FIFA World Cup Draw 2014: Ranking the Toughest Qualifying Groups in UEFA

On Saturday, July 30th, the preliminary World Cup draw took place in Rio de Janeiro. For some qualifying regions, this was a drawing for an early part of qualification.  But in UEFA, it is the final draw.  Nine groups were drawn from six pots. Eight of these groups have six teams while one group only has five teams.  

I thought it would be interesting to look at each team's FIFA world rankings, divide by the number of teams in the group and see which group has the highest FIFA world rankings.  The ranking will be estimated to the nearest whole number.

While I do realize there are some issues (how does FIFA figure out Equatorial Guinea is one spot ahead of Fiji?), I think the results will indicate how close the groups are to each other.  I do realize it is kind of unfair when you get to the stage of the world rankings (around the 150s or so) where one team could drag a very tough qualifying group down.  But it's still part of determining the best group.  Enjoy.

9. Group H

Teams: England, Montenegro, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, San Marino

Average FIFA World Ranking: 71

My calculations show that Group H is the easiest group.  England have been overrated in the rankings at six, in my opinion.  Along with England is dark horse Montenegro and the two Euro 2012 hosts, Ukraine and Poland.  Rounding out the group is Moldova and San Marino, whose FIFA ranking of 203 (tied for worst team in the world) definitely dragged this group down.

8. Group D

Teams: Netherlands, Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia, Andorra

Average FIFA World Ranking: 68

Group D is the second worst qualifying group, thanks in big part to 203rd ranked Andorra.  This group, however, only features one team that went to the World Cup last year, Holland, who got to the final. Turkey is ranked 24th in the world, while Hungary and Romania both hover around the 50 mark.  Estonia is 79th. Looking at this from the perspective of a Hungary or a Romania, finishing second may not be out of reach.

7. Group C

Teams: Germany, Sweden, Republic of Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan

Overall FIFA World Ranking: 60

Group C's overall ranking was only fractions away from Groups B and F, so the three are relatively the same.  They are led by one of the elite teams in Europe, Germany, who are ranked third.  Next come Sweden and the Republic of Ireland, 19th and 33rd, respectively. Austria are 66th and rounding out the group are the 122nd ranked Faroe Islands (a great draw from the fifth pot) and Kazakhstan, who are 126th.

T-6. Group F

Teams: Portugal, Russia, Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg

Overall FIFA World Ranking: 60

Group F is in a deadlock with Group B and only fractions away from Group C.  The group, on paper, looks fairly easy.  Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo lead the pack with a ranking of seventh, followed by Russia at 18th.  Israel are 32nd, while Northern Ireland is 62nd, Azerbaijan is 11th and the tiny nation of Luxembourg is 128th.  From the looks of it, Portugal and Russia should both have no excuse if they don't advance.

T-6. Group B

Teams: Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia, Malta

Overall FIFA World Ranking: 60

Italy are head of this group with a FIFA ranking of eighth, while Denmark and the Czech Republic are 21st and 38th, respectively.  The final three teams: Bulgaria, Armenia and Malta are 48th, 70th and 173rd. Italy should win this group, but as for the runner-up spot, watch out for the Czechs.  I think Denmark is overrated and the Czechs, with their stiff defense, could be runners up.

4. Group A

Teams: Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Scotland, Macedonia, Wales

Overall FIFA World Ranking: 59

To me, this is a very wide open group, maybe the most wide open of them all.  The Croatians and Serbians are ninth and 26th, with the Belgians and Scots behind at 37th and 71st.  The two remaining teams are Macedonia (96th) and Wales (112th).  Although Croatia was in Pot 1 and Serbia was in Pot 2, Croatia didn't even qualify for the World Cup last year and Serbia beat Germany and almost got to the round of 16.  I think Serbia will top the group.  

On a side note, look out for Scotland.  They seem to always be unlucky in the draws, but this time they could play spoiler.

3. Group G

Teams: Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia, Liechtenstein

Overall FIFA World Ranking: 57

At first glance I thought this group may be the easiest in European qualifying.  The FIFA World Rankings told me I was wrong.  Greece and Slovakia are the two leaders of the pack at 13th and 29th, respectively. Then we have Bosnia and Herzegovina (41st), Lithuania (58th), Latvia (83rd) and Liechtenstein (118th). While Greece came out of Pot 1, I think they are too weak to overtake the physical Slovaks, who will top this group.  Any of the last four teams in the group could find themselves in a playoff.

2. Group E

Teams: Norway, Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus, Iceland

Overall FIFA World Ranking: 54

This group has many quality sides.  The three top sides are Norway (12), Slovenia (22) and Switzerland (30).  Following them are Albania, Cyprus and Iceland, who are ranked 59th, 80th and 121st.  I think Norway (who, by the way, failed to make it last World Cup cycle) are overrated and Slovenia (who were an extra time goal away from the round of 16) have enough offensive firepower to win the group, but Switzerland (who defeated the World Champions) pose a viable threat as well.

1. Group I

Teams: Spain, France, Belarus, Georgia, Finland

Overall FIFA World Ranking: 38

According to me, and the FIFA rankings, Group H is by far the group of death.  World Champion Spain (first) and young, talented France (15th) headline the group.  The next three teams—Belarus (42nd), Georgia (57th) and Finland (75th)—are no pushovers though.  While Spain and France should be the top two, in a group like this, no one is safe.