Los Angeles Angels: Top Prospects (25-21)

Scott AllenNov 28, 2011

Just about every site on the Internet produces a Top Prospect list.

So many are produced that fans can never be sure who is right and who is wrong when it comes to evaluating players. Baseball America may say something completely different than Baseball Prospectus, which is in contrast to John Sickels who agrees with Jonathan Mayo who disagrees with FanGraphs but agrees with ESPN.

Relying on large sites to get accurate information on Angels prospects often can be a confusing experience.

They use knowledgeable scouts who may see a player once, but are forced to give a report on them for the sake of time because they need to fly across the country to see another player in five hours. They don't have the time or the resources to focus on players the way team-specific sites do.

It's sort of like going to a gas station to buy a bottle of wine; they might have one there, but the quality won't be as nice as one you could get from a winery in Napa Valley.

It is for this reason that Bleacher Report has teamed up with LA Angels Insider and Garrett Wilson, editor at monkeywithahalo.com, to provide you, the fan, with the most in-depth prospect report on the planet.

According to the agreement, podcasts can be found at laangelsinsider.com; reports including video will be made available first at monkeywithahalo.com. Suffice it to say, if you don't find it on this report, you won't find it anywhere else.

Such detail comes at a price though, there's no way any fan could digest so much information at once, so Bleacher Report will divide the Top 30 Prospect Report into a six-part series. This is part two of the six-part series.

25. LHP Max Russell

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Position: Starting Pitcher Level: Split the season between Low-A and High-A
Bats: Left Throws: Left Height: 6'2" Weight: 210 lbs.
Age: 23 Born: Sept. 21, 1988

2011 Season Stats (Low-A): 5-10, 114.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 101 H, 14 HR, 45 BB, 85 K, 4.67 FIP, .264 BABIP, 1.54 GO/AO

2011 Season Stats (High-A): 1-2, 41.0 IP, 4.17 ERA, 42 H, 4 HR, 8 BB, 34 K, 3.61 FIP, .308 BABIP, 1.28 GO/AO

Fastball: B. He sits at 90-91 and spots it, generating ground balls and sets up his curve.

Breaking Ball: B. Curveball that is hard to make solid contact because he keeps it low and spots it where he wants.

Change-up: B. The true mark of a polished starter, he can throw it in any count.

Performance: B. Didn’t blow anyone away, but he was a quality start machine. Consistent.

Projection: Solid No. 4 starter.

Comp: Floor: AAA flameout. Ceiling: Joe Saunders.

Estimated MLB Arrival Date: 2014

Season Summary

Russell's stats aren't exactly going to bowl you over, but that doesn't mean he should be overlooked. First off, his peripheral stats are solid. A 7.67 K/9, a 3.07 BB/9, a decent groundball rate makes for a pretty good pitcher.

Granted, not a dominant pitcher, but still a good one. But what makes those mildly impressive numbers mildly more impressive is the way in which Russell did it.

Max made the jump to Low-A Cedar-Rapids for the last part of the 2010 season and, well, he got knocked around pretty good. But come 2011 and Russell returned to the Kernels and showed improved command and effectiveness.

That ability to adapt earned him yet another late-season promotion to the next level, only this time he pretty much maintained his same level of production despite the jump. That still may not seem like much of anything to write home about, but what it suggests is that Russell is refining his ability.

For Russell, that is huge. He doesn't throw hard and his off-speed pitches are never going to be electric, so he is going to have make up for it by pitching smart, which his quick adjustment to High-A ball suggests he is starting to do.

Then again, Russell was a 2010 draft pick out of college, so this could just be a case of him coming in more polished than his less experienced peers in the California League.

What to Expect in 2012

Since Russell only made seven starts with the 66ers in 2011, the Angels will probably want to get him some more experience at that level next year. If he repeats his 2011 performance, then he should get a quick promotion to Double-A, but that is a decision that won't be taken lightly since it is a much bigger talent gap for him to close than the Low-A to High-A move.

Once he reaches Double-A, his prospect profile could get a major shot in the arm or get kicked right in the face. As mentioned before, Russell isn't overpowering, but he is still missing a fair amount of bats thus far. But the hitters in Double-A are much more advanced, so his stuff is really going to be put to the test.

