College Football Playoff Projections: Week 6 Rankings and Bowl Forecast
After the reigning national champions got a Week 5 scare from an unranked foe, our updated projection for the College Football Playoff is right back to where it started in August: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Clemson.
Beyond that, however, plenty has changed within the first five weeks of the regular season. (We don't bother with bowl projections in September, but now that there's a significant sample size of 2022 data, the plan is to deliver these every Tuesday for the rest of the season.)
Please note that these are bowl projections and not some sort of "if the season ended today" exercise. To that end, the combination of each team's win total betting line and its projected win total according to ESPN's Football Power Index are way more important than simply its current record or AP ranking.
The 41 bowl games have been broken into tiers and are presented in ascending order of magnitude.
For the first four tiers of bowls, we'll discuss one team projected for a better bowl than we thought in the preseason, as well as one team checking in a bit lower than it did six weeks ago. After touching on the NY6 and CFP projections, we'll then wrap things up with a conference-by-conference breakdown of which teams are projected to go to which bowls.
Group of 5 Bowls
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Bahamas (Dec. 16): UTSA (3-2) vs. Miami-Ohio (2-3)
Cure (Dec. 16): Tulsa (2-3) vs. Georgia Southern (3-2)
Frisco (Dec. 17): Fresno State (1-3) vs. Southern Miss (2-2)
Lending Tree (Dec. 17): Eastern Michigan (3-2) vs. South Alabama (4-1)
New Mexico (Dec. 17): Middle Tennessee (3-2) vs. UNLV (4-1)
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 19): Appalachian State (3-2) vs. Houston (2-3)
Boca Raton (Dec. 20): East Carolina (3-2) vs. Troy (3-2)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 20): Kent State (2-3) vs. Wyoming (3-3)
New Orleans (Dec. 21): Coastal Carolina (5-0) vs. Western Kentucky (3-2)
Independence (Dec. 23): Army (1-3) vs. SMU (2-2)
Hawai'i (Dec. 24): San Jose State (3-1) vs. UAB (2-2)
Camellia (Dec. 27): Marshall (3-2) vs. Rice (3-2)
Arizona (Dec. 30): Boise State (3-2) vs. Buffalo (2-3)
Moving Up: UNLV Rebels
UNLV has gone to just one bowl game in the past 20 years, sneaking into the 2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl with a 7-5 record. It was one of just two times dating back to 1985 that the Rebels won seven or more games during the regular season. They also went 7-5 in 2000, which means they are already just three wins away from matching what has been their high-water mark for nearly four decades.
They went 2-16 over the past two seasons.
So, no, we did not have the Rebels projected for a bowl game in August. And, yes, we are still stunned that they almost won at Cal earlier this season.
We'll see if UNLV can ultimately get to six wins, though, because the upcoming slate is brutal. The Rebels are at 3-1 San Jose State this weekend, host 4-1 Air Force next weekend and then travel to Notre Dame. However, they should win the road game against Hawai'i (Nov. 19), and you've got to like their chances of getting at least one of the other three games on the docket (at San Diego State, vs. Fresno State, vs. Nevada).
Sliding Down: Houston Cougars
With an honorable mention to Fresno State, which has come nowhere close to living up to preseason expectations as the MWC favorite and which might not even get to six wins, Houston has been one of the biggest letdowns of all through five weeks.
Houston was ranked in the preseason, basically neck-and-neck with Cincinnati for the Group of Five's projected spot in the New Year's Six (Cotton Bowl).
Instead, they are 2-3 and have been dreadful on defense.
In both of their wins (at UTSA, vs. Rice) as well as in the double-overtime loss to Texas Tech, the Cougars had to make a fourth-quarter comeback that was fueled by a huge turnover—pretty much the only moments in this season that the defense did something good.
They also got kind of blown out at home by Kansas, and most recently lost in overtime to a Tulane team that was down to its third-string quarterback.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5 or Pool Bowls
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Fenway (Dec. 17): Memphis (4-1) vs. Pittsburgh (3-2)
LA (Dec. 17): Air Force (4-1) vs. Oregon State (3-2)
Armed Forces (Dec. 22): BYU (4-1) vs. Tulane (4-1)
Gasparilla (Dec. 23): Iowa State (3-2) vs. South Carolina (3-2)
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo (3-2) vs. Wisconsin (2-3)
Birmingham (Dec. 27): Liberty (4-1) vs. Texas Tech (3-2)
First Responder (Dec. 27): California (3-2) vs. Oklahoma (3-2)
Military (Dec. 28): Miami (2-2) vs. UCF (3-1)
Moving Up: BYU Cougars
We had BYU projected for the Frisco Bowl to begin the season, so it's not much of a leap here.
However, I wanted to address what it would take for the Cougars to move any higher than this.
