Philadelphia Phillies: Bold Predictions for Phillies' Top 25 Prospects in 2012

The Philadelphia Phillies have invested a lot of time and money into the future of the franchise, and when you dig into the facts, it shows. Though the Phillies have been competitive at the MLB level for quite some time now, they've also been quite competitive in building the farm system in order to sustain the big-league roster.

How they've used that system has varied. Fans of the club will see the fruits of those labors in Major League talents like Chase Utley or Cole Hamels, or similarly, in players acquired from other clubs, like Hunter Pence or Roy Halladay. Inversely, most of the fruits of that labor are yet to be seen.

Though prospects are certainly no guarantee to work out at the major league level, teams spend top dollar on resources to help them make sound decisions, and the Phillies are no different. This list will analyze the Phils' top 25 prospects and offer a bold prediction or two about what 2012 has in store for each of these players.

Before we begin, however, it is important to note that the actual ranking here is secondary. The top 10 prospects on this list were organized by esteemed baseball scouting organization Baseball America, and the rest were filled in by yours truly.

25. Tyler Cloyd

Tyler Cloyd is an interesting prospect, and if you haven't heard of him yet, you may by the time this season gets underway. Though he doesn't have an overpowering repertoire, Cloyd pounds the strike zone and works well with his off-speed pitches. Even if all of those pitches are average, he has learned how to use his stuff to his advantage.

Prediction: Cloyd finishes the season in the starting rotation for the AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

After spending the early stages of his career as a reliever, Cloyd moved into the rotation for the Reading Phillies last season and was quite impressive. He throws strikes and doesn't walk batters, and he posted a FIP of just 2.82.

He'll probably need to log some more innings in AA but could be with the IronPigs right around mid-season.

24. Cesar Hernandez

Cesar Hernandez has had a frustrating time over the last couple of seasons. After an extremely impressive 2010 limited to injuries, Hernandez took a major step backwards in 2011. Though he has a solid glove at second base, he doesn't have the versatility to move from that position, and his bat profiles as average at best to below average at the MLB level.

Prediction: Hernandez becomes an afterthought in 2012.

A few seasons ago, Hernandez was supposed to be the heir to second-baseman Chase Utley. After a dreadful 2011 campaign, that's not happening. The Phillies stocked up on middle infielders in the 2011 draft, and Hernandez is heading in the wrong direction. He'll fall down the depth chart even further in 2012.

23. Aaron Altherr

The Phillies have been anxiously awaiting for Aaron Altherr to "put it all together." Though he is just 20 years old, Altherr has been in the Phillies' system since 2009, and though he has a ton of potential, turning that potential into success has been quite the challenge.

Like a lot of outfielders in this system, Altherr is what scouts would call "toolsy"—he has the potential to do a lot of the game's nuances (run, hit, defend) well but isn't close to being MLB ready in any one of them. Altherr has the tools to be a good defender, but he'll need to get on base to be effective offensively, utilizing his speed and on-base abilities. He'll also need to cut back on his strikeouts and better his plate vision.

Prediction: The Phillies spend another full season coddling Altherr along in 2012, only to be disappointed by the results.

Because his tools are so raw, scouts are divided on Altherr's potential. The Phillies will continue to try to draw that potential out of him, but after slumping at not one, but two levels of the organization in 2011, it isn't unreasonable to believe that Altherr isn't particularly close to taking the next step.

22. Harold Garcia

Harold Garcia is often mentioned in the same breath as Cesar Hernandez because they are similar players in a lot of different ways, including size, defensive ability and most obviously, position. Garcia is a second baseman who missed much of the 2011 campaign due to injury.

The one tool that separates Garcia and Hernandez is the hit tool. The former has the potential to be an on-base machine—something that he has shown a few glimpses of in the past. With little power otherwise (he does have solid power to the gaps) and good speed, that will be the name of his game moving forward.

Prediction: Garcia has a 2012 campaign good enough to separate himself from Hernandez for good.

Garcia will begin the season with the AA Reading Phillies once again in 2012, and should he improve upon his dreadful plate discipline (needs to strikeout less, walk more,) he could put his injury-plagued 2011 campaign behind him and shoot back towards the top of the prospect list this season.

