College Football Playoff Projections: Week 7 Rankings and Bowl Forecast
It still feels like the 2022 college football season has only just begun, but most teams are halfway through their schedules, as nine of them are sitting at 6-0 with bowl eligibility secured.
The first batch of rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee won't come until Tuesday, Nov. 1. That's when it really starts to feel like bowl season is nigh. But the playoff picture and the trickle-down effect from it are already taking shape, with an Alabama-Clemson-Georgia-Ohio State quartet still looking like the most likely outcome.
But Georgia almost lost to Missouri in Week 5. Alabama barely survived Texas A&M in Week 6. And both Alabama (at Tennessee) and Clemson (at Florida State) have losable road games on the docket for Week 7.
Things can change in a hurry.
Just ask Arkansas, which went from "CFP hopeful" to "might not win six games" in a flash.
As things stand, though, here is our best guess at what the 41-game bowl season schedule will look like in two months.
Please note that these are bowl projections and not some sort of "if the season ended today" exercise. To that end, the combination of each team's win-total betting line and its projected win total according to ESPN's Football Power Index are much more important than its record or AP ranking.
The bowl games have been broken into tiers and are presented in ascending order of magnitude.
For the first four tiers of bowls, we'll discuss one team projected for a better bowl than it was one week ago, as well as one team checking in a bit lower in the aftermath of Week 6 results. After touching on the New Year's Six and CFP projections, we'll wrap things up with a conference-by-conference breakdown of which teams are projected to go to which bowls.
Group of 5 Bowls
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Bahamas (Dec. 16): UTSA (4-2) vs. Miami-Ohio (3-3)
Cure (Dec. 16): Louisiana Tech (2-3) vs. Georgia Southern (3-3)
Frisco (Dec. 17): Ohio (3-3) vs. Southern Miss (2-3)
Lending Tree (Dec. 17): Kent State (2-4) vs. South Alabama (4-1)
New Mexico (Dec. 17): Middle Tennessee (3-3) vs. UNLV (4-2)
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 19): Appalachian State (3-3) vs. North Texas (3-3)
Boca Raton (Dec. 20): East Carolina (3-3) vs. Troy (4-2)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 20): Eastern Michigan (4-2) vs. Wyoming (4-3)
New Orleans (Dec. 21): Coastal Carolina (6-0) vs. Western Kentucky (3-3)
Independence (Dec. 23): Army (1-4) vs. SMU (2-3)
Hawai'i (Dec. 24): Air Force (4-2) vs. UAB (3-2)
Camellia (Dec. 27): Marshall (3-2) vs. Rice (3-2)
Arizona (Dec. 30): Boise State (4-2) vs. Buffalo (3-3)
Moving Up: Ohio Bobcats
Ohio didn't move up so much as Fresno State and Tulsa dropped out after blowout losses, opening two spots for the many Group of Five teams in the "coin-flip range" of bowl eligibility, projected for 5.5 to 5.9 wins.
And as the highest-scoring team of Week 6, the .500 Bobcats get one of those nods for now.
Kurtis Rourke wasted little time in setting the tone against Akron, connecting with Sam Wiglusz for a 75-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage. Rourke went 24-of-27 for 427 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio also ran in four scores en route to its 55-34 victory.
Peeking ahead, Ohio should win its remaining home games against 2-4 Bowling Green and 1-5 Northern Illinois, but it will probably need that offense to show up for a road game. A win at Western Michigan in Week 7 would be huge. We'll see what the Bobcats' FBS-worst defense (561.2 yards allowed per game) can do against the Broncos.
Sliding Down: Air Force Falcons
Save for Texas State stunning Appalachian State, one of the biggest upsets of Week 6 was 1-4 Utah State knocking off 4-1 Air Force 34-27.
The Aggies did put up a decent fight the previous week against BYU, but since eking out a home win over Connecticut in Week 0, they had lost four consecutive games by double digits.
Lo and behold, USU had five scoring drives of at least 62 yards in what was a back-and-forth affair until the pivotal fourth quarter. On his only touch of the game, Air Force's Jalen Johnson broke loose for a big gain before having the ball stripped. The Aggies recovered it and scored three plays later for the first multi-possession lead of the game.