The Guaranteed Rate Bowl on the next tier is a strong possibility. That game is supposed to go to the fifth-best non-NY6 team from the Big 12 and the seventh-best non-NY6 team from the Big Ten, and the latter might not be bowl-eligible. (We currently have 2-3 Michigan State there, which is a stretch with three games remaining against Top 10 teams.)
But even if BYU (currently No. 16 in the AP poll) finishes in the CFP Top 12, the only non-CFP NY6 spot available to the Cougars is in the Cotton Bowl against the highest-ranked G5 champ, as the other three non-CFP NY6 bowls in this year's rotation (Orange, Sugar and Rose) all have conference-specific affiliations.
And the competition for that lone at-large spot is going to be fierce.
There's not currently much of a case for BYU to be in front of Tennessee, Utah, Kentucky or especially Oregon, who the Cougars lost to by 21 a few weeks ago. But if they beat both Notre Dame and Arkansas in these next two weeks, now we're talking.
Sliding Down: Oklahoma Sooners
Miami, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin have all been big disappointments after opening the season ranked in the AP poll at Nos. 16, 17 and 18, respectively.
But that's nothing compared to Oklahoma sliding all the way down here from its preseason perch as a projected New Year's Six team.
The Sooners initially looked great against UTEP, Kent State and Nebraska, but they have allowed 96 points while losing their last two games against Kansas State and TCU.
At least in the loss to the Wildcats, they kept pace on offense and just seemed to be unable to find an answer for one star player (Adrian Martinez).
Against the Horned Frogs, Oklahoma didn't show up on either side of the ball, getting blown out by 31 and being outgained by more than 300 yards.
It looked like a repeat of the 2019 CFP semifinal loss to LSU, except it came against an unranked opponent as opposed to one of the greatest offenses in CFB history. (Though TCU might be pretty darn good. We'll find out in these next three weeks.)
Power 5 Bowls with Potential to Be Fun
3 of 7
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 27): Baylor (3-2) vs. Michigan State (2-3)
Holiday (Dec. 28): Notre Dame (2-2) vs. Washington (4-1)
Liberty (Dec. 28): Arkansas (3-2) vs. Kansas State (4-1)
Texas (Dec. 28): Kansas (5-0) vs. Texas A&M (3-2)
Pinstripe (Dec. 29): Iowa (3-2) vs. Syracuse (5-0)
Duke's Mayo (Dec. 30): Duke (4-1) vs. Illinois (4-1)
Sun (Dec. 30): North Carolina (4-1) vs. Washington State (4-1)
Music City (Dec. 31): Florida (3-2) vs. Purdue (3-2)
Moving Up: Kansas Jayhawks
Could have gone in quite a few different directions here, as Duke, Illinois and Syracuse have all been impressive after opening the season projected for losing records.
But, come on.
5-0 Syracuse is nothing compared to 5-0 Kansas.
Syracuse finished 2018 at 10-3.
Kansas had gone 7-68 against FBS competition over the previous seven seasons.
And at least until this past week in an ugly 14-11 win over Iowa State, the Jayhawks have looked legitimately good. Quarterback Jalon Daniels rapidly emerged as a Heisman candidate, leading a potent offense with a combined 16 passing and rushing touchdowns through the first four games.
Huge home game against also undefeated TCU this week. And because it's a noon ET kickoff, should they win, the Jayhawks might actually be the first team to secure bowl eligibility in 2022.
Wouldn't that be something?
Sliding Down: Texas A&M Aggies
Kansas' projected opponent in the Texas Bowl has been trending very much in a different direction.
Jimbo Fisher's Aggies lost that home game to Appalachian State back in Week 2, and then had some major offensive woes last week in the loss at Mississippi State. Moose Muhammad III did have a breakout performance in the Aggies' quest to adjust to life without Ainias Smith, but it wasn't until the game was out of reach that they started moving the ball with any sort of competency.
Up next is a road game against Alabama that will most likely result in a loss. Same goes for the Week 9 showdown with Ole Miss, unless this offense has made substantial improvement by then.
At the moment, ESPN's FPI has the Aggies projected for 6.3 wins. Quite the fall from grace for the preseason No. 6 team.
But no matter how bad this season gets, don't expect to see Fisher going anywhere. We've seen programs eat some hefty buyouts already this season, but Fisher would be owed almost $100 million. No way that's happening, right?
Right?!
