5 Key Questions Ahead of Juventus' Serie A Clash with AC Milan
On Saturday night, AC Milan travel to face Juventus in a clash of Italy’s most prestigious football clubs. However, while both have gleaming trophy cabinets, both find themselves in below-average league positions at present.
Milan occupy sixth place in Serie A on 20 points, while Juventus sit one spot and two points beneath them. Both teams are a fair distance away from where they expected to be at the start of this season.
As reigning champions having won four successive Scudetti, Juventus’ current state is out of the ordinary. Milan have languished in mid-table for two years, so their current position is less shocking, but after heavy summer investment, they remain well off their initial target of the top three.
With both giants looking to galvanise their seasons, their meeting this weekend offers the perfect opportunity for salvation. Here, we consider five key questions ahead of the crucial match.
Which Team Will Be More Affected by Injuries?
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For the past few weeks, Milan have had to make do without several key players.
Mario Balotelli has been out since late September with a groin problem and, after having surgery on the injury, per BBC Sport, he is set to miss the next four weeks of action.
Brazilian centre-back Alex and creative midfielder Andrea Bertolacci missed Milan’s 0-0 draw with Atalanta prior to the international break, and it is unknown if they will be back in time for this weekend.
Balotelli’s absence is something Milan have adapted to in recent weeks, but both Alex and Bertolacci’s presences will be missed in the centre of defence and midfield, respectively.
Juventus could also be missing important first-team members on Saturday night.
The Bianconeri’s biggest concern regards Gianluigi Buffon, who was taken off during Italy’s 2-2 draw with Romania. According to the club’s official website (h/t Football Italia), “his availability against Milan will be evaluated.”
Other notable potential absentees for Juventus include Martin Caceres, Stephan Lichtsteiner and Mario Mandzukic.
While Milan would benefit from being able to select Alex, Bertolacci and Balotelli when picking their matchday squad, none of those players are anywhere near as influential to the Rossoneri as Buffon is to Juventus.
The iconic goalkeeper has been one of his club’s steadying influences in a turbulent season, and Juventus would seriously miss his assured leadership from the back.
How Will Juventus Line Up?
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Should Buffon miss out through injury, his guidance will be missed, but this will not be Juventus’ greatest tactical quandary.
Massimiliano Allegri has chopped and changed this season, utilising a multitude of different systems to varying degrees of success.
The 4-3-1-2 that worked so well for Juventus last season has been used. So too has a slightly more defensive 4-5-1 formation, which Allegri implemented successfully away to Manchester City in the Champions League in a bid to congest space.
A rough version of the 3-5-2 system has been used as well, though Allegri has yet to decide on which of these shapes works best for his team.
Milan are almost certainly going to line up in the 4-3-3 system that has brought them mildly improved form of late, which may influence Allegri to go with the 4-3-1-2.
Up against only one striker in Bacca, Juventus could afford to sacrifice one defender and go with a back four. However, instead of mirroring Milan, they may opt for four in midfield and two up front to achieve numerical overloads.
A strike pairing of Paulo Dybala and Simone Zaza or Alvaro Morata would be a test for Milan’s two chosen centre-backs, while a midfield diamond would allow Juventus to match up with Milan’s three and give their own deep-lying midfielder—probably Claudio Marchisio—space to dictate.
Have Milan Found Their Ideal System?
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Following a humiliating 4-0 home loss to Napoli, Sinisa Mihajlovic brought further tactical change to Milan. The 4-3-1-2 system he initially favoured wasn’t working; it left the team defensively vulnerable, so he brought in a 4-3-3.
In the new system, Milan have been undefeated, winning three and drawing two of their five games since the tactical switch. In the process, they have conceded three goals in five matches, whereas previously they had conceded 13 in seven.
Alongside the defensive improvements, Milan look slightly more cohesive going forward. Within the 4-3-3, Giacomo Bonaventura and Alessio Cerci play on the left and right wing respectively, while Carlos Bacca operates as the lone striker.
As inverted wingers, Bonaventura and Cerci tend to cut in onto their favoured foot to supply Bacca, whose intelligent movement off the last line of defence can create clear opportunities for through balls from his team-mates in wider positions.
Undoubtedly, Milan’s individual compartments of defence and attack have worked better since the change in formation. Ultimately, this is due to the greater width and structural balance achieved in the 4-3-3 system.
Mihajlovic has spoken previously of his wish to install a 4-4-2 system at some stage in the future, meaning the 4-3-3 may merely be a placeholder. However, it has worked well for Milan so far, and this is almost certainly how they will line up against Juventus.
Which Team Benefited More from the International Break?
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Unsurprisingly for a club whose players have the highest overall market value in Serie A, per Transfermarkt, a lot of Juventus’ talent featured for their countries during the international break.
While this speaks positively of the quality within the champions’ squad, it is not necessarily a positive thing ahead of a crucial league match.
As aforementioned, key players such as Buffon and Lichtsteiner sustained injuries that make them doubts for this weekend’s match, while others such as Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini, Paul Pogba, Patrice Evra, Sami Khedira and Dybala featured in action for their respective national teams.
Milan also saw several first-team players called up for international duty though nowhere near as many of them played such influential roles.
Luca Antonelli didn’t start either of Italy’s friendlies against Belgium or Romania, while Milan captain Riccardo Montolivo played around half an hour of the latter match.
Energetic midfielder Juraj Kucka featured for Slovakia and Bacca started one of Colombia’s 2018 World Cup qualifiers and came off the bench in the other.
Simply put, almost the entirety of Juventus’ usual starting line-up played multiple times in the past two weeks, meaning the international "break" wasn’t much of a break at all.
Milan, on the other hand, had far less direct involvement. Key players such as Alessio Romagnoli and Giacomo Bonaventura didn't play any part in Italy’s friendlies—though the latter was called up.
Essentially, the international period had much less impact upon Milan’s first team in terms of fitness and injury concerns. As such, they may be the fresher—if not better—side come Saturday night.
Who Is Under More Pressure?
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Juventus coach Allegri enjoyed a remarkable first season at the helm. Taking over from Antonio Conte, he had big shoes to fill but did an exceptional job, guiding the Bianconeri to a domestic double and a Champions League final.
However, the start to his second year in charge has been unexpectedly poor. After failing to win any of their first three league games, Juventus have since improved, but the upturn has been punctuated by inconsistency.
There is uncertainty as to what formation is Juventus’ best, while more specific questions have been fired at Allegri regarding his team selections, particularly his occasional omission of Dybala from the starting lineup.
Sinisa Mihajlovic has had problems of his own at the beginning of his maiden year as Milan coach. He has had to integrate many new signings and tweak tactics but, on the whole, his Milan team looks better than last season’s version.
Considering this, as well as the fact that Milan are above Juventus in the league table and are the away side, Allegri’s Juventus will be more under pressure to deliver a positive result on Saturday night.
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