With the loss, Air Force fell to 1-2 in Mountain West play and has basically no hope of playing in the conference championship game. The league looks like a toss-up between Boise State and San Jose State, and we're giving the slight edge to the 4-1 Spartans to represent the MWC in the LA Bowl.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5 or Pool Bowls
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Fenway (Dec. 17): Duke (4-2) vs. Houston (3-3)
LA (Dec. 17): San Jose State (4-1) vs. Washington State (4-2)
Armed Forces (Dec. 22): Liberty (5-1) vs. Tulane (5-1)
Gasparilla (Dec. 23): Arkansas (3-3) vs. Texas Tech (3-3)
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Iowa (3-3) vs. Toledo (4-2)
Birmingham (Dec. 27): Louisville (3-3) vs. Memphis (4-2)
First Responder (Dec. 27): California (3-2) vs. Oklahoma (3-3)
Military (Dec. 28): Miami (2-3) vs. UCF (4-1)
Moving Up: Houston Cougars
Houston seems to only know how to play in drama-filled games.
It needed three overtimes to win the opener against UTSA, subsequently lost to Texas Tech in double overtime, scored the game-winner against Rice on a fumble recovery late in the fourth quarter and lost in overtime to Tulane's third-string quarterback.
But in one of the most dramatic finishes of the 2022 season, Houston came back from a 26-7 deficit in the fourth quarter for a 33-32 victory at Memphis on Friday night.
Jayce Rogers returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown to keep the Cougars alive. Clayton Tune converted two 4th-and-long situations on Houston's subsequent possession to make it 32-26 with 77 seconds remaining. Then the Cougars recovered the ensuing on-side kick and went 51 yards for the game-winning score.
And the schedule is about to turn in Houston's favor.
The Cougars have faced nothing but .500-or-better teams who have a combined record of 24-11. The rest of the way, it's nothing but .500-or-worse opponents, as they'll go against the combined 12-21 force of Navy, USF, SMU, Temple, ECU and Tulsa.
They might still find their way into the AAC championship, and the Group of Five's spot in the NY6 is still a possibility if they win out.
Sliding Down: Arkansas Razorbacks
It doesn't take long for a rapid fall from grace, does it?
Arkansas started 3-0, was ranked 10th in the nation and appeared to be well on its way to a key road win over then-ranked Texas A&M. Had the Razorbacks hung on to that 14-0 first-quarter lead over the Aggies, they might have climbed a few spots in the AP poll and would have been the clear-cut choice for the SEC's spot in the Sugar Bowl heading into October.
But they didn't maintain that lead. They subsequently lost by 23 to Alabama and by 23 to Mississippi State. (They didn't have QB KJ Jefferson against the Bulldogs, but it probably wasn't going to matter.) And now not only is the Sugar Bowl off the table, but even getting to six wins is a big question mark.
Arkansas plays at BYU this weekend. After an idle Week 8, it has home games remaining against Liberty, LSU and Ole Miss, as well as road games against Auburn and Missouri. While none of those are guaranteed losses, the only one that ESPN's FPI has the Hogs favored to win is the Liberty game with a 68.1 percent win probability.
Maybe they'll get hot and finish 8-4 for a spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Conversely, they might go 4-8, which would inevitably raise questions about head coach Sam Pittman despite last year's 9-4 record. At the moment, though, 6-6 and a trip to either the Birmingham Bowl or Gasparilla Bowl looks like the most likely outcome.
Power 5 Bowls with Potential to Be Fun
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Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 27): BYU (4-2) vs. Kansas (5-1)
Holiday (Dec. 28): Pittsburgh (4-2) vs. Washington (4-2)
Liberty (Dec. 28): Baylor (3-2) vs. Florida (4-2)
Texas (Dec. 28): Kansas State (5-1) vs. Texas A&M (3-3)
Pinstripe (Dec. 29): Syracuse (5-0) vs. Wisconsin (3-3)
Duke's Mayo (Dec. 30): Notre Dame (3-2) vs. Purdue (4-2)
Sun (Dec. 30): Florida State (4-2) vs. Oregon State (4-2)
Music City (Dec. 31): Maryland (4-2) vs. South Carolina (4-2)
Moving Up: South Carolina Gamecocks
Without a doubt, South Carolina was fortunate to run into Kentucky when it did with quarterback Will Levis unavailable. Running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. still had a respectable day for the Wildcats with 126 yards on the ground, but the offense as a whole was quite lackluster in losing 24-14 at home against the Gamecocks.
