2011 Bowl Predictions: 10 Key Offensive Big Ten Players in Bowl Games

The Big Ten doesn't have a particularly good national image right now, and a large part of that has to do with the way the conference has performed in bowl games recently.

Only the SEC rivals the Big Ten when it comes to getting teams into high-profile bowls.  Both conferences routinely place two teams in BCS bowls and enjoy premier matchups outside the BCS.

This fundamental divide between the two conferences as seen by the majority of the college football world comes down to, in large part, the fact that the SEC gets teams in big games and they win.  The Big Ten gets teams in big games and they lose.

The only way to combat this?  Forcibly change the conversation.  If the Big Ten can start to win its high-profile bowl games, it will go a long way toward repairing the conference's national image.

How does the Big Ten win this year?  Let's look at a key offensive player for each team and figure out what each needs to do to help his team win.

Caleb TerBush, Purdue

Purdue vs. Western Michigan, Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl

If there is one area that the Western Michigan Broncos excel, it is tossing the pigskin.  Western Michigan is a poor defensive team with average special teams and no discernible run game, but when you average 328 yards per game through the air you can afford a few mistakes elsewhere.  The Broncos are 18th in the country in scoring offense (35.6 ppg) and a lot of it is due to quarterback Alex Carder and receiver Jordan White.  Carder is seventh nationally in total offense and White leads all receivers with 137 receiving yards per game and 10 receptions per game.

In light of this, Western's game plan should be obvious: throw the ball on first, second, third and sometimes fourth down.  Throw short and throw long.  Throw, throw, thr—eh, you get it.

Purdue should be able to run the ball well enough (Western is allowing 215 yards rushing per game, after all), but if Danny Hope's boys plan to keep up in what will most likely be a MAC-like shootout, Purdue quarterback Caleb TerBush is going to have to air it out himself.

That would be a first.  TerBush has only one 200-plus-yard game this season and has thrown multiple touchdown passes twice.  In fact, TerBush has only even attempted more than 25 passes in a game twice this season.  Backup Robert Marve will get a few snaps, but as the clear starter TerBush needs to raise the level of his passing game to keep pace with a dangerous Bronco team looking for its eighth win  this season.

James Vandenberg, Iowa

Iowa vs. Oklahoma, Insight Bowl

The Sooners have only scored fewer than 30 points three times all season.  A big part of that is thanks to a passing attack that is fourth in the nation (365 yards per game).  So, basically what I said for Caleb TerBush goes double here.  Oklahoma is going to throw the ball against Iowa's mediocre secondary and the Hawkeyes are going to have to counter with offense of their own.

James Vandenberg has shown flashes of this.  Iowa is third in the conference in pass offense and Vandenberg has a respectable pass efficiency rating.  Also, it helps to be able to throw the ball to Marvin McNutt, the conference's leading receiver in yards per game (105).  Vandenberg already has four games of three touchdowns or more, but he has only thrown over 300 yards once.  To keep up with Oklahoma it is quite possible he will need to do both of these things.

Dan Persa, Northwestern

Northwestern vs. Texas A&M, Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas

I'm sensing a pattern.

Yes, the first three slides are all quarterbacks playing against powerful passing offenses that will put up points and require a nearly superhuman effort to keep up with.  I just call them like I see them.

This is another classic example.  Texas A&M may be a .500 team, but it isn't for lack of scoring—at least in the first half.  The Aggies are averaging 287 pass yards per game and 209 rush yards per game, a balanced offense that ranks seventh in the nation in total yards and averages nearly 40 points a game.

On the other sideline is an offense that is cobbled together around the arm of Dan Persa.  The Wildcats average 176 yards rushing per game but don't have a single player averaging more than 50—and the player that averages just shy of 50 is backup quarterback Kain Colter.  Persa is the backbone of the Wildcat attack.  He is second in the conference in total offense and 10th in the nation in pass efficiency.  Persa has eight career games in which he has passed for more than 275 yards, and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in more than half.

Texas A&M will score.  The question is whether Persa can help the Wildcats keep pace.

Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois

Illinois vs. UCLA, Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Here are two completely random sets of numbers: 33, 56, 17, 23, 38, 41; and seven, 14, seven, 14, 17, seven.

Okay, not so random—those are Illinois' point totals from the first six and the last games.  Guess which six-game stretch Illinois went winless in.

A sputtering offense was the fatal flaw that finally cost Ron Zook his job.  Games against Purdue and Michigan both saw Illinois score two late touchdowns that hardly mattered, and the game against Wisconsin was one in which the Illinois offense jumped out to a lead early only to collapse in the second half.

So who was the ultimate cause of this?  Was it offensive coordinator Paul Petrino's lack of a coherent game plan?  Poor offensive line play?  Ron Zook just being involved?

Probably a bit of each, but one thing is striking: Nathan Scheelhaase looked like a different player in the second half of the season.

In the first six games Scheelhaase racked up 1585 yards of total offense, 10 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns.  In the final six games Scheelhaase had 900 yards of total offense, two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns.

Illinois has promising playmakers at the skill positions and a stifling defense to rely on, but it is only as strong as its quarterback.  If Scheelhaase can play like he did over the first half of the season Illinois should be able to win comfortably.  If he plays like the second half—especially a negative-14-yard day vs. Minnesota—then things could get uglier than they have been.

Silas Redd, Penn State

Penn State vs. Houston, TicketCity Bowl

Penn State hasn't had much offensive success this season, but what it has had has come from the legs of Silas Redd.  Redd is fourth in the conference in rush yards per game and has been the workhorse back that Penn State has needed to complement its stingy defense and bail out its suspect passing attack.