If he can maintain his whiff rate, then he might be for real. If not, then Russell could be destined to languish in AA for awhile as he tries to figure out how to adapt to better competition.

The key to that is, and always will be, his curveball. Single-A players aren't able to square it up well because he is good at locating the pitch, at least by Single-A standards. If his curve still plays well in Double-A once he gets there, then Russell's future will seem a whole lot brighter. If not, let's hope he got a real degree during his four years in college.

24. RHP Steven Geltz

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Position: Relief Pitcher Level: AA (with two appearances at AAA)
Bats: Right Throws: Right Height: 5'10" Weight: 170 lbs.
Age: 24 Born: Nov. 1, 1987

2011 Season Stats (AA): 3-3, 46.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 31 H, 5 HR, 14 BB, 67 K, 2.69 FIP, .277 BABIP, 0.26 GO/AO

Fastball: B+. Geltz’s fastball touches 94 but generally sits at 92 with movement.

Breaking Ball: A. He throws a sharp cutting slider that causes a lot of misses.

Change-up:B+. Not actually a change up, but a splitter with diving action.

Performance: A. Just as dominant as a reliever as he’s been his whole career.

Projection: A very good middle reliever.

Comp: Floor: Francisco Rodriguez (Not the good one). Ceiling: J.J. Putz

Estimated MLB Arrival Date: As soon as mid-2012

Season Summary

Steve Geltz's season off on the wrong foot, to say the least. He was assigned to the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees to begin the year. His first outing went just fine, but he got lit up in his second outing and was quickly shuttled back to Double-A Arkansas for some more seasoning, which he definitely needed. But once he rejoined the Travs, it was smooth smailing for the dimunitive fireballer.

Being back in Arkansas really was for the best for Geltz since he had some command problems in Arkansas when he was promoted there in mid-season 2010. Those command issues seem to be behind him though as he walked just 2.7 batters per nine innings over the course of his AA season.

More importantly, Geltz continued to strike out batters at an eye-popping rate of 12.92 K/9. Actually I should say he "only" struck out 12.92 batters per nine innings since that was actually down from the 17.36 K/9 he registered in half a season at Arkansas in 2010. While that is a big dip, it isn't one worth complaining since no human on this earth can possibly maintain a 17+ K/9 rate.

Apparently Geltz does feel some bizarre need to carry extreme peripheral stats. This year, it was his 0.26 GO/AO rate. If my math is right, that means over 46.2 innings of work, he induced a mere 19 groundball outs. Even Jered Weaver thinks that is too many flyballs allowed.

Again, that rate is far too high to continue, but it does show just how much of an extreme flyball pitcher Geltz is. Those flyballs were actually a good thing for him in the spacious confines of Dickey-Stephens Park, the home of the Travs, where his BAA was just .154 and ERA was 1.72.

But on the road, it was more of a problem as his BAA jumped over 50 points to .207 and his ERA ballooned to 3.77, with four of his five homers allowed coming away from home. He definitely still got the job done on the road, but that is a sizeable split that his home stadium certainly aided him with.

You also might have noticed that Geltz pitched less than a full season's workload. Unfortunately, Geltz ened up missing almost an entire month of the season after being suspended for disciplinary reasons.

What incident caused that suspension is not known to the public, but considering the length of the penalty, one can't help but assume that there it was something major, which no doubt means that there is going to be a red flag associated with his character as he tries to make it to the majors.

Finally, it is worth noting that Geltz had zero saves on the season. That is a bit of a surprise since he looks like a potential lights out closer, but the organization has not yet seen him fit for end of game duties.

Instead, Geltz is used for multiple innings on a regular basis. He pitched 46.2 innings this season, but did that over just 32 appearances. That isn't entirely uncommon in the minors, but it will be curious to see how long the Angels keep him stretched out for frequent two-inning outings.

What to Expect in 2012

While his brief debut in Triple-A didn't go well this last season, there is no reason for the Angels to not start him off there, and keep him there, in 2012. Geltz has nothing left to prove in Double-A and arguably could have been promoted in the latter parts of the season.

While Geltz has been dominant at almost every stop, the jump to the high elevation of Salt Lake and the generally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League will be a HUGE test for Geltz. With the amount of flyballs he allows, he could get himself in trouble real quick.