21. David Buchanan

David Buchanan doesn't have the same upside as some of the other arms in this system, but he can certainly become an effective starting pitcher. Because he doesn't have an overpowering repertoire, he relies heavily on his command and control, and when that falters, as was the case in 2011, Buchanan struggles a bit.

Prediction: Though he improves upon his 2011 campaign in his second season with the Clearwater Threshers, Buchanan fails to give himself an identity and falls on the organization's starting pitching depth chart. The Phillies will consider converting him into a reliever.

Without having a particularly eye-catching repertoire and a limited ceiling, it isn't hard to pass right over Buchanan when he isn't pitching well, so unless he does something extraordinary, he'll fall on the depth chart.

20. Mitchell Walding

The approach that the Phillies took to the 2011 draft was quite obvious, frankly, because they had a lot of holes to fill. One of those larger goals was to secure some organizational depth in the middle infield, so the Phillies took a chance on a couple of high school shortstops and were able to land a few of them, the first of whom is Mitchell Walding.

A big, athletic player, Walding has all of the tools to play shortstop at the MLB level, including good range and a very strong arm. He has a frame and skill set to develop into a strong offensive player, including good power and the ability to make contact on a frequent basis.

Prediction: Walding has a fantastic debut season that forces some scouts to consider him a member of the Phillies' top 10 heading into the 2013 season.

The Phillies' current set of top 10 prospects features a lot of familiar names that are close to the MLB. When those prospects graduate, there will be room for a few more players. If Walding can have the offensive season that he is capable of, he could become an impressive type of prospect—a good defensive shortstop with a high offensive ceiling.

19. Tyler Greene

Remember everything that I just said about Mitchell Walding? Well, you can go ahead and apply that to a second shortstop drafted by the Phillies in 2011, Tyler Greene, as well.

Greene and Walding are very comparable because of their ceilings and skill-sets. Both are good defensive shortstops, and both can hit. Both are tall shortstops, and both have the potential to hit for power, though, Greene may have the better hit tool overall.

Prediction: Greene is a top-10 prospect in 2013.

It is as simple as that. Greene has a ton of potential in a Phillies' system that has become thin in the upper levels. Because he got a head start on his pro career, Walding had a taste of the action in 2011. In 2012, I don't think that it is unreasonable to believe that Walding can crack the top 10 after showcasing his tools over a full season.

Bonus Prediction: Greene's promotion to the top 10 knocks fellow shortstop Walding out of the top 10.

It's a hard-knock life.

18. Austin Hyatt

Austin Hyatt has a repertoire not all that unlike now former-Phillie Ryan Madson. Though Madson throws harder, both feature good fastballs and excellent change-ups. Hyatt is going to live or die on that combination of pitches, and so far, he has done an excellent job of setting up that change-up—which Baseball America considers the best in the Phils' system—by locating his fastball.

Prediction: Hyatt makes the transition into the bullpen in 2012 with the Reading Phillies, and not long after, is promoted to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs to make up for some of the depth lost by prospects closer to the MLB.

Hyatt has an ideal repertoire to be an effective reliever, including a change-up that just embarrasses hitters (which is where his high strikeout rate comes from.) The Phillies have starting pitching depth and the luxury of toying with Hyatt as a reliever, and he has the skill set to become a dominant option, especially against right-handed hitters.

17. Lisalberto Bonilla

After a less-than-impressive stint with the Williamsport Crosscutters in 2010, Lisalberto Bonilla opened a few eyes with a very impressive 2011 campaign with the Lakewood BlueClaws. The Phillies moved him back and forth between the rotation and bullpen last season, so when his role becomes more defined, we will have a better idea of his future and by proxy, his projections.

What we do know is that Bonilla is a guy who will have to throw strikes and keep the ball down. He doesn't have any one pitch that is above average, but he commands all of his pitches well and should continue to progress as a sleeper-prospect until his role is better defined.

Prediction: The Phillies keep Bonilla in the rotation in 2012, and he has a season that moves him up the ranks not only among right-handed starting pitchers but also among the Phils' prospects in general.

