Which 2023 NFL Rookies Were Drafted by the Wrong Team?
Last month, 259 players were added to the NFL via the draft. For many of them, selection weekend marked the very beginning of long and fruitful pro careers. However, some prospects landed in much better situations than others.
Anthony Richardson, for example, landed with an Indianapolis Colts team that needs a long-term answer at quarterback and with a coach who previously helped guide dual-threat signal-caller Jalen Hurts to an Pro Bowl level. Jordan Addison, meanwhile, lands with a Minnesota Vikings team that had a clear need for a No. 2 receiver opposite superstar Justin Jefferson.
These are players in situations that should yield relatively early success and help them reach that coveted big second contract. However, not every draftee was as fortunate.
Below, we'll examine eight incoming rookies who, due to scheme fit, a surplus of roster depth or unfair expectations, could struggle to find immediate success—an issue that might not occur had they landed with different clubs.
This doesn't meant these players won't go on to become great NFL players, but they'll have some big early obstacles because they were drafted by the wrong teams.
Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State
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Iowa State's Will McDonald IV has the potential to develop into a dominant NFL edge-rusher, but he's likely to face both unrealistic expectations and a problematic fit with the New York Jets early on.
The Jets came into the draft needing offensive line help, and that was no secret. This is why the Pittsburgh Steelers jumped ahead of them in the draft to grab offensive tackle Broderick Jones in Round 1. New York settled on McDonald at No. 15.
Since the Jets didn't get a piece to help protect new quarterback Aaron Rodgers on opening night, fans will expect McDonald to be an immediate star. After all, defense wasn't what New York needed—it ranked fourth in both yards and points allowed last season—so McDonald had better be special if he's going to justify the Jets' decision.
The problem there is that New York has pass-rushers in Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers and Carl Lawson—who recently agreed to a contract restructure. The defense logged 45 sacks last season, and while McDonald can help, he'll be a mere rotational piece early.
The other issue is that McDonald is a 6'4", 239-pound defender best suited to rush from the linebacker position. The Jets typically use a 4-3 base defense and were in base or nickel formations 95 percent of the time last season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
For McDonald to break out, he'll need to either add enough mass to be an effective rush end, or the Jets will have to find creative ways to get him on the field. Either route could take time.
Had McDonald landed with a 3-4 team, like the New England Patriots at No. 17, or a team with a greater pass-rushing need, like the Detroit Lions at No. 18—he'd have a clearer path to being an instant-impact player.
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
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Like McDonald, Washington Commanders cornerback Emmanuel Forbes will likely face unrealistic expectations early on. Washington took the Mississippi State product 16th overall, which was a reach for the 6'1", 166-pound defender.
While Forbes has tremendous ball skills—he had six interceptions and three pick-sixes last season—he's an extreme size outlier who will need to add size and strength to be an effective NFL perimeter corner.
"Forbes has the frame to add weight, but he'll need to
quickly do so within the first couple years of his career. He is a
potential role player who has the ability to become a starter down the
road," Cory Giddings of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department wrote.
The problem here is that Washington needs a perimeter starter now, and it's going to expect Forbes to deliver. The rookie wouldn't face the same pressure to perform had he landed with a team that already had a high-end No. 1 corner who can match up with bigger receivers—or if he had been drafted in a more suitable range.
Forbes was the 103rd-ranked prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's final draft board.
A team like the Miami Dolphins, who took cornerback Cam Smith 51st overall, would have been a much better landing spot for Forbes. The Dolphins traded for cornerback Jalen Ramsey in the offseason and already had a high-level starter in Xavien Howard.
The Dolphins played man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league last season, according to Sports Info Solutions. In Miami, Forbes would have had better opportunities to match up against smaller defenders as a situational cover man and difference-making ball hawk.
In Washington, which played man coverage at the 16th-highest rate, Forbes will be on the field early and will have less control over which receivers opponents throw at him.
Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took offensive lineman Cody Mauch in a reasonable spot. He was the 55th-ranked prospect on the B/R board, and the Buccaneers took him 48th overall.
Still, after trading Shaq Mason, releasing Donovan Smith and possibly moving Tristan Wirfs from right to left tackle, the Bucs need an immediate starter along the line. Coming out of an FBS program at North Dakota State, Mauch will probably need time to adjust before being a dependable starter.
"He has a chance to start at center within his first contract as he gains the necessary processing skills to handle the line calls and manage the pre-snap phase of the game," Brandon Thorn of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.