But Levis' absence doesn't explain South Carolina rushing for 179 yards and two touchdowns against one of the nation's stingier defenses.
MarShawn Lloyd (141 yards from scrimmage) had a big day, and Spencer Rattler did just enough to steer the Gamecocks to a road win over a ranked opponent. Despite already facing three ranked foes, they have a 4-2 (or better) record six weeks into the season for the first time since 2017.
Getting to 8-2 is possible, too. South Carolina is idle in Week 7, but it returns Oct. 22 for home games against Texas A&M and Missouri, followed by road games against Vanderbilt and Florida. The Gamecocks should beat the Tigers and Commodores and could beat the Gators, and the Aggies game is a toss-up. Stay tuned.
Sliding Down: Maryland Terrapins
The Terps just let a should-win game slip right through their grasp.
Purdue practically gift-wrapped this one for Maryland. The Boilermakers inexplicably let Corey Dyches run wide-open down the field for a 68-yard touchdown reception to tie the game with seconds remaining before halftime. And then Purdue committed turnovers on each of its first three possessions after the intermission.
But a missed kick, a failed two-point conversion and some back-breaking penalties resulted in a 31-29 Maryland loss.
With home games remaining against Northwestern and Rutgers, the 4-2 Terrapins should at least reach bowl eligibility. And despite their remaining games against Ohio State and Penn State, it's still feasible they get to eight regular-season wins for the first time since 2010.
Still, that tough loss to Purdue knocked Maryland from the Big Ten's second-best non-NY6 team down to its fourth-best and at least temporarily out of the mix for the league's spots in Citrus Bowl and ReliaQuest Bowl on the next-highest tier.
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Top Non-New Year's 6 Bowls
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Las Vegas (Dec. 17): Mississippi State (5-1) vs. Utah (4-2)
Alamo (Dec. 29): TCU (5-0) vs. UCLA (6-0)
Cheez-It (Dec. 29): Texas (4-2) vs. Wake Forest (5-1)
Gator (Dec. 30): North Carolina (5-1) vs. LSU (4-2)
Citrus (Jan. 2): Minnesota (4-1) vs. Ole Miss (6-0)
ReliaQuest (Jan. 2): Illinois (5-1) vs. Kentucky (4-2)
Moving Up: Illinois Fighting Illini
Kansas' 5-0 start after more than a decade of futility was, of course, a massive story for the season's first month.
But did you know Kansas has posted a winning record during the regular season more recently than Illinois?
The Jayhawks last did so with a 7-5 record in 2008, but the Illini haven't pulled it off since taking a 9-3 record into the Rose Bowl at the end of the 2007 season.
Nevertheless, here comes Illinois with—checks notes—the best defense in the nation?
Both in terms of yards per play (3.73) and points per game (8.0), the Illini rank No. 1. Since allowing 23 points in the Week 1 loss at Indiana, Illinois has held its last four opponents to a combined total of 19 points.
Sure, it wasn't great competition. It's feasible that Illinois has yet to face a team that ends up qualifying for a bowl game. (Iowa, Wisconsin and Wyoming are all borderline, Indiana and Virginia are unlikely to reach six wins and Chattanooga is an FCS school.) But aside from the road game against Michigan in Week 12, it's not like the upcoming slate is much tougher.
Unless the defense all of a sudden crumbles, Illinois should get to eight wins and might even end up carrying a 10-2 record into the Big Ten championship.
Sliding Down: Ole Miss Rebels
Utah also slipped from the New Year's Six tier to this one, but that's because the Utes lost to UCLA. I shouldn't need to justify that move anywhere near as much as explaining why in the world an undefeated Ole Miss team dropped in the projections.
Well, as we discussed last week, it was a toss-up between Ole Miss and Tennessee for the SEC's spot in the Sugar Bowl, and the 5-0 Volunteers (start-to-finish blowout win at LSU) had a much more impressive Week 6 showing than did the Rebels. Ole Miss did eventually cruise to a 24-point victory, but trailing Vanderbilt at halftime was a shocking development.
As a result, Tennessee holds a slight edge over Ole Miss.
That said, Tennessee has the considerably more difficult remaining schedule, and there are two other NY6 spots Ole Miss could occupy. The non-ACC spot in the Orange Bowl is reserved for Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame, and the non-G5 spot in the Cotton Bowl is a wild card.
