Three Reasons Why the Boston Celtics Are Already in Hot Water

The Boston Celtics are in trouble with a capital T.  Storm clouds are gathering but plenty of Celtics fans remain optimistic.  Many believe that all they need to do is pick up a player or two to fill in the gaps until the team returns to what passes for full strength.

It’s a tough way to start the season, isn’t it?  Boston has played two of the top teams in the conference (the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks) and a re-tooled Hornets’ squad, and they’ve done it without Paul Pierce and Jeff Green.  Well, the Celtics have lost all three games and this lockout-shortened season is starting to get soggy.

Assessing this team, it’s hard to imagine that they will win 40 games, let alone contend for a title.  Here are the three main reasons why I believe the Celtics are in trouble.

Reason No. 1: Age

The Celtics have often picked up veterans, squeezing a few more productive seasons out of them as they make title runs.  Bailey Howell, Paul Silas and Bill Walton are a few names that come to mind.

Their current situation is one of the risks.  But if the players’ ages on their present roster range from rookies right through to 16-year vets, then why is their age a concern?  Just this: Pierce, Garnett and Allen are old.  The Big Three of 2011 are not the Big Three of 2007.

Paul Pierce is out, albeit briefly.  But he’ll need to play himself into shape and this season is 16 games shorter than usual.  Will he be ready when he returns?  A shortened season increases the pressure players put on themselves to get back in the line up.  Can the Celtics afford to have Pierce at anything less than 100-percent?  Desperation hasn’t set in, so they will be glad to take what they can get from him.  Paul Pierce at 80-percent is better than no Paul Pierce.

Kevin Garnett hasn’t aged well.  He’s not the dominant force he once was.  He missed 23 games in his entire Minnesota career, but he has yet to play more than 71 games in kelly green, missing 50 games as a Celtic.  Players who move from high school into the NBA often age faster than other players.  By the time they reach 31 or 32 years of age, they begin to break down and their decline is rapid.  Garnett falls into that category (as does Jermaine O’Neal).  If he goes down, how do they replace him?  But even more importantly, how can they bolster his declining production?

Ray Allen has played very well, but he’s a 36-year-old veteran of 15 seasons worth of stress and strain.  Here’s some food for thought.  Allen played 37 playoff games in his first 11 NBA seasons.  He’s played 73 since his trade to Boston.  He’s also been remarkably durable as a Celtic, too, missing only 16 games in four-plus seasons.  That means he’s averaged about 96 GP since becoming a Celtic.  Tick, tick, tick…

Reason No. 2: Depth

Pierce is injured right now, though it’s relatively minor.  Green is out and it’s relatively major.  There’s no solid replacement on the roster for either player.  This wasn’t a deep team before Pierce and Green went down with their health issues.

The Celtics received some good news when the Suns and Mikael Pietrus came to an agreement, releasing him from their service.  When he cleared waivers and signed with Boston, they had a replacement for Jeff Green.  Pietrus is on the shelf and is expected to miss two weeks.

This increases the pressure on others to perform.  Rajon Rondo can be a one-man wrecking crew for games at times, Brandon Bass has done well, Marquis Daniels is a known quantity and Keyon Dooling is a wily vet with a few gallons left in the tank.  But Pavlovic, O’Neal and Wilcox don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of their opponents.

Reason No. 3: Shortened Schedule

One would think a 66-game tilt would work in their favor, but after an 0-3 start things get tougher from here.  This season will be filled with back-to-back games because they have to squeeze them in somehow.  This is something that the Celtics will feel very acutely as the season wears on.

Their loss to New Orleans was their first taste of the back-end of back-to-backs and they lost by 19.  That’s not to suggest that they’ll lose the back-end of back-to-backs all season, but there are a lot of them and the Celtics will lose their fair share.

There are four back-to-backs in January alone.  They play the Wizards January 1st and 2nd, the Bulls and Pacers on January 13th-14th, the Wizards and Magic on the 22nd and 23rd and the Magic and Pacers on the 26th and 27th.

While some of those teams aren’t powerhouses, Washington and Indiana will be much tougher in the second of back-to-back games, especially if they follow a good team like Chicago.  The Magic, if they still have Dwight Howard when they meet Boston, present some significant match-up problems—for Boston anyways.  Playing them on either side of back-to-back games will make them more difficult for Boston to handle.

The age and injury issues become crucial here: with a shortened training camp, an older squad and a weak bench affected by aches, pains and major injuries, back-to-backs are a nightmare.  Factor in travel and you can bet heavily against the Celtics, and probably supplement your income pretty nicely.

And then there’s the home-road schedule to consider.  66 games means 33 at home and 33 on the road.  Boston has a five game road trip in February, which ends with them playing the Cavaliers in game number 33.  They will have played 14 road games.

They return from that road trip to play the Bucks in Boston the very next night in the first game of the second half of the season.  They play three more in their mini home stand and then hit the road for 16 of their next 22 games.  They finish the season with three at home and three on the road.  This schedule is not very appealing to a team that’s young, deep and healthy.  The Celtics are old, shallow and riddled with injuries.

We’re only three games into this new, somewhat unexpected 2011-2012 season, so it’s too early to hit the panic button—but things don’t bode well for Boston.  If they acquire another above-average player or two, it will change the complexion of their season dramatically. 

However, if Danny Ainge is content to maintain the status quo—for whatever reason or reasons—then they will likely struggle.  How much will they struggle?  Crystal balls have never been my forté, but if the start of the season is any indication of what’s to come then they’re probably looking at 40 wins, more or less.

I’d like to predict a 50-win season for Boston, but I can’t bring myself to believe that they have what it takes to go 50-13 the rest of the way.