New York Yankees: How a $189 Million Payroll Could Work

The New York Yankees are reportedly seeking to lower their payroll to $189 million. To most teams that seems very easy but the Yankees have a bunch of aging stars with huge contracts that will make this seemingly-simple task very difficult.

Now, the Yankees will not have to permanently stay at $189 million to save money, as the luxury tax in the new CBA punishes repeat offenders, so the Yankees payroll will waver above and below $189 million. In order to save a large amount of money the Yankees will only have to drop to the $189 million payroll threshold once of out every three years.

I will be acting as the Yankees GM and my goal will be to field a competitive lineup while trying to eventually lower the payroll to $189 million. For this article I will ignore arbitration, bench players and players getting league minimum because those figures tend to stay pretty much stable year-to-year and they are tough to predict.

Lets see how this $189 million payroll is possible.

2012 Payroll

If the New York Yankees do not make any other moves, other than re-signing their own players, between now and Opening Day their payroll will be about $200 million.

Coming Off the Books:
Jorge Posada ($13.1 million)
Damaso Marte ($3.75 million)
Alex Rodriguez's Contract depreciates by $2 million
Freddy Garcia ($1.5 million)

Going Onto the Books:
Freddy Garcia ($4 million) 
Robinson Cano's Contract appreciates by $4 million
Derek Jeter's Contract appreciates by $1 million
Rafael Soriano's Contract appreciates by $1 million
Curtis Granderson's Contract appreciates by $1.75 million
Nick Swisher's Contract appreciates by $1.15 million
Pedro Feliciano's Contract appreciates by $0.25 million

2012 Roster

1. Derek Jeter (SS)
2. Curtis Granderson (CF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
5. Mark Teixeira (1B)
6. Jesus Montero (DH)
7. Nick Swisher (RF)
8. Russell Martin (C)
9. Brett Gardner (LF)

1. CC Sabathia
2. Ivan Nova
3. Freddy Garcia
4. Phil Hughes
5. AJ Burnett
Closer: Mariano Rivera 

2012-2013 Offseason

This is the offseason that the Yankees need to take advantage of.

Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, John Danks and possibly Ervin Santana and James Shields will be the best available pitchers. David Wright, Melky Cabrera and Andre Ethier will headline the position players.

The first thing that will happen is that Mariano Rivera will retire.

Brian Cashman will then turn his attention to the rotation. Cole Hamels and Matt Cain will be the main targets but he will sign Hamels because of his experience in a hitters' park. He will be signed to a six-year, $120 million deal.

The Yankees will have to replace the departing Nick Swisher and they will do that by signing Melky Cabrera to a three-year, $42 million deal.

Russell Martin will also be signed to a three-year, $12 million extension.

2013 Payroll

If the New York Yankees make these moves their payroll should be around $216 million.

Coming Off the Books:
Mariano Rivera ($15 million)
Freddy Garcia ($4 million)
Nick Swisher ($10.25 million)
Alex Rodriguez's Contract depreciates by $1 million
Russell Martin ($4 million) 

Coming Onto the Books:
Robinson Cano's Contract appreciates by $1 million
Derek Jeter's Contract appreciates by $1 million
Rafael Soriano's Contract appreciates by $3 million
Curtis Granderson's Contract appreciates by $3 million 
Cole Hamels ($20 million)
Melky Cabrera ($14 million)
Russell Martin ($4 million) 

2013 Roster

1. Brett Gardner (LF)
2. Curtis Granderson (CF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Jesus Montero (DH)
5. Mark Teixeira (1B)
6. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
7. Melky Cabrera (RF)
8. Russell Martin (C)
9. Derek Jeter (SS)

1. CC Sabathia
2. Cole Hamels
3. Ivan Nova
4. Manny Banuelos
5. Dellin Betances
Closer: David Robertson

2013-2014 Offseason

The Yankees will first lock up Robinson Cano to a huge six-year, $126 million deal.

After that the Yankees will re-sign Curtis Granderson to a new contract. Granderson will be looking for a Jose Reyes-type deal and the Yankees will give it to him. He will be signed to a five-year, $90 million deal.

2014 Payroll

If the New York Yankees make these moves their payroll should be around $177 million.

Coming Off the Books:
AJ Burnett ($16.5 million)
Rafael Soriano ($14 million)
Robinson Cano ($14 million)
Curtis Granderson ($13 million)
Derek Jeter ($17 million)
Alex Rodriguez's Contract depreciates by $3 million 

Coming Onto the Books:
Robinson Cano ($21 million)
Curtis Granderson ($18 milion)

2014 Roster

1. Brett Gardner (LF)
2. Curtis Granderson (CF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Jesus Montero (DH)
5. Mark Teixeira (1B)
6. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
7. Melky Cabrera (RF) 
8. Russell Martin (C)
9. Cito Culver (SS)

1. CC Sabathia
2. Cole Hamels
3. Ivan Nova
4. Manny Banuelos
5. Dellin Betances
Closer: David Robertson

2014-2015 Offseason

Dellin Betances will not be successful in the Yankees rotation (think Phil Hughes), and he will be forced to the bullpen. To replace him the Yankees will land the player every Yankees fan has wanted since 2010: Felix Hernandez. Do you really think the Mariners will be able to re-sign him? They may have the money but I think he is tired of putting up incredible numbers and finishing with a record at or below .500. If King Felix hits the open market Brian Cashman and the Yankees will be scrambling to put him in pinstripes.

