4 Postseason Scenarios in Play for the Detroit Lions in Week 17

Here we are, heading into Week 17 of the 2011 NFL season, and there isn't one Detroit Lions fan talking about the draft.

The last time we were even able to think about the possibility of playoffs in December, it was 2007, and we were wondering when the Lions were going to pull out of their tailspin and get back to winning football.

We didn't expect it would be four years later, but that's how it turned out.

So for the first time in a long time, the Lions are looking forward to a 17th game of the season. Nobody wants to talk about the past or the future, we want to talk about the right now.

And right now, all but one NFC playoff spot is claimed, the Lions are in with a game to spare (technically three, since the nearest wild-card contenders are 7-8), and the only thing left to determine is who the Lions will draw in the first round.

The Lions can lock up the fifth seed in the NFC with a win at Green Bay or an Atlanta loss. With a Lions' loss and a Falcons' win, the Lions will be the sixth seed. In either case, they will almost certainly be playing whatever playoff games they have on the road.

So what do all the Week 17 games really mean to the Lions?

To answer that, I will break down each of the Lions' potential first-round opponents and how Week 17 could facilitate each scenario.

New Orleans Saints

Lions Play the Saints if:

The Lions lose to the Packers

AND

The Falcons beat the Tampa Bay Bucs

AND

The Saints and San Francisco 49ers both win or both lose (giving the Saints the third seed).

What it means to the Lions:

This would certainly be an opportunity for the Lions to play for redemption, as the Saints' game was perhaps their most embarrassing loss of the season.

The Lions played the Saints close in a game they could have won, but they put on perhaps their most undisciplined display of the season on national television, which led many talking heads to (prematurely) call the Lions dead in the water in the playoff chase.

Ndamukong Suh was serving the first game of his suspension when the Lions played the Saints as well, so this is also an opportunity to see how the game would/could have have turned out differently with the Lions' biggest defensive force manning the middle.

Of course, this is also arguably the most difficult possible matchup for the Lions in the first round. There are legitimate questions going around regarding whether the Saints are a more dangerous team than the Packers.

I won't weigh in on that, though I will say that the Saints appear to be playing some of their best football of the year right now, and it's never fun taking on a team riding a huge wave of momentum, especially walking into their house, where they've been unstoppable.

Of course, that description could apply to the Lions too, but considering the only way this matchup happens is if the Lions lose to the Packers, that momentum might be slowed a bit.

San Francisco 49ers

Lions Play the 49ers If:

The Lions lose and Falcons win (Lions fall to sixth seed)

AND

The 49ers lose to the St. Louis Rams

AND

The Saints beat the Carolina Panthers (Saints move into the second seed, 49ers fall to third seed)

What it means to the Lions:

This is perhaps the least likely possible scenario, since the 49ers should be overwhelming favorites to beat the hapless Rams with a first-round bye on the line. The talent and motivation are both there.

But if all hell breaks loose and this is the first-round matchup, prepare for a week of talking about handshakes.

Nobody, at this point, remembers what happened in the Lions' first loss of the season. The Lions lost; we remember that part. But I don't think they've showed a highlight of the game since it happened.

All any of us can remember is Jim Harbaugh bouncing around the field, lifting his shift up, giving Jim Schwartz a handslap and an "out of the way now" shove and Schwartz coming after him to give a piece of mind.

Harbaugh's smug press conference afterwards ("It's on me, I shook his hand too hard") and a week of talking about who was right or wrong and the rest of the season wondering if that was a microcosm of the Lions' discipline problems.

Once in a while, there's a game like this, where animosity between coaches overshadows the players on the field, and more attention is given to the handshake/confrontation between coaches than any confrontations between players on the field.

This would be that game.

It would also be an opportunity for Jeff Backus to redeem himself after Justin Smith ate his lunch all day last time.

Dallas Cowboys

Lions Play the Cowboys if:

The Lions beat the Packers

OR

The Falcons lose to the Bucs (Lions earn fifth seed)

AND

The Cowboys beat the New York Giants (Cowboys win NFC East and earn fourth seed).

What it means to the Lions:

Perhaps, the most wounded team of the four.

The Cowboys come into this week with a gimpy Tony Romo and an unavailable DeMarco Murray.

In other words, they may have no offense.

Of course, if it's that bad, they won't beat the Giants and make the playoffs, so let's take a leap of faith and assume the Cowboys are competent for a moment.

If there was one game the Lions won that could have been called a fluke, it was the Cowboys' game. Don't get me wrong, the Lions fought hard and clawed their way back from a seemingly insurmountable deficit to win that game.

But come on. We all know Romo game that game away with a flurry of ridiculous interceptions. The Cowboys outclassed the Lions in every area for most of the game, and then their quarterback started giving away gifts.

This is an intriguing game if only to see which of these teams will show up in this game. The Cowboys have a long string of postseason disappointments, almost as long as the Lions' string of postseason absences.

Will the Cowboys get good Romo or bad Romo? Will they decide they can run the ball in this game? Will the Lions commit three penalties or 13? Will they start strong and fade or start flat and rev up later or can they actually play 60 minutes?

No givens in this one, it'll just be one of those games where you sit back and see what happens. Both teams are talented and have a penchant for losing games in the dumbest way possible.

New York Giants

Lions Play the Giants if:

The Lions beat the Packers

OR

The Falcons lose to the Bucs (Lions earn fifth seed)

AND

The Giants beat the Cowboys (Giants win NFC East and earn fourth seed).

What it means to the Lions:

This is the only possible first-round matchup that isn't a rematch. The Lions haven't played the Giants, but they have played the Cowboys, 49ers and Saints.

Considering Matthew Stafford just got cheated out of his first career Pro Bowl invite in favor of Eli Manning (who has fewer passing yards and touchdowns, a lower completion percentage and QB rating, and more interceptions than Stafford, not to mention less team wins) on account of the usual New York voting bias, this could be a chance for Stafford to prove his superiority.

But of course, the Pro Bowl is irrelevant, especially when we're talking about the playoffs. If Stafford goes 6-of-30 and the Lions win, nobody is going to care about stats.

So the question, then, is what weaknesses can the Lions exploit to win this game?

For starters, Manning is the type of quarterback to get rattled under intense pressure. His career interception numbers tell that story.

But many of Manning's career interceptions weren't his fault at all. They also tell the story of a talented, but inconsistent, stable of receivers.

On their best day, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham can take apart an opposing defense and stand among elite receiving trios in the league.

On their worst day, they can drop 10 passes and tip four more into the hands of defenders.

The key to this (theoretical) game may be to put enough pressure on the Giants offense to force their receivers to play a perfect game. Considering how sloppy the Giants tend to play, it may be too tall an order for them.

Then again, it's sheer folly to assume the playoff Giants would be the same as the regular season Giants. This is a seasoned playoff team with the ability to kick it into a new gear in the postseason.