Colts vs. Patriots: Breaking Down the Matchups in Week 13 AFC Contest

Bill Belichick has had a difficult time selling the New England media on reasons not to overlook an 0-11 Indianapolis Colts team.

But the heart of his argument is solid: All that matters is how those players perform on Sunday, and Belichick reminded us that there are a lot of talented players on the Colts' roster.

"You don't think you can gauge a team based on how a player blocks Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis?," asked Belichick. "Who else would you gauge it against? Are you kidding me? Covering Reggie Wayne and [Austin] Collie and [Pierre] Garcon - you don't think you can gauge your coverage based on those players?"

That's all well and good, and those matchups will be important in the game, but in order to win, the Colts will have to win a lot of those matchups. How does it break down across the board?

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikFrenz.

Patriots Passing Game vs. Colts Pass Defense

If the Colts have one shot to slow down the Patriots offense, it lies in the hands of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

The two edge rushers have combined for 57 percent of Indy's quarterback disruptions (pressures, hits and sacks) on the season, as well as 11 of 18 sacks.

There are ways to scheme those guys out of the game, ranging from extra blockers to screen passes in their direction.

Quite frankly, the Colts don't have the personnel across the board to slow down New England's offense.

Their defensive backs don't match up against New England's receivers, and the linebackers really don't match up against the tight ends.

In a nutshell, the Colts' defensive passer rating is a league-worst 108.6. Tom Brady's passer rating currently sits at 105.1. It's not hard to see where the advantage lies here.

Advantage: Patriots

Patriots Running Game vs. Colts Run Defense

On the whole, the Colts run defense has been one of the worst in the league.

Teams have run against them more often than any other team in the NFL, and the Colts have given up the second-most touchdowns (15) and yards (1,657).

The Patriots, on the other hand, are right around the middle of the pack with a serviceable running game.

Although their running game won't win games on its own, it can complement the pass attack.

The Patriots have struggled running the ball in recent weeks, but something tells me that teams have been running on the Colts for a reason—they're weak against it, just as they always have been.

This could be just the situation New England's backfield needs to get back on track.

Advantage: Patriots

Colts Passing Game vs. Patriots Pass Defense

This matchup is the hardest one to get a read on, if only because we've seen so little from Dan Orlovsky.

Still, what we have seen from him hasn't been very good.

Anyone remember him running out of the back of the end zone in 2008 with the Detroit Lions?

For that, he has earned the nickname "O-16rlovsky."

Still, the Colts have some solid skill position players on offense. With Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie at receiver, the Colts may have some opportunities against the Patriots' backup-laden secondary.

The Colts offense has struggled this season, but it has done so with Curtis Painter at the helm.

We can't forget that the Patriots still rank very poorly in pass defense, specifically with an 84.18 defensive passer rating that puts them at 19th in the NFL.

But the pass defense has been improving lately, despite getting it done against some lesser competition. I would put the Colts in that category.

Advantage: Patriots

Colts Running Game vs. Patriots Run Defense

Again, not a lot of hope here for the Colts.

They rank 13th in yards per rush attempt with 4.4, but it hasn't mattered.

They've played from behind so much that they've rushed less than any other team in the league, as they've been too busy playing catch-up through the air.

The fact is, though, they've only gained 51 first downs on the ground. Clearly, the running game is not a  threat in Indy whether or not Peyton Manning is throwing the ball.

The Patriots have played rather well against the run on the whole, but that is also due to teams throwing the ball a lot more to keep up with them.

They allow 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 20th in the league.

History shows that even teams that run well against New England have done so in losing situations. Three of the four teams that have eclipsed 100 yards rushing against the Patriots have lost the game.

This is indicative that those rushing yards are empty and have little impact on the game.

Advantage: Patriots

Special Teams

The Patriots have made just one explosive play in the return game all year, and it came on a punt return from Julian Edelman against the Chiefs.

That's still one more explosive play than the Colts have made on special teams in 2011.

It has gone largely unnoticed, though, that Pat McAfee is having a career year at punter.

That being said, a career year for him still consists of only a 47.3 average yards per punt, with 15 punts landing inside the 20.

Zoltan Mesko has been right around that same ball park, with 46.8 yards per punt and 13 landing inside the 20.

In the absence of Peyton Manning, we will still get to see the showdown of Adam Vinatieri and his replacement, Stephen Gostkowski.

The two are actually right around the same percentage, with Gostkowski edging out Vinatieri by a narrow margin of just 82.6 percent to 81.3.

It's just too close to call.

Advantage: Wash

Coaching

A good coach wouldn't let the loss of one player—even if that player's name is Peyton Manning—result in an 0-11 start to the season.

Needless to say, Bill Belichick is a good coach. End debate.

Advantage: Patriots

Patriots' Key to Success

No stupid mistakes

If there is a game plan that allows the Colts to win, it has to involve the Patriots making multiple mistakes and missing opportunities throughout the game.

The Colts have hung around in every game, and the last thing they need is a gifted way to stay in it.

The best thing this offense can do is just remain fundamentally sound—which has been easier said than done at times this year, as the Patriots started out as one of the top five teams in penalties this season and also turned it over far more often than we're used to seeing.

Still, they have done a great job of minimizing turnovers and penalties over the past few weeks, and if that continues, this game should be a breeze.

Colts' Key to Success

No stupid mistakes

This is not a copout.

If there's a game plan for the Colts to win, it's not making stupid mistakes.

Or at least not as many as the Patriots make.

Most teams that have beaten the Patriots this season and for many years have been teams that win the turnover battle.

The Colts have been hanging around in all of their games and have committed the fewest penalties in the league with just 56 through 11 games.

Still, their inability to possess the ball (21 turnovers, 32.4 percent conversions on third downs) will ultimately do them in.

Conclusion

There is absolutely no reason to think that this won't be a blowout.

The Patriots defense has been making mincemeat of less talented offenses for the past few weeks, while the offense has continued to improve as Brady's elbow has healed.

All signs points to another Patriots win.

Patriots 38, Colts 6

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikFrenz.