Why the San Francisco 49ers Stink in the Red Zone

The 49ers had a bad loss in Week 14 to the Arizona Cardinals, and we can point fingers to a number of different factors that contributed to the loss. 

First of all, any good team should be able to get a single yard on the final drive, especially with two cracks at it.  Also, the team possibly had a letdown because San Francisco clinched the division against the St. Louis Rams in Week 13.   And, as we have seen most of this year, the Achilles heel of the 49ers’ defense is that they are susceptible to the big play.  Larry Fitzgerald is very good a producing big plays.

However, despite these other factors, a glaring weakness of the offense was exposed against the Cardinals: they stink in the red zone. 

In the first three trips into the red zone, the 49ers got three field goals.  On the other possession deep into Arizona territory, they kicked the field goal from the 28.  According to Gregg Rosenthal at ProFootballTalk.com, the 49ers are 3-of-13 in scoring touchdowns in the red zone since the start of November.  In addition, they do not have a red-zone touchdown at all in December.

But why?  Let’s break down all the components of the offense to try to get to the bottom of the issue.

Offensive Line

Although the offensive line has been somewhat porous since Thanksgiving night against the Baltimore Ravens, they have not given up a lot of sacks in the red zone this year. 

In addition, the offensive line is a pretty good run-blocking unit that ranks seventh in the league. 

But since defenses tend to stack the middle against the 49ers, the condensed field in the red zone creates more bodies in the box than there are men to block them.  Because the faster defenders are closer to the line of scrimmage in goal-line situations, it is harder to run outside.

Running Backs

Frank Gore is a great interior runner, and Kendall Hunter is great on the edge.  However, with the way that defenses are playing the 49ers in the red zone, the offensive line is too often outnumbered. 

The offense needs to incorporate more creativity with the running backs. 

One issue is the Niners do not seem to utilize the fullback very often in red zone passing.  If they do not trust Bruce Miller, Moran Norris or even Isaac Sopoaga to catch the ball, Harbaugh needs to fix the problem. 

It would be nice to see both Hunter and Gore in the backfield in pro sets either under center or in the shotgun to have the dual threat of outside and inside rushing. 

Tight Ends

This part of the puzzle is almost inexplicable.  They have a Pro Bowl tight end in Vernon Davis and can’t seem to find him in the red zone. 

The biggest issue often seems to be that they are not targeting him as the primary receiver in the red zone. 

Davis does have five touchdowns on the year and Delanie Walker has three, but this is not enough production out of the position. It is fair to note that opposing teams know how good Davis is, as he is often double-covered in the end zone, but there needs to be more creativity in the way the 49ers use the tight end.

Wide Receivers

I noticed something watching the Arizona Cardinals on offense in Week 14: most of their receivers are really big. 

Watch the replay of Rob Gronkowski setting the single-season touchdown record for tight ends, and you would see that none of the 49er receiving corps could make that catch because they are not tall enough. 

The tallest receiver the 49ers have is Braylon Edwards at 6’3” and he has been hurt much of the year.  The rest of the crew comes in as follows: Michael Crabtree 6’1”, Ted Ginn 5’11”, Kyle Williams 5’10” and Brett Swain 6’0”. The tallest tight end is Vernon Davis at 6’3” and he is often double covered. 

One of the big keys to red-zone success is having receivers that can jump, lunge and stretch for the ball in the end zone.  Most of the 49ers receivers are just not significantly taller than the defenders they play against and are not winning the battle for the ball.

Quarterback

Alex Smith has been very good at avoiding sacks and not turning the ball over in general this year, and he is especially good at it in the red zone. 

However, he is nothing special when it comes to making plays, either. 

It is apparent that he has been coached to play very conservatively near the goal line in order to be certain of the field goal.  Colin Kaepernick must be awful in practice because the 49ers almost never run a quarterback draw or run/pass option near the end zone.  It is clear that they cannot afford to get Smith hurt.

In order to win in the playoffs, Smith is going to have to take some risks in order to get more touchdowns. 

It won’t take a significant amount of risks to up the production. Remember, just one more touchdown in the red zone would have changed the outcome against the Cardinals.

Coaching

Jim Harbaugh refuses to take the training wheels off Alex Smith in the red zone.  The coaching staff seems so afraid to lose points via turnover that they are content run up the middle or just send two receivers out. 

This philosophy leads to a lot of field goals. 

It is possible that Harbaugh, now that the NFC West is clinched, wants to have a vanilla red-zone package in the last four games so the playoff opponent won’t see all their plays, but this seems like a stretch. 

The red-zone offense against the Cardinals was reminiscent of Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys when Harbaugh would not take points off the board to have a chance to put the game away. 

Either he trusts his defense too much or he doesn’t trust his quarterback, and it could become a problem come playoff time.

Conclusion

Like many issues on the football field, the 49ers' red-zone problems do not have a single answer. 

However, the biggest combination of factors is lacking an above-average quarterback and a small receiving corps. 

Because of these two factors, the coaching staff cannot trust the offense to pass the ball consistently in the red zone.  This leads to conservative play-calling and defenses taking away the running game to force Smith to beat them. 

This problem has a solution, but it will require the coaching staff to be more aggressive and creative with the play-calling.  Also, they have to be OK with Smith screwing up occasionally. At times, the 49ers have shown they can be creative with the play-calling, but they will have to be more aggressive and execute better to win against playoff-caliber defenses.