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Top Non-New Year's Six Bowls
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Las Vegas (Dec. 17): Mississippi State (4-1) vs. UCLA (5-0)
Alamo (Dec. 29): Oregon (4-1) vs. TCU (4-0)
Cheez-It (Dec. 29): Texas (3-2) vs. Wake Forest (4-1)
Gator (Dec. 30): Florida State (4-1) vs. LSU (4-1)
Citrus (Jan. 2): Minnesota (4-1) vs. Tennessee (4-0)
ReliaQuest (Jan. 2): Kentucky (4-1) vs. Maryland (4-1)
Moving Up: UCLA Bruins
It took four years, but the vaunted Chip Kelly offense finally made its way to Los Angeles in 2021. The Bruins scored at least 23 points in each of their 12 games and won at least eight regular-season contests for the first time since 2014.
It seems that was merely the first step, though. UCLA has scored at least five offensive touchdowns in four of its first five games, including this past Friday's statement win over then-No. 15 Washington.
Up until that point, there were big questions about UCLA's strength of schedule. Dropping 40 on the Huskies while mostly containing Michael Penix Jr. until garbage time was an eye-opener.
It's probably still too early to start dreaming about UCLA going to the Rose Bowl for what would be the first time since 1998, but a home win over No. 11 Utah this weekend could change that in a hurry.
Sliding Down: None
No one in this tier was projected for a New Year's Six bowl in the preseason, so let's double-dip on the positive surprises.
Moving Up, Part II: TCU Horned Frogs
"The Horned Frogs aren't going to win the Big 12 or anything. But enough wins for their first bowl game since 2018? That's plenty doable."
What an already regrettable synopsis in our preseason projection of TCU in the Armed Forces Bowl.
After last week's destruction of Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs winning the Big 12 is an entirely plausible scenario.
It's no surprise that Sonny Dykes' offensive genius has already had a positive impact. But ranking third in the nation in scoring in his first season—which also happens to be the season after losing the only 5-star signee in program history (Zach Evans) as a transfer to Ole Miss—has been a "might be the unanimous Head Coach of the Year" sort of development.
It's looking like they're headed for four consecutive weeks against ranked opponents. They already smoked Oklahoma, with No. 19 Kansas, No. 7 Oklahoma State and No. 20 Kansas State next on the docket. The Horned Frogs do still have road games remaining against Texas and Baylor, but if they can score their way to wins in two of these next three games, they're probably at least destined for the Big 12 title game.
Win all three and it'll be time to put TCU in the CFP picture for the first time since early 2017.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Bowls
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Orange (Dec. 30): North Carolina State (4-1) vs. Penn State (5-0)
Sugar (Dec. 31): Oklahoma State (4-0) vs. Ole Miss (5-0)
Cotton (Jan. 2): Cincinnati (4-1) vs. Utah (4-1)
Rose (Jan. 2): Michigan (5-0) vs. USC (5-0)
CFP's first runner-up: Michigan Wolverines
It's likely that neither the Big 12 nor the Pac-12 will produce an undefeated champion. Oklahoma State still has road games against TCU, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma. USC plays at both Utah and UCLA, plus has a potentially tough game at home against Notre Dame to close out the regular season. And Kansas, TCU and UCLA are even less likely to pull it off.
Meanwhile, if things play to form in the Big Ten, it'll be 11-0 Michigan at 11-0 Ohio State to determine who plays in the Big Ten title game and who sits at home on championship weekend with crossed fingers and an 11-1 record.
That hard luck runner-up will finish no lower than No. 7 in the rankings and will probably land at No. 5, possibly No. 4 if Alabama, Clemson or Georgia decide to play nice. But our projection at the moment is that Michigan loses "The Game" and ends up at No. 5.
The Battle for the Cotton Bowl
There are usually more "at-large" spots available in this tier, but it's only one this year.
Per always when it's not the national championship, the Rose Bowl will be B1G-P12. The Sugar Bowl is B12-SEC. The Orange Bowl is ACC vs. B1G/SEC/Notre Dame. (Spoiler: It won't be Notre Dame.) And the Cotton Bowl is the top Group of Five champion against the best team that hasn't already been selected for one of the other five NY6 bowls.
If the season ended right now, that team would be Tennessee/Ole Miss with the other playing in the Sugar Bowl. But the Volunteers are about to go through hell and back with road games against LSU and Georgia and home games against Alabama and Kentucky within the next five weeks.
Should they split those games and win the other four (vs. UT Martin, vs. Missouri, at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt) to finish 10-2, that would probably be enough for the Cotton Bowl. But four SEC teams getting to double-digit wins in the regular season might be a stretch.
Thus, the Pac-12 runner-up going to the Cotton Bowl feels like the most likely outcome at the moment. That could, of course, change as soon as this weekend.
College Football Playoff
6 of 7
Peach (Dec. 31): No. 1 Alabama (5-0) vs. No. 4 Clemson (5-0)
Fiesta (Dec. 31): No. 2 Ohio State (5-0) vs. No. 3 Georgia (5-0)
National Championship (Jan. 9): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Fun fact: This is the exact same projection we had in the preseason. Probably would have had Alabama and Georgia switched prior to the Bulldogs getting all they could handle from Missouri this past weekend, but now we're right back to where we started.
