NBA Predictions 2011-12: Predicting How Each Team's Best Rookie Produces

The NBA lockout is over after nearly five months of meetings and public posturing, and in the end, neither side is happy with the deal that was made, which probably means it was the best deal possible.

Once the new deal is approved by both the owners and the players (which should happen without a hitch; imagine the backlash if the lockout were to be back on because one of the sides reneged), teams will be able to sign free agents and rookies.

Once everyone is under contract, training camp will start next Friday, December 9th, and we will be just 16 days away from the start of the NBA season.

With that all under way, the thing that's got my wheels turning is the prospect of the rookies in the league, and as I have a vested interest in them (a few of them are going to attempt to turn around my Cavaliers), I figured that I would look at all of them.

Here's how I see the season panning out for the best rookie on each team.

Atlanta Hawks: Keith Benson

The Hawks got something that every team is on the lookout for in Keith Benson: height. Benson is going to need to bulk up to get some major playing time, though.

At 6'11", Benson weighs just 217 pounds (as of the combine last June). As a comparison, I'm 6'3" and weigh just 20 pounds less than Benson. Dude is skinnier than Kate Moss.

Anyway, at his current weight, Benson is going to struggle with stronger big men in the league and probably get into foul trouble easily.

I can see him being a good backup eventually, but his rookie year shouldn't see him average more than five points and four rebounds. 

Boston Celtics: JaJuan Johnson

JaJuan Johnson is exactly what the Celtics needed, and if they don't end up re-signing Glen Davis, Johnson could see major playing time.

Johnson has great offensive instincts, but like Keith Benson, he's a bit skinny. If he can play facing the basket and get some open looks, his confidence could rise and get him more playing time.

Besides Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal (and Big Baby if they re-sign him), Johnson is their next real big man. Eight points and four rebounds is probably a ceiling for Johnson, but that could go as low as four and three.

Charlotte Bobcats: Kemba Walker

My favorite moment of the NBA draft was when Kemba Walker's name got called. He stood up, hugged his family and started tearing up. Showing that kind of emotion really humanizes a player and lets you see what he's made of.

Walker crying showed me that he just realized his dream, and beyond that that he'll do anything to extend his career.

I don't really want to make the comparison, but there's a quarterback who got drafted last year that nobody believed in, and everyone thought was drafted too early. Now he's 5-1 as a starter this season for the Broncos. I'm talking, of course, about Tim Tebow.

I don't think Walker will put up jaw-dropping stats, probably something around 12 points and seven assists this year, but eventually he will become that emotional leader of a very good team.

Their first pick, Bismack Biyombo, could end up being something like Dikembe Mutombo, but he's not going to be great this season, so I see Kemba as their best rookie this season.

Chicago Bulls: Nikola Mirotic

Chicago acquired Montenegrin big man Nikola Mirotic through the draft, and he looks to be a promising offensive option down the road, but he probably won't see much playing time this season.

With Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik populating their top four spots in the depth chart at the 4 and 5, Mirotic will likely end up being a victory cigar if he comes to the states at all this season.

An average of three points and two boards is probably the most he'll see in his limited time.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving is an obvious possibility to win the Rookie of the Year Award, as he was the number one pick in the draft. Just as likely is the possibility that he struggles in his first year with the Cavs.

Cleveland is undertaking a massive rebuilding project ever since LeBron James left, and the lineup should change quite a bit throughout the year.

Still, Irving should get the keys to the point guard spot a few weeks into the season and will keep them for the remainder of the season, so he'll have no problem getting playing time.

I would think something in the range of 15 points and six assists a game isn't out of the realm of possibilities. 

Dallas Mavericks: No Draft Picks

Dallas didn't have any draft picks this year, and focused instead on improving their team through trades.

They acquired Rudy Fernandez from the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for their two draft picks.

Dallas decided to focus on the now, and will be trying to keep their team together in the coming weeks.

Denver Nuggets: Kenneth Faried

Denver is in a precarious position right now with J.R Smith, Kenyon Martin and Wilson Chandler seemingly stuck in China until March, so their roster is a bit light as of right now. Of course, that should change by the time free agency comes to a head.

Still, there is plenty of room for Kenneth Faried to step up early and often, as the only big men standing in his way are Chris Andersen and Timofey Mozgov (Nene is a free agent and Kosta Koufos is about as much of a threat as a mouse is to a lion).

Faried could get a lot of playing time. Depending on how he does offensively, he could make an impact early. Seven points and eight rebounds to go along with some blocks here and there should be what Faried will shoot for.

Detroit Pistons: Brandon Knight

Detroit nabbing Brandon Knight was the steal of the draft as of right now as far as I'm concerned; he should have gone in the top five.

Knight could compete for the Rookie of the Year Award as long as Detroit gives him the playing time.

Knight can do a little bit of everything on the court, so he should end up with something around 12 points, five assists and four rebounds.

Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson

Washington State's Klay Thompson was great for the Cougars offense last season, but he wasn't exactly a stalwart on defense, which kind of confuses me as to why the no-defense Warriors with their excellent offensive guards would draft a no-defense, all-offense guard.

It makes sense to draft him if they're planning on trading Monta Ellis (which seems more likely every day), but if they end up swapping him for Andre Iguodala, that does nothing for Thompson.

I see Thompson being on the bench all year long, coming in from time to time, maybe getting 15 minutes a game and averaging six or seven points.

Houston Rockets: Marcus Morris

For me, the hardest two guys to put a finger on in this year's rookie class are the Morris brothers. They could end up being anything from decent starters to average backups to guys who are in and out of the league.

However, this year it should be pretty easy to guess what they'll end up doing. Marcus is in a better situation than his brother, as he is on a better team and has a better shot at getting playing time since the Rockets are thin in terms of big men.

He's a decent scorer down low and doesn't make as many mistakes with the ball in his hands as his brother, so he should get minutes and keep them.

I'd say seven point and four rebounds to start out, possibly going up if he plays well.

Indiana Pacers: No Picks

The Indiana Pacers got a good young point guard instead of drafting any players in this year's draft, and given the unanimous idea that this was a weak draft class, it was probably a good idea.

They traded their picks for George Hill, who should compete with Darren Collison, making them both better in the process.

Los Angeles Clippers: Trey Thompkins

It seems as if Trey Thompkins could be a steal in this draft, as his up-and-down college career definitely hurt his status in the draft.

He's a post-up scorer off the bench that the Clippers could use and plays tough defense when he really cares.

I see a slow start from Thompkins, leading to him having to try harder to get his minutes as the season wears on. Still, I see a lackluster rookie season from Thompkins to the tune of about five points and four rebounds.

Los Angeles Lakers: Andrew Goudelock

Andrew Goudelock wasn't the Lakers first pick in this draft, but I'm convinced that he's the best player they got.

Don't believe me? Check out the range this guy has. A combo guard who can easily drain 27-footers is valuable to any team.

Goudelock could easily end up being the three-point specialist the Lakers didn't have last season (Derek Fisher and Lamar Odom led the team in three-point percentage).

Goudelock should average around six or seven points a game and shoot 40 percent from downtown with Kobe getting him wide-open catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Selby

Josh Selby went from freshman phenomenon to train wreck in a matter of a few months, and now that he's been drafted it's time for him to start from scratch.

Selby is going to be buried on their depth chart behind Mike Conley and Greivis Vazquez, so he's going to have to fight for minutes. If he would have been drafted higher they would feel more obligated to give him minutes, but taking him late in the second round will give them some leeway with him.

I would expect no more than five points and two assists a game from Selby, unless someone in front of him goes down.

Miami Heat: Norris Cole

The Miami Heat may have gotten a steal with Norris Cole, the formerly flat-topped point guard out of Cleveland State.

The interesting thing with Cole is that if Miami neglects to re-sign Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers gets a contract offer that they are unable or unwilling to match, Norris Cole is suddenly at the top of their point guard depth chart.

That's not saying I think that he'll be their starter—more than likely they'll go out and get a player who has been waived via amnesty like Baron Davis and have Norris Cole as their backup.

If that's the case, five points and three assists with lots of playing time is quite possible.

Milwaukee Bucks: Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris isn't as fast and athletic as most of the players in the league, but he is a strong yet undersized power forward.

Harris has far too much competition to get any amount of playing time this year (Milwaukee has four power forwards under contract), so he shouldn't get much more than 10 to 15 minutes a game.

I predict no more than four points and three rebounds a game unless someone gets hurt in front of him.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams

Derrick Williams seems to be the front-runner for the Rookie of the Year Award as of right now, as he is the best "NBA-ready" prospect from the draft, so shouldn't be hurt as much as others by the lack of a real training camp.

Williams should take the starting small forward position early (Love pretty much has a lock on the power forward spot) and end up averaging somewhere around 14 points and six rebounds.

New Jersey Nets: Marshon Brooks

Marshon Brooks is one of the most interesting shooting guards from this year's draft, as he has the size and athleticism that could make him able to compete at the NBA level.

Brooks is coming in to fill in a weak spot for the Nets, as they could be left with just Anthony Morrow if they don't re-sign Sasha Vujacic. Given the opportunity to get some minutes, I could see Brooks average around seven points and four rebounds, possibly more as the season goes along.

New Orleans Hornets: No Picks

New Orleans is in such a big hole right now that there's a more-than-real possibility that they lose Chris Paul by the end of the season.