The Phillies' system has a ton of pitching, and most of it is right-handed. Bonilla is the type of guy that is going to throw strikes, and if he is able to keep the ball down in the strike zone, as he did in 2011, he is going to be successful. That will work in his favor as the Phillies move some of that lower-level talent up through the system.

16. Perci Garner

It's difficult to give Perci Garner a strong prediction because he hasn't pitched much over the last two seasons. After appearing in just two games in 2010, the year he was drafted, Garner made only eight appearances last season, logging just 30 innings.

He was a two-sport athlete for Ball State University, where he was also a quarterback for the football team, but signed with the Phillies when they came calling.

A big right hander, he looks like a big, strong starting pitcher. He isn't as polished as you would like to see for a college arm but has a lively fastball and is continuing to develop his off-speed pitches.

Prediction: With a full, healthy season in the books, Garner makes strides towards putting his name in the same conversation as Brody Colvin.

With Brody Colvin taking a major step backwards in 2011, the door is open for another young arm to impress scouts in the Phillies' system. Could that arm be Garner, or perhaps, someone not yet mentioned on this list?

15. Austin Wright

Austin Wright is a very projectable arm in the regard that he is a near-polished, college, left-handed pitcher. He was excellent in his professional debut as a starting pitcher and made two different stops after signing with the Phillies last summer.

Because of his repertoire, which includes a nice fastball and good breaking stuff, it isn't out of the question to see the Phillies move him through the system quickly as a left-handed reliever, but he had enough success in 2011 to cut it as a starting pitcher, so Wright is definitely a guy to keep an eye on.

Prediction: The Phillies continue to develop Wright as a starting pitcher, and he finishes the season in AA Reading.

Wright is the kind of guy that I believe will move through the system quickly. He showed impressive control and posted big strikeout numbers, all while his BABIP dictated that he was actually unlucky. With little high-end starting pitching depth in the upper levels of the system, Wright is a guy the Phillies can move quickly.

14. Roman Quinn

The Phillies were very happy to be able to draft and sign Roman Quinn out of the second round, and there is no secret as to why: He is a first-round talent that fell to the Phils because of suggested sign-ability issues. A high school shortstop, Quinn had a strong commitment to college, but the Phillies were able to woo him into signing.

Though his position may ultimately be in center field, Quinn's strongest tool is his blinding speed. He was regarded by numerous scouts as the fastest player in the 2011 draft. The Phillies will give him a look at shortstop, however, and he has the solid glove and arm to play there in the minor leagues, where he'll unavoidably draw comparisons to another switch-hitting shortstop you may be familiar with—Jimmy Rollins.

Prediction: Quinn steals 40-plus bases in his first professional season.

Quinn is fast. Really fast. Scouts believe that he'll develop enough power to have, at the very least, a strong line-drive approach at the plate, which should equate to a plethora of extra-base hits. Personally, I will be watching to see what his on-base skills look like. Does he have good plate vision? Can he draw the walk, and of course, just how many bases can he swipe?

13. Michael Schwimer

Fans got their first glimpse of Michael Schwimer last season, but the big, right-handed reliever struggled with his control and didn't live up to his full potential. He throws a straight fastball in the low to mid 90s, has a good slider and mixes in a couple of different off-speed pitches as well. 

Prediction: Schwimer starts the 2012 season in AAA.

A quick glance at the Phillies' depth chart shows that there may not be much room for Schwimer on the big-league roster at the start of the season, especially if Jose Contreras is healthy. That would make for a bullpen composed of Jonathan Papelbon, Antonio Bastardo, Contreras, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Stutes, and Kyle Kendrick.

Schwimer will have to do battle with guys like David Herndon and Justin De Fratus if he wants that final spot. It certainly won't be handed to him.

12. Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez is an interesting prospect. A starting pitcher, he doesn't have a big frame, so scouts question whether or not he'll be able to log innings. He isn't overpowering, and his best pitch is a big, looping curveball that some scouts believe won't fool big-league hitters.

However, Rodriguez also managed to have a great 2011 season that has impressed those same scouts. He may not have the same ceiling that some of the other starting-pitching prospects in the organization do, but he is a young guy at just 21 years old and still has room to learn and grow. If he can spot his fastball and use his curve effectively, he can become a solid middle-of-the-rotation option.

