP.
Stone is a typical modern prospect in that he throws hard, generally averaging in the mid-to-high 90s with his fastball. His changeup, though, was his primary pitch last year, and it was so good that it checked ahead of even Rodriguez's in Ponte's rankings. This is it:
The roughly 10-mph difference between Stone's fastball and changeup is partly what makes the latter such a useful tool for keeping hitters off-balance. But let's be real. It's No. 1 charm is its ball-on-string movement to the arm side. It's no wonder that the pitch drew a swing-and-miss rate of over 50 percent last year, per Pontes.
Marlins hurlers Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera offer two models for Stone as a starter who'll rely mostly on his changeup in the majors. All the more reason for Dodgers fans to be champing at the bit to see both him and Miller in the rotation in the near future, to be sure.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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