AFC Playoff Picture: Mapping out the Baltimore Ravens' Road to Indy
Controlling their own destiny atop the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens have clinched a playoff berth but not the division—yet.
Thanks to sweeping the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Ravens just need a win to get a first-round bye. However, because of their road woes (3-4) and losses to non-playoff teams such as Jacksonville, Seattle and San Diego, Week 17's game at Cincinnati is not a cakewalk.
All this being said, here are the games the Ravens will likely have to play through en route to Super Bowl XLVI.
Week 17: At Cincinnati Bengals
1 of 4This is the game that will determine a lot for the Ravens, as far as postseason schedule.
Obviously, a win will put them at 12-4 and give them a first-round bye. A loss, though, and they will fall to the No. 5 seed, as you know the Steelers will win at Cleveland in Week 17.
Yes, Baltimore's inconsistency on the road this season has been concerning, dating back to Week 2 in an upset loss to Tennessee. However, when big games have come around in 2011, the Ravens have answered the call every time.
In addition to sweeping Pittsburgh, the Ravens also defeated San Francisco and Houston (when they were a healthier team), as well as the New York Jets.
Against the Bengals this week, Baltimore's Top Five defense will double cover rookie WR A.J. Green and force Andy Dalton's other targets to get open. Fortunately for Baltimore, their front seven is stout and will be able to shut down Cincy's mediocre rushing attack without blitzing.
Therefore, the Bengals offense must rely on Dalton not to make mistakes, while the Ravens offense will work as normal. RB Ray Rice will do work as usual, while rookie WR Torrey Smith will burn deep for big plays.
Being that it's a road game, it will be a close one, but Baltimore will win this important contest, as they've done all year.
AFC Divisional: Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
2 of 4Thanks to a Week 17 win, Baltimore will earn a bye week. And wouldn't you know it, but the Pittsburgh Steelers will see them in the Divisional Round.
This will happen because when Baltimore knocks Cincinnati out of the No. 6 seed, the Oakland Raiders will come sliding in. Oakland will upset Houston in the Wild Card Round, while Pittsburgh will oust Denver.
So, naturally, the Steelers and Ravens will meet once again the playoffs.
For Baltimore to win this game, the game plan must not change from the regular season. Feed Ray Rice all game long, blitz the hell out of Ben Roethlisberger and play physical defense.
The Steelers don't have much of a run game, and their offensive line is vulnerable—not to mention that Big Ben won't be as mobile. As for the Ravens offense, Rice is their answer to beating anyone.
Regardless of his production, Pittsburgh knows he's capable of bowling them, so coach Dick LeBeau will stack the box. When applicable, Baltimore will give Joe Flacco the green light to hit Torrey Smith downfield.
No one in Pittsburgh's secondary can keep up with Smith in single coverage, as we saw in their game at Pittsburgh, so the play-action pass will prove deadly. The Steelers' only chance to is get Mike Wallace going. However, with Big Ben having little time to throw on top of his limited mobility, Baltimore can finally get over the Pittsburgh hump.
AFC Championship: At New England Patriots
3 of 4If only the New England Patriots would have fallen in Week 17 to Buffalo, the Ravens would be hosting this game, but nonetheless, they'll have a chance to beat Tom Brady and Co.
Ironically, the two teams met in the 2009 postseason, with Baltimore blasting New England 33-14. So the Ravens have proven they can win on the road against the Patriots.
And if they want to do it again, pressuring Tom Brady is imperative.
Favoring Baltimore is New England's lack of a deep threat to stretch the field. Yes, TE Rob Gronkowski is an unstoppable beast, but as long as he's double-covered and getting a jam at the line of scrimmage, the Ravens can limit his production.
Elsewhere, The Ravens will have to play man-coverage on Deion Branch and Wes Welker so they can rush at least six on Brady every snap. Regardless of how great Brady may be, he can't do work with covered targets and no protection in the pocket.
Offensively, the Ravens need to send a message early, meaning they must go deep a few times to Torrey Smith. New England has the NFL's worst pass defense. However, they are solid when backed up inside their own red zone.
Therefore, you have to stretch them out early and use Ray Rice to slam them in the trenches once near the goal line. As the game progresses, they will wear down and that's when Rice will take over.
Super Bowl XLVI: Vs Green Bay Packers
4 of 4This will be a pivotal matchup in Super Bowl XLVI.
The Green Bay Packers will repeat as NFC champs thanks to being a rare NFC team who plays outdoors in cold weather. The Saints, Falcons, 49ers and Lions all either play inside and/or in warm-weather cities, so the Pack have a distinct advantage.
That being said, this game will have a level playing field, since Baltimore also plays outdoors in the cold.
Much like with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, getting QB pressure on Aaron Rodgers is extremely vital to slowing down Green Bay's offense. Rodgers is arguably the most mobile QB in the game, though, so keeping him in check is also a concern.
Nonetheless, man coverage is Baltimore's best bet. Rodgers can pick apart any zone defense, so just manning up and going mano-y-mano with press coverage will negate the odds of a blown coverage. A LB spy on Rodger, however, isn't a bad idea.
Offensively, Baltimore must attack on the ground to manipulate the Packers' opportunistic defense. They lead the NFL in interceptions, so putting the game in Ray Rice's hands is the safest bet. Plus, Green Bay allows almost five yards per rush, so Rice will roll.
Then, much like in their previous games, the Ravens will be able to set up play-action to hit Torrey Smith downfield. The fewer chances the Green Bay secondary has to pick off passes, the better the odds of the Ravens offense controlling the game tempo and limiting the Packers' offensive possessions.
In turn, the odds of winning the Super Bowl will be significantly increased.
Follow John Rozum on Twitter @ Sportswriter27
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