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Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid: Areas Where the Tie Will Be Won and Lost

Clark WhitneyMay 1, 2016

Bayern Munich have an uphill battle to fight on Tuesday as they play host to Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-finals tie.

The Spaniards won the first leg 1-0 at home, with a flourish of brilliance by Saul Niguez putting them in the driver’s seat. The youngster slalomed through the Bayern defense before delivering a perfectly placed effort just inside the post. Bayern had most of the game to reply but couldn’t find an answer. 

Heading into the second leg, Pep Guardiola and company will face a different battlefield as Diego Simeone and Atleti hold the advantage.

Click “Begin Slideshow” to read Bleacher Report’s picks of the areas that could decide the tie.

Tactics: Pep Guardiola vs. Diego Simeone

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In the first leg, Simeone got the better of Guardiola from a tactical perspective. The Atleti trainer’s job was made a little easier by the fact his side scored the opener and thus put Bayern under pressure to get their away goal or face a steep uphill climb in the second leg, but to be fair, the Madrid side defended extraordinarily well.

Guardiola didn’t help his cause in particular, with Thomas Muller a glaring omission. Playing with classic (rather than inverted) wingers, Bayern’s wide forwards were more inclined to play crosses than shoot. And they did play plenty of balls into the center, but Robert Lewandowski was isolated. Another target, like Muller, would have been helpful.

If stability in midfield was Guardiola’s goal in dropping Muller for a third central midfielder, that didn’t help: Saul danced past two of Bayern’s central three (Xabi Alonso and Thiago Alcantara) as well as Juan Bernat before his finish.

It will be interesting to see whether Guardiola stays the course in the second leg or takes another approach. Simeone isn’t really under pressure to change, as the impetus is on Bayern to level the score.

The Center of Bayern's Attack

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In previous years, Bayern’s greatest strength was their wingers. This year, though, the central forwards have taken center stage.

Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller have combined for 70 goals in all competitions, and if Bayern are to progress, they’ll probably get a goal or two from one or both in the process.

Bayern’s reliance on the central forwards is even more likely than usual for Tuesday’s match because Atleti will probably defend deep. They’re in control as it stands and prefer to play patiently without the ball.

Thus, Bayern are unlikely to have many counterattacking chances for their wingers to cut inward, meaning that they’ll likely be playing the ball into the center.

Guardiola typically learns from his mistakes, and with Bayern needing a goal, he probably won't bench Muller again. The Germany international scored a big goal over the weekend and will be champing at the bit heading into Tuesday’s match. As will Lewandowski, who was rested over the weekend.

Atleti’s Efficiency in Counterattacking Situations

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Atleti will enter the second leg knowing one goal could effectively kill off the tie. It’s hard to score one goal against Simeone’s side, let alone three. And that would be the minimum requirement for Bayern if their guests were to get an away goal.

Atleti had chances in the first leg to make it 2-0 (Antoine Griezmann forced a great save and Fernando Torres was unlucky to be denied by the post after doing everything else right), but ultimately, they were unable to capitalize.

At the Allianz Arena, the longer they keep Bayern from scoring, the more likely the game is to open up. Then it comes down to the simple matter of efficiency.

Juventus had a commanding lead and were minutes away from beating Bayern in the round of 16, but they were left to rue their missed opportunities as the Bavarians advanced after extra time.

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The Returning Center-Backs

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Bayern have been without Jerome Boateng throughout the spring, while Atleti have missed Diego Godin since before the first leg. Both central defenders are world class, and although their respective sides have done well in their absence, their quality shows in games in the latter stages of the Champions League.

Comparing the two, there is no question that Godin is the sharper player right now in terms of match practice. He's played all spring and has only missed the last two games. However, whether he will truly be 100 percent on Tuesday is in question.

He's in a race against time as he recovers from a muscular injury and is expected to start, but one needs only to look back at the 2014 Champions League final to recall Simeone made a mistake in starting Diego Costa when the Spain international wasn't completely fit.

That cost his side a much-needed substitute, and a wrong decision on Tuesday could cost his side a goal. Godin's fitness could influence the game in one way or another.

Boateng, meanwhile, only made his long-awaited return over the weekend. But to his credit, he played quite well against Borussia Monchengladbach. He's fit, but the question is more a matter of his sharpness.

Bayern have done well enough with David Alaba at center-back, although Juan Bernat's poor performances lately could see the Austrian shifted to left-back with Boateng starting alongside Javi Martinez.

In form, Boateng might be the best center-back in the world. The question is how quickly he can recover his class after such a lengthy absence.

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