It will take the same seven-year, $161 million contract they gave CC Sabathia, minus the opt-out clause, but it will be worth it because Felix Hernandez is a true ace.

David Robertson will become a free agent and the Yankees will want to re-sign their closer. He will get a four-year, $44 million deal.

2015 Payroll

If the New York Yankees make these moves their payroll should be around $212 million.

Coming Off the Books:
Alex Rodriguez's Contract depreciates by $4 million

Coming Onto the Books:
Felix Hernandez ($23 million)
David Robertson ($12 million) 

2015 Roster

1. Mason Williams (CF)
2. Curtis Granderson (LF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Jesus Montero (DH)
5. Mark Teixeira (1B)
6. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
7. Melky Cabrera (RF)
8. Gary Sanchez (C)
9. Cito Culver (SS)

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cole Hamels
3. CC Sabathia
4. Manny Banuelos
5. Ivan Nova
Closer: David Robertson 

2015-2016 Offseason

The New York Yankees have a strong roster and will not make any major moves this offseason.

2016 Payroll

If the New York Yankees make these moves their payroll should be around $189 million.

Coming Off the Books:
Russell Martin ($4 million)
Alex Rodriguez's Contract depreciates by $1 million
Melky Cabrera ($14 million) 

2016 Roster

1. Mason Williams (CF)
2. Curtis Granderson (LF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Jesus Montero (RF)
5. Mark Teixeira (1B)
6. Gary Sanchez (C)
7. Alex Rodriguez (DH)
8. Dante Bichette, Jr (3B)
9. Cito Culver (SS)

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cole Hamels
3. CC Sabathia
4. Manny Banuelos
5. Ivan Nova
Closer: David Robertson

2016-2017 Offseason

Ivan Nova will be up for a new contract and the Yankees will give him one. It is difficult to know how much Nova will be worth because we have only seen him for one season but he was impressive so he will probably earn himself a five-year, $80 million deal.

Cameron Maybin will become a free agent after 2016 if the Padres do not extend his contract, which I doubt they will. If he hits free agency the Yankees will be interested and will give the 28-year-old a five-year, $70 million deal.

2017 Payroll

If the New York Yankees make these moves their payroll should be around $196 million.

Coming Off the Books:
Mark Teixeira ($23.125 million)

Coming Onto the Books:
CC Sabathia's Contract appreciates by $2 million
Cameron Maybin ($14 million) 

2017 Roster

1. Mason Williams (CF)
2. Curtis Granderson (LF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Jesus Montero (1B)
5. Gary Sanchez (C)
6. Cameron Maybin (RF)
7. Dante Bichette, Jr (3B)
8. Alex Rodriguez (DH)
9. Cito Culver (SS)

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cole Hamels
3. Manny Banuelos
4. Ivan Nova
5. CC Sabathia
Closer: David Robertson

2017-2018 Offseason

Jesus Montero will become a free agent and the Yankees will look to lock him up long-term. How good will he be? It's hard to tell but if he keeps up his 2011 pace and fulfills his potential of a Miguel Cabrera-type player he will be worth top dollar.

Expect a seven-year $154 million dollar deal.

The Yankees will need to find a DH and a fifth starter for 2018. The DH position will likely be filled up by a rotation of Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Jesus Montero. The Yankees will sign an aging veteran, a Josh Willingham type player, to fill the hole for the rest of the game. I do not know who that will be but a 36-year-old Andre Ethier would fit the bill. He would get a one-year deal for $10 million.

Dellin Betances will be given another chance in the rotation after a few very good seasons in the bullpen.

2018 Payroll

If the New York Yankees make these moves their payroll should be around $182 million.

Coming Off the Books:
Alex Rodriguez ($21 million)
CC Sabathia ($25 million)

Coming Onto the Books:
Jesus Montero ($22 million)
Andre Ethier ($10 million) 

2018 Roster

1. Mason Williams (CF)
2. Curtis Granderson (LF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Jesus Montero (1B)
5. Gary Sanchez (C)
6. Cameron Maybin (RF)
7. Dante Bichette, Jr (3B)
8. Andre Ethier (DH)
9. Cito Culver (SS)

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cole Hamels
3. Manny Banuelos
4. Ivan Nova
5. Dellin Betances
Closer: David Robertson

Money

Whether we like it or not baseball is a business and this new payroll system will be favored by the Steinbrenners. Their goal is to make money, which normally overlaps with success, but a lower payroll is their main goal. Compared to a $210 million payroll every year this projection would save the New York Yankees quite a bit of money.

Payroll By Year:

2012: $200 Million
2013: $216 Million
2014: $177 Million
2015: $212 Million
2016: $188 Million
2017: $196 Million
2018: $182 Million

Savings By Year (CBA and Payroll):

2012: $15 Million
2013: -$9 Million
2014: $60 Million
2015: $1.2 Million
2016: $62 Million
2017: $21.6 Million
2018: $65 Million
Total: $215.8 Million