With a game against Houston coming up, ball control and solid production on the ground will be paramount.  Penn State has the defensive firepower to fluster Case Keenum and force Houston's offense off the field.  However, once Penn State gets the ball it is going to need to hang onto it to avoid giving Houston many possessions on which to break long pass plays.

Houston's run defense is mediocre by the numbers (171 yards allowed per game) and bad in consideration of who that number has been earned against (C-USA teams).  Redd will have every opportunity to move the chains against the Cougars.  Penn State had better hope he does.

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State

Michigan State vs. Georgia, Outback Bowl

Kirk Cousins is a very good quarterback, but even the best quarterbacks are prone to having off days.  If you go back through Michigan State's performance with Cousins as a starter you will find a correlation between Michigan State losses and "Kirk Cousins games." 

Penn State in 2009?  Less than 50 percent passing and two interceptions.  Iowa in 2010?  Three interceptions.  Alabama in the Capital One Bowl?  An interception and 10-for-18 passing.  Nebraska in 2011?  Eighty-six passing yards.

When Kirk Cousins is on he is the perfect quarterback for what Michigan State wants to be: a suffocating defensive team that wants to run the ball and attack the defense with play-action and vertical passing.  Cousins can make all the throws, can manage the offense and is good at extending plays and finding things downfield.

Against a stout Georgia defense the already-average Michigan State rushing attack could struggle to gain traction.  If this is the case, the game will fall on the shoulders of Kirk Cousins.  Cousins will have to shoulder the load better than he has in the past.

Rex Burkhead, Nebraska

Nebraska vs. South Carolina, Capital One Bowl

In the Nebraska backfield Taylor Martinez is the flash.  He is the quick quarterback that busts impossibly long runs, throws touchdown passes and gets in nationally reported feuds with his coach.  Rex Burkhead, however, is the true workhorse.

Burkhead followed up a 900-yard season in 2010 with a 1,200-yard season this year, but it hasn't all been easy.  Against Michigan State, Burkhead ran head first into one of the best run defenses in the country, did it 35 times and walked away with 130 yards and two touchdowns in Nebraska's biggest win of the year.  Such is life for the Nebraska running back.

Against South Carolina it is going to be more of the same.  The Gamecock defense is one of the better units in the country, and a defense that is ranked second in the nation in both pass efficiency defense and pass yards allowed will make sure the Huskers earn the majority of the offense on the ground.  Of course, South Carolina isn't too shabby against the run either (135 yards allowed per game).

It will be tough sledding for Burkhead, but if any running back in the conference can hold up to the test it is him.

DeVier Posey, Ohio State

Ohio State vs. Florida, Gator Bowl

One of the most striking things about Ohio State's utter lack of a passing game through most of the season was overlooked because of just how bad the quarterback situation was.  The Joe Bauserman experiment was a grotesque affront to football and for all the promise and potential that Braxton Miller holds for the future, sometimes freshmen just play like freshmen.

However, if you looked downfield you would have noticed that Ohio State's receivers just weren't very good.  A lot of that had to do with youth and inexperience.  Outside of tight end Jake Stoneburner, the top five receivers by number of receptions consist of three underclassmen and DeVier Posey.  That's right, the same DeVier Posey that sat out 10 games ended up catching the fifth-most passes on Ohio State's team.

Watching him perform against Michigan in the final game of the season illustrates just why Posey was so missed on the Ohio State offense.  Posey simply demonstrated a more advanced ability to get open against a solid secondary, something the rest of Ohio State's receivers struggled with at times.

Florida may have many of the same offensive issues that Ohio State has, but one thing the Gators can do is play defense.  Braxton Miller may be improved from his early season self, but for the Buckeyes to play a balanced offensive game Miller is going to need help from his receivers.  DeVier Posey could be a potential game-breaker for an offense that has struggled to find any identity in the passing game this year.

Nick Toon, Wisconsin

Wisconsin vs. Oregon, Rose Bowl

Both these offenses are going to score points on the ground.  Between Montee Ball and LaMichael James there is enough running back talent to fill a few highlight reels.  However, there is one potential matchup that Wisconsin will look to take advantage of in the Rose Bowl: Nick Toon in the secondary.

Oregon isn't particularly known for its defense, but for the most party the Ducks play better than average defense.  That is other than in the secondary.  Oregon is currently 82nd in pass yards allowed at 243. 

Furthermore, USC showed how vulnerable Oregon can be to a very good wide receiver that can make plays down the field.  Against the Ducks, USC freshman Marqies Lee pulled down eight receptions for 187 yards and a touchdown while sophomore Robert Woods had seven catches for 53 yards and two scores.

Nick Toon is Wisconsin's leading receiver and has shown a particular knack for getting open down the field on the way to big plays in the passing game.

These two teams will trade punches on the ground, but the team that can come up with more big plays in the pass game will have a distinct advantage.  Nick Toon gives Wisconsin a great weapon to make these game-changing plays.

Denard Robinson, Michigan

Michigan vs. Virginia Tech, Sugar Bowl

When new offensive coordinator Al Borges got to Ann Arbor, he made it clear that he would do his best to scale back the dependence of the offense on Denard Robinson.  While Robinson is a unique talent, he was also run down in 2010 because of how much the offense needed him to succeed.

This year?  Robinson still leads Michigan in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns while throwing for another 2,000 yards.  Like it or not, Al, Michigan still lives and dies by the feet and arm of Denard Robinson.

Against Michigan State Robinson struggled under pressure and in making throws downfield in adverse conditions.  Michigan lost.  Against Notre Dame, Robinson was downright bad for three quarters—coincidentally the three quarters that Michigan struggled the most in.  When Robinson turned it on in the final quarter, the Michigan offense came alive.

Virginia Tech has a very good defense and will focus on pressuring Denard.  If Robinson struggles, so too will the Wolverines.