But here's a hypothetical question:
What happens if we end up with No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Georgia?
The CFP selection committee has been adamant that they don't let the possible matchups impact the rankings. Their job is simply to rank the top four teams in their deserved order, and then just let the dominoes fall into place from there.
So if they decide that 13-0 Ohio State and 13-0 Clemson are better than 12-1 Georgia, we could get a rematch of the SEC championship in a CFP semifinal.
But would it be in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, or in the Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix?
Peach would be Alabama's preference against pretty much any team aside from Georgia, but the Bulldogs would have a major geographical advantage over the Crimson Tide.
Granted, that advantage hasn't done Georgia any good in this rivalry. There have been four Bama-UGA games in Atlanta in the past decade—2012, 2018 and 2021 SEC championships, plus the 2017 national championship—and Alabama won all four of those games. Under Nick Saban, Alabama has also gone 2-0 in its true road games against Georgia.
Surviving that lion's den in the past doesn't mean the Crimson Tide would be eager to jump back into it, though. I would think Alabama-Georgia would get shipped out to Arizona if the Crimson Tide end up with the No. 1 seed, but there are quite a few hurdles to clear before that hypothetical becomes a reality.
You know who doesn't have many hurdles left, though?
Clemson.
After back-to-back victories over Wake Forest and N.C. State, it should be relatively smooth sailing to the finish line for the Tigers. They do have a handful of tricky games still to come—at Florida State, at Notre Dame, vs. No. 22 Syracuse—but they have the easiest remaining schedule among the top tier of CFP candidates.
And it's really the easiest remaining schedule if you want to factor in conference championships where Clemson will face...Duke? UNC?
Nothing is guaranteed, but Clemson's odds of making the playoff should be better than 50-50.
Bowl Games by Conference
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Here is the breakdown of bowl projections listed alphabetically by conference. New Year's Six games have been italicized and underlined to help those of you who just scrolled to the bottom to find the marquee bowls.
American Athletic (8 teams): Cincinnati (Cotton), East Carolina (Boca Raton), Houston (Myrtle Beach), Memphis (Fenway), SMU (Independence), Tulane (Armed Forces), Tulsa (Cure), UCF (Military)
Atlantic Coast (9 teams): Clemson (Peach), Duke (Duke's Mayo), Florida State (Gator), Miami (Military), North Carolina (Sun), North Carolina State (Orange), Pittsburgh (Fenway), Syracuse (Pinstripe), Wake Forest (Cheez-It)
Big 12 (9 teams): Baylor (Guaranteed Rate), Iowa State (Gasparilla), Kansas (Texas), Kansas State (Liberty), Oklahoma (First Responder), Oklahoma State (Sugar), TCU (Alamo), Texas (Cheez-It), Texas Tech (Birmingham)
Big Ten (10 teams): Illinois (Duke's Mayo), Iowa (Pinstripe), Maryland (ReliaQuest), Michigan (Rose), Michigan State (Guaranteed Rate), Minnesota (Citrus), Ohio State (Fiesta), Penn State (Orange), Purdue (Music City), Wisconsin (Quick Lane)
Conference USA (5 teams): MTSU (New Mexico), Rice (Camellia), UAB (Hawai'i), UTSA (Bahamas), Western Kentucky (New Orleans)
Independents (4 teams): Army (Independence), BYU (Armed Forces), Liberty (Birmingham), Notre Dame (Holiday)
Mid-American (5 teams): Buffalo (Arizona), Eastern Michigan (LendingTree), Kent State (Famous Idaho Potato), Miami-Ohio (Bahamas), Toledo (Quick Lane)
Mountain West (6 teams): Air Force (LA), Boise State (Arizona), Fresno State (Frisco), San Jose State (Hawai'i), UNLV (New Mexico), Wyoming (Famous Idaho Potato)
Pac-12 (8 teams): California (First Responder), Oregon (Alamo), Oregon State (LA), UCLA (Las Vegas), USC (Rose), Utah (Cotton), Washington (Holiday), Washington State (Sun)
Southeastern (11 teams): Alabama (Peach), Arkansas (Liberty), Florida (Music City), Georgia (Fiesta), Kentucky (ReliaQuest), LSU (Gator), Mississippi State (Las Vegas), Ole Miss (Sugar), South Carolina (Gasparilla), Tennessee (Citrus), Texas A&M (Texas)
Sun Belt (7 teams): Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach), Coastal Carolina (New Orleans), Georgia Southern (Cure), Marshall (Camellia), South Alabama (LendingTree), Southern Miss (Frisco), Troy (Boca Raton)
Kerry Miller covers college football, men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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