Mauch probably won't get the luxury of a developmental period in Tampa, and he won't have the support of a strong established line either. There are multiple moving pieces, and the line wasn't great last season.
The quick release of Tom Brady help mask some of the line's protection issues, and the Bucs ranked dead-last in yards per rush (3.4). Tampa won't get the same fast processing and pre-snap recognition from Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask, which could leave Mauch in a lot of bad situations early in his career.
Center Ryan Jensen can provide a reliable presence on one side of Mauch, but the rookie will likely have a player at a new NFL position—Wirfs or Luke Goedeke—at a new NFL position on the other.
Mauch would have more favorable circumstances had he landed with a team like the New York Giants at No. 57 or the Cowboys at No. 58.
New York, which took interior lineman John Michael Schmitz at No. 57, has bookend tackles in Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal, plus an offense based around running back Saquon Barkley. The Cowboys have a more established line and could have afforded to bring Mauch along slowly.
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Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
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In a vacuum, former UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet would seem to be in a pretty enviable position. The Seattle Seahawks have long utilized a run-based offense under head coach Pete Carroll, and they have a stable quarterback in Geno Smith.
The problem for the 52nd overall pick is that Seattle leaned more on Smith and the passing attack last season and ranked just 22nd in rushing attempts. With first-round receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba joining DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the receiver room, the Seahawks might be even more pass-heavy this season.
Plus, the Seahawks already have a budding star in 2022 second-round pick Kenneth Walker III. The former Michigan State running back ran 228 times for 1,050 yards in 15 games as a rookie and caught 27 passes for another 165 yards.
Taking Charbonnet in the second round was a luxury pick for the Seahawks, and while having two good backs is a great problem for them to have, it's less beneficial for Charbonnet.
The reality is that running backs have a limited shelf life in the NFL and often have just one chance to cash in with a big long-term contract. To get a hefty free-agent contract, backs have to produce, and with a strong passing game and Walker on the roster, Charbonnet's opportunities will be limited.
This wouldn't have been the case had Charbonnet landed with, say, the Cowboys at No. 58. Dallas parted with Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason and is only guaranteed to have the franchise-tagged Tony Pollard for another season. He could have immediately replaced Elliott in the Cowboys lineup and quickly established himself as a star.
The Los Angeles Chargers at No. 54 could also have provided Charbonnet with a tremendous fit. The Chargers have long lacked a reliable rushing complement to dual-threat Austin Ekeler, and Ekeler will be a free agent after this season.
Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
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We've pegged Dallas as a prime alternative for a couple of rookies on this list. However, the Cowboys won't provide former Michigan tight end Luke Schoonmaker with an ideal situation.
The Cowboys do have a big opening at the position after losing Dalton Schultz in free agency. However, Dallas' lack of an established starter is a problem for the relatively raw former Wolverine.
"Schoonmaker is an exciting draft-and-develop type, but an older one," Derrik Klassen of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "His size, field-stretching ability and baseline blocking skills are a great foundation to try to build upon. Schoonmaker's development may take time, however, just as it did in college."
Dallas used the 59th overall pick on Schoonmaker, and he'll be expected to have a big early impact. That's not the fault of the tight end, who was the 95th-ranked prospect on the B/R board, but that expectation is unrealistic.
Don't be surprised if Schoonmaker begins his career backing up 2022 fourth-round pick Jake Ferguson for at least a season or two. That could lead to the dreaded "bust" label getting thrown around and possibly to Dallas signing a veteran that pushes Schoonmaker further down the depth chart.
The 24-year-old would have been better off landing with a team that has an established No. 1 tight end and in a more suitable draft range. Had the Pittsburgh Steelers taken him 93rd overall, for example, he could have developed behind Pat Freiermuth as an occasional contributor with more reasonable expectations.
The Steelers ultimately used that selection on Georgia tight end Darnell Washington.
The Baltimore Ravens could have provided a similar situation at No. 86. In Baltimore, Schoonmaker could have worked behind Mark Andrews as a potential replacement for departed complementary tight end Josh Oliver.
Kendre Miller, RB, TCU
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We have another case of a prospect being overdrafted here. The New Orleans Saints used the 71st overall pick on TCU running back Kendre Miller—who was the 175th-ranked prospect on the B/R board.
Presumably, New Orleans made the pick as an insurance policy for Alvin Kamara, who faces possible league discipline after being indicted on battery charges—though general manager Micky Loomis insisted that it wouldn't affect New Orleans' draft plans.
"It's not going to influence who we pick," Loomis said, per Luke Johnson of NOLA.com. "That's a short-term issue."