Prediction: Rodriguez begins a successful campaign with the Clearwater Threshers but struggles against tougher competition.

Personally, I'm a believer that Rodriguez will look overmatched against tougher competition. Unless you can pair that looping curveball with a lively fastball (like Roy Oswalt does,) skilled hitters are going to pick up on the rotation. He'll need to develop a solid change-up or a secondary fastball with movement to be an effective MLB pitcher, or else, he'll need to rely on luck, and that hasn't worked often.

11. Larry Greene

Personally, I was surprised to learn that Baseball America left Larry Greene out of its top 10, even despite the fact that he didn't log any professional at-bats in 2011, but I guess that is why they're the experts.

Greene was the Phillies' first selection in last summer's draft. A big, strong outfielder, he had a commitment to the University of Georgia that scared some teams away, but the Phillies were willing to pay the man and get him signed. They did.

Scouts rave about his power, which is obviously his best tool, and most predict that he'll be able to hit 30-plus home runs a season, with ease. The real question is how the rest of his bat will play in professional ball—for example, his contact, plate discipline, etc...

If he can be patient at the plate and fully develop his power, there is an obvious comparison here: Ryan Howard. Greene, however, is athletic enough to play left field, but this also means that he will have to hone his approach at the plate, cut back on strikeouts and draw the walk.

Prediction: After hitting more than 25 home runs in his first professional season, Baseball America regrets leaving Greene out of the top 10.

Simply put, the man has the power to crush a baseball. As long as he makes contact with it, it is going to go a long way. Just how far it goes, well, that's yet to be determined.

10. Maikel Franco

Maikel Franco is a name that some fans may not be familiar with, and that is completely understandable. After all, the young third baseman came out of nowhere last season to have a great year, and in doing so, sent his name flying up most prospect lists, including that of Baseball America.

In just his second professional season, Franco posted an OPS of .778 in Williamsport but struggled a bit after a short promotion to the Lakewood BlueClaws. He is a solid third baseman defensively, and offensively, he has a tremendous amount of potential. Scouts believe that he'll be able to hit for power (which will be a large factor in staying at the hot corner) and have a line-drive approach at the plate.

Just 19 years old, Franco still has a lot of room to grow, and that is why the Phillies were giddy with the progress he made in 2011, especially considering that they don't have a high-end third base prospect in the system.

Prediction: Franco has a breakout season in 2012, posting an OPS better than .800.

Most scouts are just waiting for it to happen. He has the tools to be a great hitter, and when he is at his best, he has great discipline at the plate. As long as he plays the game his way, Franco should give Phillies' fans something to look forward to in 2012.

9. Jiwan James

Jiwan James is a difficult guy to predict. Another one of those "toolsy" outfielders, the Phillies have spent a dubious amount of time converting him into an outfielder after drafting him as a pitcher, and while there has been progress at the plate, it has been minimal.

Scouts rave about his defensive ability, which is phenomenal. He has speed to burn and covers a lot of ground in center field, making it look easy. However, his bat is so far away from being MLB ready that teams passed over his potential in the Rule 5 Draft this winter. Had the Phillies believed he was any closer to the MLB, they would have protected him in the draft. After all, Shane Victorino will be a free agent following the upcoming season.

Moving forward, James is the type of player who is going to rely on finding his way onto the base paths to make things happen with his speed. That means that he'll have to better his approach at the plate and make better contact moving forward.

Prediction: The Phillies trade James in 2012.

James is the type of player that a team looking for potential would love to have. The Phillies are the type of team that can move that potential for other players and get away with it. When Ruben Amaro Jr. looks to improve his club at the trade deadline, this is a player that teams will ask about, and in my personal opinion, the Phillies shouldn't be inclined to hold on to him. James is a great player, but you wonder about how he fits into the Phils' future.

8. Brody Colvin

Brody Colvin struggled with injuries and inefficiency in 2011, and thus took a major step backwards as far as his development is concerned. Baseball America dropped him to No. 8 on its list, and while he still has potential, the concerns about his development are understandable. His innings total dropped, and he posted a FIP of 4.31 in Clearwater.