Geltz is pretty much always going to be prone to giving up homers, but if shows up in Salt Lake and lets that tendency get out of hand, it is going to stall his ascent to the majors. If he starts coughing up homers at an increased rate while simultenously either suffering command problems or seeing his whiff rate decline to more mortal levels, then real questions will arise about whether he can hack it in the majors.

This would sort of be like what happened with Michael Kohn in the majors last season. All of the sudden Kohn was giving up more walks, missing less bats and then just couldn't keep the ball in the park.

That turned Kohn from a potential setup man last season into a guy that couldn't even earn a September call up. Geltz will face a similar challenge in 2012, only at Triple-A instead.

Given that his command struggles have never been as bad as Kohn's, Geltz should be in good shape to post strong numbers for the Bees and put himself in position for a big league call up late in 2012 or early in 2013. His flyball issues will probably prevent him from ever getting a real shot at being a big league closer, but he definitely seems like he has a career in middle relief.

As great as Geltz sounds, there is one factor that limits his projection to a certain degree, and that is his size. At just 5'10" and 170 pounds, Geltz is pretty small. His stature hasn't limited him so far, but the track record of guys his size staying healthy just isn't very good.

However, he has no real injury history worth worrying about. Combine the size concerns with his character concerns and that should help explain why he is this far down the prospect list despite his strong performance and obvious talent.

23. RHP AJ Schugel

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Position: Pitcher Level: Split the season between Low-A and High-A
Bats: Right Throws: Right Height: 6'1" Weight: 190 lbs.
Age: 22 Born: June 27, 1989

2011 Season Stats (Low-A): 4-3, 90.1 IP, 2.59 ERA, 73 H, 2 HR, 39 BB, 80 K, 3.24 FIP, .280 BABIP, 1.23 GO/AO

2011 Season Stats (High-A): 1-2, 19.2 IP, 5.03 ERA, 22 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 15 K, 3.40 FIP, .333 BABIP, 0.62 GO/AO

Fastball: B+. Sits around 91 mph with a hard sink and cutting action against RHB.

Breaking Ball: C. I’m thoroughly unimpressed with his slider. Slow, little movement.

Change-up: B+. I liked his change up, it has movement and he throws it for strikes.

Performance: Generates weak contact, good K’s, acceptable BB. Doing well in low minors.

Projection: Middle reliever right now, #3 starter if his breaking ball improves.

Comp: Floor: Trevor Bell. Ceiling: Shaun Marcum (if he develops a cutter).

Estimated MLB Arrival Date: 2015

Season Summary

Schugel continued his unlikely climb up the prospect ladder in 2011. Schugel was a 25th round draft choice in 2010 and a late-comer to pitching (he didn't start pitching full-time until his third year of college), but has impressed the Angel brass (which includes his father, an Angel scout) from the get go.

Schugel built on his rookie ball success my putting up some very nice numbers in relief for the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels to start the 2011 season. In fact, the Angels liked what they saw so much that they began transitioning him into the rotation.

Over the course of 25 appearances, including 12 starts, Schugel posted a 2.59 ERA before he earned a late promotion to High-A Inland Empire. Not too shabby for a guy who entered pro ball with low expectations.

His move to 66ers wasn't quite as successful as his time in Cedar Rapids though. It was only four starts, but Schugel ended the High-A season with a 5.03 ERA, though his peripherals in that stretch suggest that he actually pitched a fair bit better than the ERA would suggest.

In fact, in his next to last start, Schugel pitched five shutout innings. Frankly, no matter what he did at High-A, it is very impressive that he was able to pull of a conversion from reliever to starter and jump a level all in one season, especially considering his relative lack of experience.

What to Expect in 2012

Schugel has moved up relatively quickly considering that he hasn't been focusing on pitcher for that long, but things should slow down for him in 2012. Now that the Angels have apparently decided that Schugel is going to get a long look as a starting pitcher, he'll be returning to Inland Empire and seeing if he can't improve upon his brief debut there late in 2011.

Not only will Schugel be asked to prove that he has the arsenal to be a starter, but he will also have to prove that he can hold up under that heavy a workload. Keep in mind that Schugel never went more than six innings in any of his starts last season, so he has to show that he can both go deep into games but also do that over an entire season.