While we have the former projected to Penn State and the latter to Oregon, the Rebels were a strong candidate for both spots.
Listen, though. This is probably just temporary. With both Penn State (at Michigan) and Tennessee (vs. Alabama) likely to lose this week, Ole Miss—assuming a home win over Auburn—should move back up to either the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl in our next projection.
And while a Week 11 home loss to Alabama is likely, Ole Miss could go 11-1 and make some noise as a CFP candidate.
Non-CFP New Year's 6 Bowls
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Orange (Dec. 30): North Carolina State (5-1) vs. Penn State (5-0)
Sugar (Dec. 31): Oklahoma State (5-0) vs. Tennessee (5-0)
Cotton (Jan. 2): Cincinnati (5-1) vs. Oregon (5-1)
Rose (Jan. 2): Michigan (6-0) vs. USC (6-0)
CFP's first runner-up: USC Trojans
The difference between Michigan and USC at No. 5 and No. 6 is razor-thin.
The Trojans have 10.9 projected wins to the Wolverines' 10.8, though it must be noted that's assuming USC has about a 70 percent chance of getting a 13th game in the Pac-12 championship compared to a 22 percent chance that Michigan wins the Big Ten East.
But if the Trojans split their remaining road games against Utah (Week 7) and UCLA (Week 12), win their other four regular-season games and get to 12-1 with a Pac-12 title, they're going to rank ahead of an 11-1 Michigan and would be the first team left out if Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State continue on their trajectories.
The fun #content part of it will be if soon-to-be Big Ten programs USC and UCLA square off for the Pac-12 championship, both boasting 11-1 records with more or less a guarantee that the winner will end up ranked ahead of 11-1 Michigan—which has to sit at home on conference championship weekend and watch as Ohio State obliterates Illinois, Minnesota or Purdue in the Big Ten title game.
The Battle for the Cotton Bowl
Following Utah's Week 6 loss to UCLA, the lone NY6 at-large spot in the Cotton Bowl is back up for grabs.
We've already discussed 6-0 Ole Miss as a great candidate for it. UCLA (6-0) and TCU (5-0) are also very much in the running for that NY6 bid.
One-loss Oregon gets that projected spot for now, though, as it is the most likely of those four teams to win all of its remaining regular-season games.
After looking hopelessly lost on both sides of the ball in their season-opening 49-3 loss to Georgia, the Ducks have scored at least 41 points in five straight victories. They just lit up Arizona for seven rushing touchdowns—this coming one week after racking up 351 rushing yards in the win over Stanford.
And for as miserably as their season started, they're slightly ahead of where they were in the preseason, votes-wise. Oregon entered that game against Georgia at No. 11 in the AP poll with a total of 831 votes. Now, it's No. 12 with 893 votes.
The Ducks are idle in Week 7 before returning for a big home game against UCLA. They'll be favored, though, and should be in every remaining contest, with the Week 12 home game against Utah as the only one that might be a coin flip.
And if they carry an 11-1 record into the Pac-12 championship before losing to USC, they should still be in great shape for the Cotton Bowl.
College Football Playoff
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Peach (Dec. 31): No. 1 Alabama (6-0) vs. No. 4 Clemson (6-0)
Fiesta (Dec. 31): No. 2 Ohio State (6-0) vs. No. 3 Georgia (6-0)
National Championship (Jan. 9): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Ho hum. For all the talk about chaos and carnage this season, nothing really changes up top.
Georgia did vault back ahead of Alabama in the AP poll this week after the latter darn near lost at home to Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide even slipped behind Ohio State to No. 3, which is a fair reshuffling of the top tier.
However, Alabama had to play that game without Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young (shoulder), which is no small asterisk. There's no sense in shaking things up in our CFP projection when considering that condition plus the fact that ESPN's FPI projections still have Alabama as more likely to win the SEC championship (48 percent) than Georgia (40 percent).
(As you're surely wondering about the other 20 percent, it's split up as: 6.5 percent Tennessee, 4.1 percent Ole Miss, 1.1 percent LSU and 0.3 percent Mississippi State.)
There's a huge hurdle coming this week for Alabama at No. 6 Tennessee, though. And, really, it'll be four big hurdles in a row, as the Crimson Tide will host Mississippi State the following week before back-to-back road games against LSU and Ole Miss in Weeks 10 and 11.