The upside is still there for Colvin, but he really didn't improve upon any part of his game in 2011. As long as his mechanics are causing injury, there is a concern that this trend continues, and until Colvin is healthy, it is unreasonable to believe that he can live up to that potential.

Prediction: Colvin places himself among the Phillies elite starting pitching prospects once again in 2012. 

Personally, I am of the belief that 2011 was more of fluke for Colvin than anything. Yes, he struggled with his mechanics, but he also had a leg issue, so I'm not entirely sure that his mechanics are the source of his injury history.

Colvin has all of the tools to be a successful starting pitcher, and the Phillies will do everything in their power this season to make sure that his mechanics are good, he is healthy, and most importantly, he is successful.

7. Justin De Fratus

Justin De Fratus earned a September call-up with the Phillies last season, but much like teammate Michael Schwimer, failed to show his true potential. De Fratus boasts a good fastball and a very good slider—a combination that has led some scouts to believe that De Fratus could be a closer on a lot of clubs.

Prediction: De Fratus makes the Phillies' roster out of spring training.

Spring training should be a great time for De Fratus to prove that he has electric stuff out of the bullpen. There could be a bit of a competition for that final bullpen spot, and should that be the case, I expect De Fratus to beat out guys like Schwimer and David Herndon.

There isn't much left for De Fratus in AAA.

6. Freddy Galvis

We've heard a lot about Freddy Galvis this winter as a possible replacement for shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Now that Rollins is back aboard for three (and likely, four) seasons, the Phillies have a few options for the young shortstop.

First and foremost, they could let him gather some playing time in AAA. While most scouts believe that Galvis can step in and play above-average defense for an MLB team right away, his bat isn't necessarily that close. He was quite impressive with the IronPigs in 2011 and showed obvious signs of improvement. However, he still posted an OPS of just .678—the second highest of his career at any given level of the organization.

The second option leads to my prediction.

Prediction: Galvis is also traded in 2012.

Now that Rollins is aboard for what is likely four more seasons, the Phillies have bought themselves time. Shortstops are in high demand across baseball, and even if he can't hit at the MLB level, there are teams that would love to have a very strong defender like Galvis, and he can help a lot of teams in that regard.

On the other hand, the Phillies would be doing nothing more than grooming him for the 2016 season, unless Rollins were to suffer a serious injury, in which case the Phillies have turned to their reserve players in the past.

With high-ceiling shortstops like Roman Quinn, Tyler Greene and Mitchell Walding on the way, the time may be opportune for the Phils to move Galvis.

5. Phillippe Aumont

Phillippe Aumont was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners, and fans can't help but to be excited about the results of his 2011 season. After failing as a starting pitcher, the Phillies moved the tall right hander to the bullpen and may have struck gold.

Aumont has a great fastball that sits comfortably in the mid 90s and a sharp curveball that has been fooling the competition. In fact, Baseball America gave him the nod for both best fastball and best curveball in the Phillies' system.

After dominating at Reading for the Phillies last season, Aumont was promoted to AAA and pitched extremely well there as well. Though his control could still be reined in a bit, Aumont's strikeout rates and sheer success have him on the fast track to the MLB. The Phils added him to the 40-man roster over the winter to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

Prediction: Aumont is dominant once again in AAA, and the Phillies reward him with a September call-up, where, should the Phillies be in that position, he is given consideration for the postseason roster.

The Phillies have enough depth in the bullpen to let Aumont spend a full season at AAA, which would be good for him. However, I don't think that it is unreasonable to believe that Aumont could be the first guy they call on should an injury occur at the back-end of the bullpen.

He'll definitely see time in Philadelphia in September, should he pitch like he did in 2011.

4. Jonathan Pettibone

Jonathan Pettibone had a fantastic year with the Clearwater Thershers in 2011, so much so that Baseball America  thought it would be justifiable to rank him fourth among Phillies' prospects heading into the 2012 season. After all, he logged more than 160 innings and posted a sub-three FIP.

However, there are a number of reasons why I find that ranking curious. First and foremost, Pettibone doesn't have overpowering stuff. He posted a strikeout rate below seven in Clearwater. That isn't to say that he isn't a great prospect, but is he a full four slots better than Brody Colvin?