The problem is that New Orleans got an insurance policy and a rushing complement to Kamara when it signed Jamaal Williams in the offseason. The other issue is that Miller is an upright runner with limited third-down skills who simply isn't the best fit for New Orleans' offense.
"Miller will fit best in an outside zone system that simplifies his reads and unlocks his speed on the perimeter," Klassen wrote.
The Saints used zone-rushing concepts at the 22nd-highest rate last season, according to Sports Info Solutions. Miller would have been better off landing with a team that has less depth at the position and more propensity for zone runs.
The NFC South rival Buccaneers, for example, would have been a much better spot for Miller. Tampa parted with starter Leonard Fournette in the offseason and brought in former Seahawks quarterbacks coach Dave Canales as offensive coordinator.
Seattle, it should be noted, used zone runs 75 percent of the time last season, according to SIS. Assuming Canales uses the same offensive philosophies he learned in Seattle, Miller would be a tremendous fit in Tampa.
Had the Bucs taken Miller with the 82nd pick, it still would have been a reach but a more logical one. Aside from perhaps free-agent addition Chase Edmonds, Tampa doesn't have a truly proven runner on its roster.
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
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It wasn't a surprise to see the Giants trade up for a receiver on Day 2 of the draft. New York improved its depth at the position by signing Parris Campbell and Jamison Crowder, but it still lacked a true No. 1 perimeter target.
However, 73rd overall pick Jalin Hyatt is not that target. The Tennessee product has great top-end speed but is a smaller ('60", 176 lbs) receiver with a very unpolished skill set.
"Hyatt's route-running is lacking," Klassen wrote. "He doesn't waste very much movement via technique, but his high-waisted build makes him stiff in the hips. He can struggle to sink and explode out of routes, which limits his ability to separate on non-vertical routes."
While Hyatt might contribute occasionally as a field-stretcher, he isn't likely to see heavy usage early. He's too raw to consistently line up on the perimeter, and the Giants already have a developmental speed project in 2022 second-round pick Wan'Dale Robinson.
On top of everything else, New York simply doesn't lean heavily into the pass and ranked 25th in attempts last season. It all adds up to Hyatt having very limited production through at least the majority of his rookie contract.
A team with a more prolific passing attack like the Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 88 overall) or Buffalo Bills (No. 91) would have provided a better landing spot for the 86th-ranked prospect on the B/R board.
Both Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen can push the ball down the field more consistently than Daniel Jones. The Jags and Bills also have No. 1-caliber receivers in Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs, respectively, who could keep the early expectations for Hyatt low and command defensive attention when he's on the field.
The Giants and their quarterback cannot provide Hyatt with the same luxuries. For a pass-catcher who will eventually want a free-agent payday, that's unfortunate.
Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford
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The Philadelphia Eagles got great value when they took Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee—the 88th-ranked prospect on the B/R board—with the 188th selection. The pick, however, is less great for the prospect.
The Eagles have a championship-caliber roster and can give McKee a fantastic quarterback from whom to learn in Jalen Hurts. The problem here is the scheme fit. Even with a new offensive coordinator in Brian Johnson, the Eagles are likely to lean into the running ability of Hurts with designed quarterback runs, RPOs and play-action.
McKee, however, is a pure pocket passer who can't operate the same playbook with a high rate of efficacy.
This could limit McKee's ability to stick in Philadelphia as a long-term backup. The best understudies have at least a similar skill set as the starer's, Pro Bowl alternate Tyler Huntley of the Baltimore Ravens being a prime example.
The Eagles had a fairly similar pocket-passing backup in Gardner Minshew II who did well enough when given opportunities (92.8 passer rating) but who lasted only two years in Philadelphia and didn't generate a ton of free-agency demand.
Minshew signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal with the Indianapolis Colts this offseason.
McKee's job security and earnings potential will be limited in Philadelphia. He'd have benefited from landing with a different team and behind a similar pocket passer.
Had the Los Angeles Rams passed on Stetson Bennett in Round 4 and taken McKee six spots higher than he actually went, McKee would be in an ideal spot. Sean McVay's offense is built around the quarterback's ability to win from the pocket, and the Rams need a long-term successor to the 35-year-old Matthew Stafford.
Had McKee landed with the Buccaneers at No. 191, he would probably have had an opportunity to battle Mayfield and Trask for the starting job.
In L.A. or Tampa, McKee might have gotten a chance to be the quarterback of the future. He'll be part of no such succession plan in Philly.
*Contract information via Spotrac.
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