As Schugel is a good athlete, the stamina issue shouldn't be too much of a problem since he will have an offseason to build up for it rather than trying to stretch out in the middle of the season.

If the starting thing doesn't work out for Schugel, a return to the bullpen is always an option, but there is little reason for the Halos to make that decision hastily unless the experiment goes horribly awry quickly. Once that is settled though, we should get a better idea of what his ceiling truly is.

Will he show he can be a middle-of-the-rotation guy? Back-of-the-rotation? Or is he maybe a swing man or better suited to as an effective middle reliever? That's all guess work now, but it shouldn't be come this time next year.

If there is one area of Schugel's development to watch, it will be in his repertoire. There is some kind of weird universal consensus developing that Schugel needs to start throwing a slider cutter in addition to his sinker.

Since he doesn't throw overly hard, he just needs something else in his arsenal to keep hitters off balance and the cutter is the hot new trend, so I guess it make sense. If anything, consider the cutter a replacement for his lackluster slider, though one would hope he could develop both.

With a sinker, cutter, change and a show-me slider, that could give him enough variety to survive as a starter, otherwise, he's destined to retrun to middle relief.

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22. LHP Robert Fish

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Position: Relief Pitcher Level: AA
Bats: Left Throws: Left Height: 6'2" Weight: 230 lbs.
Age: 23 Born: Jan. 19, 1988

2011 Season Stats : 1-0, 30.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 21 H, 1 HR, 18 BB, 41 K, 2.80 FIP, .303 BABIP, 1.88 GO/AO

Fastball: A+. It’s rare to see LHP dial it up over 95, but Fish does. Incredible heater.

Breaking Ball: B. Seems to interchange curve and slider. Good movement on both.

Change-up: C. Rarely ever see him use it, but he reportedly has one.

Performance: B+. Guns flashing 100 on his FB were hot, but can’t fake missing bats.

Projection: Closer or good set up man.

Comp: Floor: Mike Gonzalez. Ceiling: Billy Wagner – yes he throws that hard.

Estimated MLB Arrival Date: 2012/2013

Season Summary

If the Rule V draft process is any indication, Robert Fish is a guy other teams really want. First, the Yankees took Fish in the draft from the Angels only to end up changing their mind and letting him go. The Royals then swooped in to snatch him up before they too thought better of it and finally returned him to the Angels just before the start of the season.

Obviously Robert didn't do enough in short auditions to keep his spot with those two other clubs, but the fact that they even gave him a shot speaks to how well thought of he is in terms of potential.

And make no mistake, it is potential alone that got him selected because he got pounded to the tune of an 8.93 ERA in Double-A in 2010, so those Rule V selections were all about projection. However in 2011, Fish returned to Double-A and did a fine job of justifying all that projection.

After coughing up a staggering nine homers in 2010, Fish allowed but one dinger this year, albeit in just over 30 innings of work. Still, he clearly figured out how to be much less hittable this season, which was only his second full season as a reliever.

But the reduction of homers did not come with a sacrifice in strikeouts as he fanned 41 batters over that span. Command remained a bit of an issue since he did issue 18 free passes, but those are much easier to stomach when he is keeping the ball in the yard.

With his big fastball, Fish can be death on lefties, but he also held his own against righties. In fact, 19.1 of his innings pitched came against right-handers and his ERA platoon split was virtually identical while his batting average allowed was actually 95 points LOWER against righties at .161 than it was against other lefties at .256. A LOOGY this guy ain't.

However, it is worth noting that 14 of his 18 total walks came against righties, which could be foretelling that his success on BAA against righties might have been a bit fluky.

That sound like a great year for Fish, right? Yeah, not quite. Unfortunately, Fish twice missed extended stretches of time with the Travelers. First in May, he was sent to extended spring training for undisclosed disciplinary reasons and stayed there for almost a month.

He also missed the entire month of July with leg injuries. Both absense were a real shame because they probably cost him a shot at a promotion to Triple-A and maybe even the majors.

What to Expect in 2012

There is little doubt that Fish will start the season in Triple-A in 2012, assuming he is back in the team's good graces from an attitude standpoint. There is even a minute chance that he could open the season with the big league club, but that seems unlikely given the depth chart at the moment.