What's most impressive about Pettibone is his control, which Baseball America deemed the best among Phillies' pitchers. He walked just 34 batters in 2011, good for a BB/9 rate of 1.90. He rarely surrenders the long ball and works low in the strike zone, keeping the ball on the ground.

Prediction: Pettibone has another great season in 2012, recording double digits in wins, improving upon his strikeout rate but most importantly, displaying excellent control.

There is an old baseball axiom that goes, "the best pitch in baseball is a well-placed fastball." Pettibone is living proof of that statement. His well above-average control should help him succeed in the lower levels of the system, and good mechanics are what separate he and Colvin at this point in time.

Though Colvin has a higher ceiling, it wouldn't surprise me to see Pettibone rise rapidly though the Phillies' system. He could be ready for AA Reading next season, but more time in Clearwater wouldn't hurt.

3. Sebastian Valle

Though the front office may be kicking themselves for dealing Travis d'Arnaud to the Toronto Blue Jays, they can always comfort themselves by knowing that Roy Halladay has worked out quite well for the Phillies and Sebastian Valle remains in the system as the top catching prospect and perhaps, Halladay's battery-mate of the future.

Valle has potential in all aspects of the game. He is a solid defensive catcher with room for improvement in both his defense and game-calling. He has a good arm, but it can get better. Offensively, he has a solid eye at the plate, but he could be more selective. He makes solid contact and hits for decent power but has the frame to suggest that both of those parts of his game have room to grow.

That has been the story behind Valle for years. He has a boatload of potential, and his on-the-field results make him a much better prospect than his numbers actually suggest.

Prediction: Though his numbers don't suggest much improvement in 2012, the Phillies deem that Valle is ready to take the next step, promoting him to Reading by mid-season.

There is really little reason to believe that Valle can be an above-average hitter at the MLB level. In his best seasons, which were also in the lowest levels of the Phils' system, he also posted incredibly unsustainable BABIPs.

The Phillies will focus on developing Valle's defensive game, and much like Carlos Ruiz, any offensive production will be gravy.

2. Jesse Biddle

The Phillies didn't draft Jesse Biddle in the first round of the 2010 draft simply because he was a local guy. He also has a smooth, effortless delivery and enough raw talent to make him the second-best prospect in the Phils' system.

Just 20 years old, Biddle has already made significant advances in his career, developing off-speed pitches to complement his fastball. He needs to continue reining in his control, but he took a big step forward in 2011 and should do the same again in 2012.

Unlike some of the other arms in this system, the Phillies should not feel the need to rush Biddle to the MLB. They have the luxury of waiting for him to fully develop into the crafty lefty that they had envisioned when they picked him.

Prediction: Finishing the year in Clearwater, Biddle makes significant progress in both his control and overall development of his pitches.

Biddle has a good fastball. The sooner he is able to locate the fastball effectively, the sooner he'll see a rise in the effectiveness of his off-speed pitches. If his development picks up where it left off at the end of last season, he should be able to drop his walk-rate below four and see a rise in his strikeout totals.

1. Trevor May

After promoting Domonic Brown to the MLB and trading Jarred Cosart, the door was wide open for Trevor May to become the Phillies' top prospect, and he took full advantage of that opportunity.

A big, right-handed starter, May boasts an overpowering fastball, and with a slight adjustment to his mechanics that helped further develop his off-speed pitches, he saw a rise in his control and strikeout totals. For the season, May recorded more than 200 strikeouts, and Baseball America named him the Phils' top prospect without much competition.

He'll start the 2012 season in AA Reading, and there is little evidence to believe that he will not succeed there. The opposition hit just .224 against him in his stop at Clearwater last season, and he posted a K/9 rate of 12.10. If he were to falter, it would be due to his control. He did walk 4.05 batters per nine innings in 2011.

Prediction: May dominates the AA competition through the first half of the season, forcing the Phillies to promote him to AAA, where he will strongly be considered for the MLB starting rotation in 2013.

If the Phillies had their druthers, I'm sure they would prefer to let May have a full season at AAA before promoting him, but with Joe Blanton's contract expiring and Kyle Kendrick likely to be non-tendered following the 2012 season, there will be an open spot in the rotation.

If he's ready to pitch in the MLB, why not let him at it?