They sold their only pick (the 45th) to the Knicks for a million bucks. The Knicks then used that pick to draft the future Brian Scalabrine, Josh Harrellson, so I would say that's a good trade.

New York Knicks: Iman Shumpert

Leave it to Knicks fans to boo anything their front office does when they don't do exactly what the fans want.

Sure, the Knicks need a big man and could have gotten Kenneth Faried, but Iman Shumpert isn't a terrible pickup.

Shumpert is a great defender and should transfer well to the NBA. He won't have great stats—probably around five points and a few rebounds—but he'll play defense for the Knicks like nobody else on the team.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Reggie Jackson

Hopefully for the Thunder, this Reggie Jackson doesn't earn the nickname "Mr. October" like the baseball-playing Reggie Jackson got from the Yankees back in the '70s.

Reggie Jackson should take the place of backup point guard Eric Maynor, who'll probably be traded by the time the season starts, which is good for the Thunder because Jackson plays quite a lot like Russell Westbrook.

Look for him to get about 15 minutes a game and average about six points and three assists with quite a few jaw-dropping moments as the season goes along.

Orlando Magic: Justin Harper

Justin Harper will be a hit-or-miss prospect for the Magic. If he hits, they could end up with a good stretch forward with more athleticism than Ryan Anderson.

I think it will take quite a while for Harper to catch on, and as the Magic have a handful of decent big men, he shouldn't see a whole lot of playing time.

Look for something like four points and two boards a game from Harper.

Philadelphia 76ers: Nikola Vucevic

Philadelphia picked a very safe big man in Nikola Vucevic, as he has been in the states for the past three years with the USC Trojans.

He has a great jumper and good enough size that he'll be able to play some defense while he's at it, but he may have to compete with a handful of big men for minutes.

Still, I can see him averaging around six points and five boards for the year.

Phoenix Suns: Markieff Morris

Markieff is joining Taylor Griffin and Robin Lopez in a long line of brothers that the Suns have drafted over the past few years. Unfortunately, it seems to me that the Suns have gotten the raw end of the deal on every brother they've picked.

Markieff is more of a hothead than his brother, but he plays better defense and is more oriented to play the power forward position at the NBA level.

I expect him to struggle early but find his way eventually, averaging around five points and five boards a game.

Portland Trail Blazers: Nolan Smith

Here you see Nolan Smith showing off his Reggie Miller face, but it's impossible that he ends up anywhere near Reggie Miller on the court.

Smith was a great leader for Duke after Kyrie Irving went down early in the season and was able to lead them through the meat of their schedule. That bodes well for his ability to stay in the league for a while, as he seems to have a high basketball IQ.

He's pretty average at everything, able to shoot a bit and play some defense, so he should be able to hold his own without making many mistakes, something that can carry a rookie a long way.

Still, I don't see him putting up great stats, possibly five points and two assists a game.

Sacramento Kings: Jimmer Fredette

The ever-present Jimmer Fredette conundrum. The best part about the end of the lockout (besides the fact that there is actual basketball coming up in about a month) is the fact that this mystery is going to be solved.

At the very least, Jimmer will end up being a three-point specialist, as he has ridiculous range, so he has some kind of role in this league. This year he'll get minutes, as he was a high draft pick, but the results may vary.

I see Jimmer getting about seven or eight points a game with not much in terms of rebounds or assists.

San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard could come up and surprise everyone and end up being one of the best rookies this year. He is athletic enough to play good defense and refined enough to have an offensive game at the NBA level.

All that, combined with the fact that Richard Jefferson isn't getting the job done at small forward for the Spurs, could get Leonard more minutes as the season rolls on.

I could see Leonard averaging somewhere around nine points and six rebounds for the Spurs this season.

Toronto Raptors: Jonas Valanciunas

The only draft pick that the Raptors had in the draft was used on Jonas Valanciunas, who won't be able to come to the NBA until next season.

If he were to be around this season, I could see him as a dark horse candidate for the Rookie of the Year Award. Instead he'll be coming over just as soon as next season's uber-deep draft class rolls into the league.

Utah Jazz: Enes Kanter

Enes Kanter is a mystery as of right now, but to me he seems like the real deal.

Kanter should be the starting center in Utah within the first month of the season, as Al Jefferson could be knocked down to power forward and traded altogether. That should give Kanter plenty of minutes to show what he's made of. 

I think there will be a learning curve, but you'll see moments of brilliance from Kanter, who should average around 10 points, seven rebounds and a block a game.

Washington Wizards: Jan Vesely

I don't think Jan Vesely is a legitimate NBA player. There's just something about a 6'11" small forward that doesn't sit right with me.

Still, Vesely is incredibly athletic and is playing on a team full of athletes, so they should be entertaining. Look for Vesely to be a part of two alley-oops a game and get around six points and five rebounds.

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