The Tide might get tripped up somewhere, and if it happens against the Rebels, it will most likely be Lane Kiffin and not Nick Saban representing the SEC West in the conference championship.
Until it loses, though, Alabama remains our projected No. 1 seed.
In the non-SEC half of the projected CFP, Ohio State has been absurdly dominant, racking up 614 yards on the road against Michigan State this past weekend, even without running back Miyan Williams and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They are relentless on offense and might be better than 2019 LSU if and when they get to full strength.
And after a sluggish start at Boston College, Clemson cruised to a 31-3 victory to remain undefeated. The Tigers have a challenging road game against Florida State this Saturday, but there's a good chance they'll run the table.
Should we also end up with a 13-0 Big 12 champion (Oklahoma State or TCU) or a 13-0 Pac-12 champion (USC or UCLA), that team would have a compelling case for leapfrogging Clemson. And if we end up with all five P5 leagues producing an undefeated champion, buddy, that'll be a fun debate. But we'll wait to pull those threads until one of those four teams has at least a 10 percent chance of running the table.
Bowl Games by Conference
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Here is the breakdown of bowl projections listed alphabetically by conference. New Year's Six games have been italicized and underlined to help those of you who just scrolled to the bottom to find the marquee bowls.
American Athletic (7 teams): Cincinnati (Cotton), East Carolina (Boca Raton), Houston (Fenway), Memphis (Birmingham), SMU (Independence), Tulane (Armed Forces), UCF (Military)
Atlantic Coast (10 teams): Clemson (Peach), Duke (Fenway), Florida State (Sun), Louisville (Birmingham), Miami (Military), North Carolina (Gator), North Carolina State (Orange), Pittsburgh (Holiday), Syracuse (Pinstripe), Wake Forest (Cheez-It)
Big 12 (8 teams): Baylor (Liberty), Kansas (Guaranteed Rate), Kansas State (Texas), Oklahoma (First Responder), Oklahoma State (Sugar), TCU (Alamo), Texas (Cheez-It), Texas Tech (Gasparilla)
Big Ten (9 teams): Illinois (ReliaQuest), Iowa (Quick Lane), Maryland (Music City), Michigan (Rose), Minnesota (Citrus), Ohio State (Fiesta), Penn State (Orange), Purdue (Duke's Mayo), Wisconsin (Pinstripe)
Conference USA (7 teams): Louisiana Tech (Cure), Middle Tennessee (New Mexico), North Texas (Myrtle Beach), Rice (Camellia), UAB (Hawai'i), UTSA (Bahamas), Western Kentucky (New Orleans)
Independents (4 teams): Army (Independence), BYU (Guaranteed Rate), Liberty (Armed Forces), Notre Dame (Duke's Mayo)
Mid-American (6 teams): Buffalo (Arizona), Eastern Michigan (Famous Idaho Potato), Kent State (LendingTree), Miami-Ohio (Bahamas), Ohio (Frisco), Toledo (Quick Lane)
Mountain West (5 teams): Air Force (Hawai'i), Boise State (Arizona), San Jose State (LA), UNLV (New Mexico), Wyoming (Famous Idaho Potato)
Pac-12 (8 teams): California (First Responder), Oregon (Cotton), Oregon State (Sun), UCLA (Alamo), USC (Rose), Utah (Las Vegas), Washington (Holiday), Washington State (LA)
Southeastern (11 teams): Alabama (Peach), Arkansas (Gasparilla), Florida (Liberty), Georgia (Fiesta), Kentucky (ReliaQuest), LSU (Gator), Mississippi State (Las Vegas), Ole Miss (Citrus), South Carolina (Music City), Tennessee (Sugar), Texas A&M (Texas)
Sun Belt* (7 teams): Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach), Coastal Carolina (New Orleans), Georgia Southern (Cure), Marshall (Camellia), South Alabama (LendingTree), Southern Miss (Frisco), Troy (Boca Raton)
*James Madison is 5-0 and ranked in the AP Top 25, but the Dukes are ineligible for a bowl game until next season as they transition from FCS to FBS—one of the most preposterous rules the NCAA has ever come up with, which is really saying something.
Win projections via ESPN FPI.
Kerry Miller covers college football, men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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