Stymieing Midfield Runners the Key for Manchester United to Beat Watford
Last weekend’s Premier League action could hardly have contrasted more starkly from Watford and Manchester United’s standpoints; the former battled back from two down to beat West Ham United 4-2 at the London Stadium, while the latter lost to arch-rivals Manchester City in their much-feted derby.
As a result, the confidence levels of the two teams will be in different ranges. While the Hornets’ players may just be starting to believe things are coming together for them under Walter Mazzarri—who has overseen a steady incline in performances since the season began—Jose Mourinho’s lot have been left re-evaluating themselves after being shown who is boss in the north-west.
Add in that United lost in Rotterdam on Thursday evening and have little time to prepare for this match—and that a number of first-team stars, such as Eric Bailly, Paul Pogba and Anthony Martial, started the defeat to Feyenoord in the Europa League—and you might just have the recipe for an upset in north London on Sunday.
Watford
Mazzarri wasted no time in installing his favoured 3-5-2 template at Watford upon taking the reins, but he has already wavered in his belief in the system twice, switching out of it in half the games his team have played so far.
Most notably, last weekend’s win over West Ham saw them change from 3-5-2 to 4-3-3 in around the 20th minute, and from there, they turned the game on its head, scoring four. It makes it tough to project which shape the Italian will plump for, as there’s an argument for starting out of the 4-3-3 this time, but it’s also feasible to try the 3-5-2 again and switch out if necessary.
Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney finally found form against West Ham and combined well, with Ighalo even doing well from a left-wing role in the 4-3-3. He ran relentlessly at Sam Byram and stressed the channel between Byram and James Collins in the Hammers' back line.
Younes Kaboul is a certain starter at the back in a four or a three, while Miguel Britos will likely line up on his left. Craig Cathcart played as an emergency right-back against West Ham and could do so again, but a better solution would be to move Daryl Janmaat back and start Nordin Amrabat—so long as he’s fit.
Manchester United
United utilised a 4-2-3-1 formation in their first four games of the season, recording mixed performances in it. While the attack often purred, there were question marks surrounding the midfield and whether the formation could draw the best from Pogba. The Manchester derby proved it had its issues.
On Thursday against Feyenoord, Mourinho altered his midfield and crafted a 4-3-3, with Morgan Schneiderlin holding behind Ander Herrera and Pogba. It’s a shape far better suited to Pogba’s natural game, though if it carries into the next match, much of the personnel will change.
Martial’s continued indifferent performance levels will have many clamouring for Marcus Rashford to start from the left, flanking Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and those calls would not be unfounded.
Pressure point 1: Extra bodies forward for Watford
Last season, under Quique Sanchez Flores, you could stop Watford if you could stop Ighalo and Deeney. They were hard to nullify, but if you managed it, you need not worry about anyone else scoring. They bagged 77 percent of the Hornets’ goals in the league in 2015-16, per WhoScored.com, with Almen Abdi and Ben Watson (both on two) the next-highest scorers behind them.
The problem Ighalo and Deeney presented to defences was a classic one: they played as a strike partnership, and that forced centre-backs to mark them one-on-one. Defenders in 2016 have become accustomed to marking two vs. one, always having a spare man, and Deeney in particular is a punishing, physical presence who can hold you off and roll you.
Their interplay was excellent, with Deeney dropping in, creating a rip in the defensive structure, bringing balls out of the sky and laying them into Ighalo’s path. It was physical; it was direct; it was simple...but it was also extremely effective.
Once defences wised up to it, though, and dedicated resources to stopping them working as a tandem, their form dropped off a cliff. It became clear they were operating as an isolated pair, and as numbers descended to nullify them, no Watford players were able to help.
That’s because Flores’ midfield, was, well, poorly set up. He often played four central midfielders across the line, so there was no natural width and no players breaking forward into wide areas, and the distance between themselves and the strikers was often 15-20 yards.
Under Mazzarri, that’s the big change. Not only has Roberto Pereyra been signed and unleashed, but Etienne Capoue has been given a more expansive role, too. They’re both flourishing, with the latter shocking everyone with his three goals from four games.
Against West Ham, midfield runners consistently flooded the penalty box and worked off Ighalo and Deeney’s hold-up play. Pereyra and Capoue have both been allowed forward at the same time, meaning Watford are at times piling between four and five players into the box for attacks.
In short, the lines have been re-linked. The same midfield three play the same roles, be it in a 3-5-2 or a 4-3-3, and they’re jelling fast. Manchester United’s back line must be prepared to go one-on-one with a striker and be alert to the midfield runs.
Pressure point 2: Working the space behind Behrami
Watford’s defensive record after four Premier League games is significantly worse than most expected it to be. Cliches about Italian coaching aside, it was believed that Mazzarri would toughen the Hornets up and, in a 3-5-2 base, they’d concede infrequently.
But Watford have the joint-third-worst goals conceded record (eight), averaging the concession of two per game. Granted, some have come from set pieces, but generally speaking, there have been large spaces left for opposing teams to take advantage of.
In particular, the space behind the midfield three and in front of the defensive line is, at times, far too large. Behind Behrami and in front of Kaboul there appears a chasm of 10-15 yards, and it’s space in which the likes of Zlatan will indulge.
It occurs when Capoue and Pereyra push forward and press the opposing midfielders in possession—they’re both inherently aggressive in their running and closing down—and Behrami shifts up the pitch to close the space between himself and his two colleagues.
A quick pass in behind him, then, to a player clever enough to drift into that area, can be dangerous. Given how brilliant Zlatan’s knock-downs and flicks into these positions can be, Watford must be wary of any Red Devils (Pogba!) attempting to run onto these from deep.
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