State of the Seattle Mariners: Spring 2008

The 2008 Seattle Mariners will look a bit different from last year's squad.

Obviously the big move of the off-season was signing Miguel Cairo—oh wait, there is this Erik Bedard guy, too...

The Bedard trade has been widely criticized by many and while I love adding him to the pitching staff, M's GM Bill Bavasi gave up WAY too much talent.

Adam Jones had to go in any blockbuster pitching deal, and while that sucks, I had come to terms with that. George Sherrill was solid relief help and while lefty relievers are all over the place, he is probably one of the top five in baseball. I'm still okay with the trade at this point though.

Then Bavasi goes nuts and gives up Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler—three young pitchers with plenty of upside. If ONE of those guys was added to the trade, I'd say "fair deal" for both teams. All THREE was highway robbery and it's where I part ways with Bill in pulling the trigger. 

Bavasi says sometimes you have to give up a lot to get a lot. Well, now I can count all the "MLB caliber" pitchers in the M's farm system on one hand. Those are three guys he gave up that anyone who follows the M's minor league system knows are the top line guys. If Bavasi wasn't so high on Brandon Morrow (who is good in relief, but unknown as a starter), it probably could have been a three-for-one deal instead of what it turned into. All I have to say is good player acquired, horrible exchange rate.

The good news is this trade will make the team better this year and most likely next as well. But even if Bedard signs an extension, the minor leaguers who'd be taking over for the likes of Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn won't be there (unless Morrow can be as good as they think he can and Aumont's ready). Big question marks.

There's no doubt that we need pitchers badly once the June draft rolls around. I just hope there's good enough arms in the college ranks that can quickly fill the void of the three we lost (or perhaps a couple international signings). If not, this move could cripple the team long after Bavasi is gone (thus possibly not showing up in the win-loss column until 2010).

Going into the spring however, I am optimistic about the team's chances. It's still hard not to consider the Angels to be the favorites because their rotation is deeper and their bullpen is probably a tick better overall than the M's pen. The A's have no offense, but decent enough pitching to hang around, while Texas is probably still a few starting pitchers away from making a serious pennant run.

The offense for the M's should be ok, but definitely hurt from the loss of Jones. If management thought they could get Bedard, why on earth not try and re-sign Jose Guillen? Was the steroid/HGH thing really that big a deal? I just don't get it. I think Wilkerson should be ok, but I would love to see a platoon between him and Balentien. If Balentien becomes a solid regular, maybe Ibanez could move to DH with either "Wilk" or Balentien moving to LF and Vidro could move to the bench. I don't think Vidro's as bad as many bloggers out there do, but he bats a really empty .300 and you don't have to be a blogger to see how atrocious of an outfielder Ibanez is. The bench isn't much to shake a stick at unless the team gets creative and keeps Morse and Balentien (or even Jimerson) or does something unfathomable and makes Jeff Clement the backup catcher and everday DH (which is me dreaming, but you can't blame a guy for trying). That combination has me excited about the bench more than Cairo (who is basically Bloomquist without the speed or ability to play the outfield), Bloomquist, Burke and Norton does. Honestly, how many 1b/3b/corner OF guys do we need to bring in before handing the job to Morse. The guy has earned it and appears to be a nice guy to boot. Unless he completely craps the bed in spring, the job should be his.

Starting pitching has gone from mediocre (or even bad) to very good with Bedard, Felix and even Silva is an upgrade over Weaver/Ramirez. If Batista can harness whatever magic he found last year and bring it with him this year, that's a very solid starting 4 with Washburn being the odd man out (which honestly isn't too bad seeing that he usually only goes 5-6 innings anyway). If Batista isn't as good as last year and Washburn keeps the status quo (or worse one of the other starters goes down)... Houston we have a problem, and I don't see anyone with the possible exception of Rohrbaugh able to fill-in right away (because Ramirez sucks and Baek is only slightly better). So please Felix and Erik STAY HEALTHY!!

The bullpen should be pretty decent, but not as good as last year with the loss of Sherrill. Putz will probably come down to Earth slightly, but still be a solid closer. Assuming Morrow is in the pen again, he should be alright. Rowland-Smith strikes me as a guy who could replace Sherrill, with O'Flaherty as a nice compliment. Sean Green will also setup and one of either Huber, Baek or Ramirez takes the long role. The big question for me is, is Lowe healthy and if he is, can he pitch even close to what he was like in 2006? If the answer is yes, then this bullpen will be strength. If not, it will still be pretty good, but there will be holes in the setup corps. There's also an outside shot of Arthur Rhodes making the team, but after a season-long absence, I doubt it will happen.

My overall assessment of the team to me seems like they will post a similar record as last year. Anywhere from 83-90 wins seems plausible and if any of the hitters has a career year (especially the Beltre's, Ibanez's or yes even Sexson) it could push this team into the playoffs. But if there are any more offensive meltdowns and one of the starting pitchers goes down (especially Bedard or Felix), the team's win total will probably be in the 70 range. It's spring, so let's be positive and listen to countless stories about how people are in the best shape of their lives after working out all off-season with "insert big name player's trainer here". Go Mariners!