2011 MLB Free Agents: Determining Jimmy Rollins' Value on the Market

Determining the open market for a baseball player can be difficult and very ambiguous. It is even more so for a shortstop with more tools than most because of the scarcity of the position.

In the following presentation, we look at a breakdown of each aspect of Rollins' game and assign a monetary value to it, as dictated by the market.

We will cover everything from hitting, base running, fielding, intangibles, signing him away from the Phillies and contract length.

Value Offensively, as a Hitter

Jimmy Rollins was about as average of an offensive player as you could find for the 2011 season. Using Rbat, a stat developed by Sean Smith which measures a player's value by expressing how many above or below average numbers the player produced, Rollins produced an Rbat of zero, meaning he was very average on offense.

Just to be sure the statistic is logical, let’s use the eye test of his stats to confirm:

2011: .268 AVG/.338 OBP/.399 SLUG, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 87 RUNS

That seems pretty average for a big league hitter.

Looking at the two years prior to 2011, he was a combined 23 runs below average.

At this stage in his career, it appears that being an average hitter is probably his peak. To put a value on this output is tricky, given the scarcity of average hitters at the shortstop position. Shortstops tend to either be below-average hitters, or very talented hitters. It’s actually quite rare to find a mediocre hitter.

Here are two shortstops that hit the market coming off seasons that were hovering around mediocre. One was slightly below, one was slightly above:

Player A: .264 AVG/.306 OBP/.383 SLUG, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 74 RUNS

Player B: .287 AVG/.327 OBP/.401 SLUG, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 84 RUNS

Player A received roughly $8 million annually and Player B received roughly $10 million annually.

But we can't move forward with his offensive value until we factor in his baserunning...

Value Offensively, as a Base Runner

Player A and Player B were Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria in 2004, respectively. Their baserunning abilities are similar to Rollins’, but probably slightly less than his current output.

But how long can he maintain that ability as he ages?

Rollins has a short history of leg problems (really only be in play for the past two seasons), but we have some other indications that his running game will severely slow down in the future.

As a model, consider Tim Raines, who had a similar build as Rollins does. The Rock stole 45 bases at the age of 32. From age 33 through the end of his career, however, Raines would only average 14 swipes per season. From age 33 to 37, only 22. It may not completely shut down, but there’s a decent shot it will decline.

We've already witnessed his ability to stretch a double into a triple slow down. His triples have declined in each of the past five seasons and he has a total of 10 triples over the past three seasons.

Rollins also does not bust it down the line, likely to keep his legs fresh and healthy.

All things considered, we go to the numbers…

With Rollins being an average hitter at his peak, we’ll assign him a value of the lower-end average hitter, Player A. Throw in Rollins’ extra abilities on the base paths and we’ll bump it up an extra million as we are unsure of how much value Rollins still has as a base stealer and an overall base runner. That makes his offensive game, playing as a shortstop, at $9 million.

Offensive total: $9 million

Value Defensively

Assessing his defensive value at shortstop is a lot easier than as a base runner. This is in large part due to the ability to project longevity at the position.

Omar Vizquel, at age 40, produced an astonishing Rfield (the in-the-field equivalent of Rbat) value of 23. Again, that’s at age 40.

There is no doubt that Vizquel was much flashier with the glove than Rollins, but looking closely at his overall value, the item we are determining to assign a fair salary, the two shortstops share similar value in the field.

From age 28-32, Vizquel’s average Rfield per season was 5.0. From age 28-32, Rollins’ Rfield was also 5.0.

But Vizquel’s fielding was the majority of his game, as he was not much of a hitter, so his salary is a good one to consider for the value of a shortstop’s defense that is comparable to Rollins.

From age 33-37, Vizquel averaged $4.4 million annually. Now since defense was nearly the majority of his value, let’s attribute about 60 percent of his value to his defense. That makes his defense worth somewhere between $2.5-$3 million.

While defense seems to always be underrated when being represented in a contract, it is the reality of the market. And what we are looking for is what the market dictates as Rollins’ price.

Defensive value: $2.75 million

Running total: $11.75 million

Value of Intangibles, Signing Him Away from Philly, Other Costs

This is where things get interesting, determining the value of Rollins’ intangibles.

There is no doubt that Rollins over the years has brought a unique personality and type of leadership to the Phillies and city of Philadelphia.

It is similar to the Derek Jeter “icon of New York” argument.

But truth is, as I previously pointed out, Rollins’ intangibles value really only exists in Philadelphia. He is not a player that will help in the marketing aspect in that he will sell tickets.

Think of Derek Jeter playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates for a moment; Not quite the same value as him being the captain of a team littered with All-Stars playing in New York. Same goes for Jimmy Rollins playing in Philadelphia.

So in a sense, he needs the Phillies as much as they need him.

Still, he does deserve some type of financial acknowledgement for what he has accomplished in Philadelphia over the years. Just not a whole lot.

And consider that he likely needs to be convinced to leave the Phillies; there will be an extra cost for other teams to pry him away. Because of this, there is an additional cost for teams besides Philadelphia.

To be conservative, we’ll set this price at $750,000 annually.

Running total: $12.5 million

Contract Length

As for contract length, Jimmy Rollins has openly made it known that he is seeking a five-year deal.

There really is no indication that five years is the appropriate length in the shortstop market for a 33-year-old player.

Jose Reyes did get six years, but he is 28. He also is coming off a batting title and at this point is a more talented player than Rollins.

Don’t even consider A-Rod’s 10-year deal. We cannot consider Troy Tulowitzki’s deal either, because that was given to him while he was under contract to keep him off the market in the (distant) future.

Aside from Reyes and A-Rod, there is no history of a shortstop on the open market getting more than four guaranteed years in a contract.

Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo and Orlando Cabrera all received four-year deals at ages younger than Rollins.

For the teams that signed these players, the production they received in the final season made them regret guaranteeing the fourth year. None of these however, came after 2006.

Alex Gonzalez, Omar Vizquel and  Rafael Furcal twice got three-year deals. Only Vizquel was older than Rollins at the time he signed.

For the most part, they all lived up to their contract as far as expected production goes.

Three years seems to be the fair market value. Four years guaranteed to a shortstop in his early to mid 30s has happened, but the trend has since stopped. Five years has never happened.

Fair market value on length: Three years, with a team or vesting option for a fourth.

The vesting option can simply be accumulated by the number of at-bats in his third season, or maybe the average at-bats he has to meet for the life of the contract. You figure that if he continues to be in the lineup, he is not completely incompetent with the bat.

The Fair Contract, Determined by the Market

So give or take a million or two, we now have Jimmy Rollins’ fair value as dictated on the open market:

Three years, $37.5 million, with either a team or vesting option for a fourth year.