Predicting Gerrit Cole, Yankees Rotation and Lineups for Wild Card vs. Red Sox

Though nothing is set in stone yet, all signs continue to point toward the New York Yankees hosting the Boston Red Sox in the wild card round of Major League Baseball's postseason for a second consecutive year.

Sure, if the Yankees sweep the four-game set at home against Tampa Bay that begins next Tuesday, they could still win the AL East and avoid playing in the wild card round at all. It's also possible (though extremely unlikely) that Boston collapses so drastically down the stretch that it ends up either as the No. 6 seed or outside the postseason picture altogether.

As of Sunday morning, though, FanDuel had the Yankees at -1100 to earn the AL's No. 4 seed, while Boston appears so locked into the AL's No. 5 seed that it's the only one of the 12 postseason spots on which FanDuel is no longer taking action.

A bracket featuring 4. NYY vs. 5. BOS is so inevitable at this point that we're ready to start projecting the roster that the Yankees will bring into that no-love-lost clash.

Before we can do that, however, how healthy are the Bronx Bombers?

Injury Updates of Note

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2B Jazz Chisholm Jr. suffered a sprained right thumb in the middle of last week, landing on the IL on Thursday. Bryan Hoch reported that Chisholm "expects to play before the end of the regular season," hoping to return for the season-ending seven-game homestand.

CF Trent Grisham is recovering from a Grade 2 hamstring strain suffered on Sept. 4. Per Yankees beat writer Gary Phillips, manager Aaron Boone said on Sunday it's possible Grisham could return by the end of the regular season, "but he doesn't have a clear timeline yet."

DH Giancarlo Stanton is still hitting in his months-long recovery, but a return to the lineup is nowhere near imminent. He reaggravated his initial right calf injury in June and then injured the left calf when he fell running the bases in August. When the latter occurred, it rather felt like the final straw and that we won't see him again until 2027.

RHP Clarke Schmidt has made five appearances in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, nearing a return to the big leagues as a reliever. Schmidt has struck out 11 of the 26 batters he has faced and could be quite the eleventh-hour solution to the Yankees' eighth inning woes. (4.74 ERA against in the eighth compared to a sub-3.00 ERA in the fifth, sixth, seventh and ninth innings.)

LHP Ryan Weathers has been out for three weeks with a flexor strain in his throwing arm. He has been throwing long toss, though, and they hope to get him throwing off a mound in the coming days. Along with Schmidt, he, too, could factor into the bullpen mix in October.

Yankees Projected Starting Lineups vs. Boston

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Order	G1 vs. Sonny Gray	G2 vs. Ranger Suarez	G3 vs. Bennett/Tolle
1	DH Ben Rice	1B Paul Goldschmidt	1B Paul Goldschmidt
2	RF Aaron Judge	LF Cody Bellinger	LF Cody Bellinger
3	LF Cody Bellinger	RF Aaron Judge	RF Aaron Judge
4	1B Luis Garcia Jr.	DH Ben Rice	DH Ben Rice
5	2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
6	CF Spencer Jones	CF Spencer Jones	CF Spencer Jones
7	SS George Lombard Jr.	3B Ryan McMahon	SS George Lombard Jr.
8	3B Ryan McMahon	SS Jose Caballero	3B Jose Caballero
9	C Austin Wells	C Austin Wells	C Austin Wells

Provided Chisholm is healthy, the only real question is which direction the Yankees opt to go with the left half of their infield—and whether Anthony Volpe factors into the mix at all.

We can pretty well assume it'll be Goldschmidt leading off against Boston's southpaws, but definitely not starting against Sonny Gray, against whom he is 1-for-26 in his career. Garcia (4-for-10 with one HR off Gray) should be in the cleanup spot for that one and the primary pinch hitter for the other two games.

We can also pretty well assume that Judge and Bellinger will be at Nos. 2 and 3 in the order, even though Judge is just 3-for-17 with nine strikeouts and no extra-base hits since his return from the IL.

McMahon has not hit well at all against lefties this season, but he does have solid career numbers against Suarez (6-for-16 with one home run). If he only starts one game in the series, it might be that one.

Amed Rosario could be an intriguing option in either of the first two games. He is 7-for-24 (.292) in his career against Gray, as well as 5-for-15 (.333) with two home runs and no strikeouts against Suarez. Maybe Boone starts him and saves McMahon as a pinch hitter instead of the other way around.

Yankees Projected Starting Rotation vs. Boston

Game 1: RHP Cam Schlittler

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Indisputable. Not only is he the frontrunner for AL Cy Young and a plausible candidate for AL MVP, but he has eviscerated the Red Sox thus far in his young career. New York will be hoping for a repeat of his 8.0 IP, 0 R, 12 K masterpiece from Game 3 of last year's wild card series.

Game 2: LHP Max Fried

If he's physically good to go for up to 100 pitches, this one also should be relatively indisputable. Since signing with the Yankees, Fried has made six starts (including Game 1 last year) against Boston, owning the Red Sox to the tune of a 1.24 ERA and a 10.2 K/9.

Game 3 (if necessary): LHP Carlos Rodón

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Let the talking heads debate begin!

Gerrit Cole is one of the highest-paid pitchers on the planet, and he hasn't missed a single turn through the rotation since making his season debut in late May.

However, he has been getting shelled as of late, allowing seven home runs over his last two starts, saddled with a 6.48 ERA (and a 7.30 FIP) thus far in September.

Even if you're inclined to disregard that recent rough patch and just ride with the 2023 Cy Young winner in a do-or-die situation, there's also this:

Gerrit Cole vs. Boston (regular seasons 2021-26): 75.0 IP, 6.36 ERA
Gerrit Cole vs. Boston (postseason career): 8.0 IP, 7.88 ERA

Gerrit Cole vs. Not-Boston (regular seasons 2021-26): 726.1 IP, 2.90 ERA
Gerrit Cole vs. Not-Boston (postseason career): 125.1 IP, 2.44 ERA

Schlittler and Fried have owned the Red Sox, but Boston has had Cole's number since long before his recent schneid began.

The dream scenario, of course, is that there is no Game 3 and that Cole instead toes the rubber in Game 1 of the ALDS in Tampa Bay—against whom he has made four career postseason starts with a 1.66 ERA.

If there is a Game 3, though, Rodón and his 2.25 ERA over the past month should be the way to go.

If Boone has the courage to go that route and the Yankees get eliminated without Cole ever throwing a pitch in three games, surely the responses will be calm, cool and collected, right?