That being said, Fish could use a season in Triple-A, if not for his own development, then for the Angels to figure out just how for real he is. Specifically, Fish had no problems with home runs in 2011, but the longball had been a major problem for him his entire career up until then.

As always seems to be the case with Salt Lake and the PCL, Fish is going to get the ultimate trial by fire on whether he has cured his case of gopheritis or if he just lucked into a one-year remission in 2011.

If he can do even a half-decent job of limiting homers while also proving that he can be a good soldier, a mid-season call up to the majors could be waiting for him. And that could be with the Angels or some other team. Let's not forget, two other franchises have already made plays to acquire him, so he could be in high demand come the trading deadline.

21. RHP Matt Shoemaker

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Position: Starting Pitcher  Level: AA
Bats: Right Throws: Right  Height: 6'2" Weight: 225 lbs.
Age: 24  Born: Sept. 27, 1986

2011 Season Stats (AA): 12-5, 156.1 IP, 2.48 ERA, 132 H, 17 HR, 35 BB, 129 K, 3.79 FIP, .261 BABIP, 0.80 GO/AO

2011 Season Stats (AAA): 0-2, 21.0 IP, 8.14 ERA, 28 H, 3 HR, 12 BB, 12 K, 5.77 FIP, .347 BABIP, 1.14 GO/AO

Fastball: B-. It’s a straight 91 mph fastball, nothing fancy. It’s effective because he spots it.

Breaking Ball: B. His slider is good in AA, but doesn’t grade a plus pitch in the majors.

Change-up: A. He uses a splitter as his change. Great speed differential and diving action.

Performance: A. Angels minor league pitcher of the year.

Projection: 5th starter or effective swing man

Comp: Floor: Trevor Bell. Ceiling: Derek Lowe.

Video: Matt Shoemaker Interview at 31:35.

Estimated MLB Arrival Date: Possibly mid-2012, more likely 2013

Season Summary

Shoemaker came out of nowhere to become a top pitcher in the Texas League and all but forced his way onto this prospect list. After a fairly non-descript season in High-A ball the year before, Shoemaker got the promotion to Double-A and absolutely dominated the Texas League, leading the the league both in ERA and strikeouts.

That was good enough to earn him an All-Star nod, Texas League Pitcher of the Year and a spot on this year's USA Baseball team. Not too bad for a guy who wasn't even drafted out of college.

The big thing to worry about with any Traveler pitcher is whether his stats are artificially improved by playing in the spacious confines of Dickey-Stephens Park. That wasn't the case at all for Shoemaker though as his home-road splits were nearly identical.

If anything, Shoemaker was better away from Little Rock with a road ERA of 2.33 and BAA of .210. Whatever the reason for his breakout season, those splits certainly indicate that it is for real. That being said, Shoemaker is not as good as his numbers.

His 3.79 FIP with the Travs strongly suggests that a fair amount of luck was involved. That doesn't mean he didn't have a nice season, just that his level of dominance is probably not going to be sustainable.

There is one red flag for Shoemaker though. At the beginning of the season, he actually started in Triple-A, making four starts for the Bees, getting shelled in the process. He returned to Double-A after posting an 8.14 ERA in Salt Lake.

That could easily be explained away as him not being able to make such a big jump so fast, but it also might be an early warning sign that his stuff just isn't going to work at that level of competition or in the hitter-friendly environments of the Pacific Coast League.

What to Expect in 2012

Fully expect Shoemaker and his awesome 'stache to start the season in Triple-A. The thin air in Salt Lake should be a true test of whether Shoemaker's new-found ability to not allow hits was a one year fluke or not.

If he reverts to his pre-2011 form, Shoemaker could disappear from the prospect radar just as fast as he got on it. Of course, if he can continue to limit base hits, his strikeout and walk rates should allow him to have decent success and possibly even make him a candidate for the Angels' major league rotation in 2013.

The guess here, in a word, is "regression." Shoemaker has always managed to miss bats at a good rate, but his flyball tendencies and hittability are not going to make for a fun time in the PCL. Hopefully he won't get bombed all the way back to Double-A, but it seems unlikely that he will be much more than an average to above average performer.