MLB Free Agents 2012: An In-Depth Look at 14 Boston Red Sox DH Options

Like selecting a closer, this is another decision the Boston Red Sox do not need to rush. First of all, there are only 14 DH jobs available. Second, there are always more DHs available than there are spots to fill.

Writers on this site and others have already written thousands of words about the Red Sox DH options. However, most of these commentaries have been opinion and speculation, with little of the "Moneyball"-type of hard, comparative analysis to support that speculation.

In the pages to follow, I will focus on several elements that the Red Sox brain trust will undoubtedly consider before making a final decision. The factors I will address are:

1. Overall hitting and slugging trend for the past three years

2. Clutch hitting, career and 2011

3. Career hitting in Fenway Park

4. Career hitting against the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, Boston's top AL East rivals

5. Potential impact of interleague play.

I'm also going to assume that the if the Red Sox do not sign David Ortiz, they will prefer a right-handed hitter to help balance the lefties in their lineup.

To set the table, let's review what has happened recently with potential DH candidates. 

The Philadelphia Phillies signed Jim Thome and traded for Ty Wigginton.

Also, Ryan Doumit signed with the Twins, and the Indians re-signed Grady Sizemore. Doumit is a catcher not known for his defensive ability, and Sizemore has health issues, making both candidates for an "outside the box" DH approach, perhaps by platooning.

Would (or should) the Red Sox consider such an approach? Should they look at more than one player to cycle through the DH slot in the batting order? That might be an option if David Ortiz chooses to go elsewhere.

For purposes of this slideshow, however, I will focus on individuals who are on the Red Sox roster today, are free agents or could be acquired through a trade.

Let's start by eliminating some of the names being bandied about as potential designated hitters. 

Jason Kubel is a name that has been mentioned in some circles because he's only 29, but he's another left-handed batter who hit only 12 HR last year for the Twins. He will be offered arbitration. The Red Sox did put in a waiver claim for him last summer, but I don't see Kubel as a likely DH candidate. He will likely be signed by a team that will play him in the outfield.

With Vladimir Guerrero's production in steady decline, the Baltimore Orioles did not offer him arbitration. Hideki Matsui of the Oakland A's  also posted below-average numbers in 2011, and I don't see him being signed by another team. Jorge Posada, Jack Cust and even former Red Sox fan favorite Wily Mo Pena are available, but will not be giving serious consideration.

Other potential DHs that the Red Sox will pass on include Marcus Thames, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Milton Bradley.

OK, here we go with the top prospects (in no particular order)—and don't be surprised if you see a couple of unexpected names!

1. Carlos Quentin

The Red Sox could easily get Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox in a trade, and there are certainly some reasons to consider such a move.

Unlike many other players on this list, outfielder Quentin is still relatively young. Signed out of Stanford by the Arizona Diamondbacks, he's only 29; 2011 was his sixth big league season.

The White Sox control his rights for one more year. He is third-year arbitration-eligible and earned a little over $5 million for 2011. He projects to earn in the vicinity of $7.5 million for 2012.

Although he did not hit for average, he did hit 107 home runs in his four years with Chicago, so he has some pop. He has a career slugging percentage of .490, and an OPS of .836.

He also played 45 games as DH for Chicago over the past three years, so he knows what he would be getting into.

The Sox went hard after Quentin before this year’s trade deadline—although some of that interest undoubtedly stemmed from the fact that Quentin had an excellent first half.

And therein lies the rub.

His last two months were funk-like and forgettable, and his season ended after he suffered a nagging injury (sprained AC joint in his left shoulder) which just never completely healed. He played only seven innings of Chicago's last 37 games.

OK, let’s look at the matrix:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

162-game averages: 32 HR, 101 RBI, .252 BA

BA last three years: .236, .243, .254

Career slugging and OPS: .490, .836

2011 slugging and OPS: .499, .838

William Yoder of the Nats Blog points out that while Quentin's power numbers aren't bad when projected out to a 162-game season; the problem is that he never plays 162 games. "In fact over the past three years, he has averaged just 116 games each year."

Multiple trips to the DL over the last four years should make the Red Sox extremely cautious, especially given the injury problems they had with J.D. Drew.

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .249

Career BA late in close games: .249

2011 numbers: .263 and .297

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.304 BA 1 HR 53 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .209 BA 3 HR 98 PA

Tampa: .212 BA 7 HR 138 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

Quentin is a decent outfielder, and would not be a defensive liability when the Red Sox lose the DH in National League parks.

Bottom Line

According to Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com, "The most obvious guy to be playing elsewhere in 2012 seems to be right fielder Carlos Quentin."

Should "elsewhere" be Boston? 

Despite the power numbers, Quentin projects consistent mediocrity. He hit .253 his rookie year with Arizona (2006), .254 with Chicago last year and is a lifetime .252 hitter. That's 12 points lower than league-wide average for the DH in 2011 (.266).

I would also point out his abysmal track record against the Yankees and the Rays, and suggest that the Red Sox could find a better DH who can perform well against the iron of the AL East.

2. Carlos Beltran

Switch-hitting outfielder Carlos Beltran is the fourth-best hitter on the free-agent market behind Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes. He’s also the only one who might be obtainable for less than several barge-loads of cash. He was obtained by the San Francisco Giants in a trade-deadline deal last summer from the New York Mets, and the Giants, desperate for offense, would love to re-sign him.

For the injury-prone Beltran, going to the American League might be a better fit, because he could probably reduce the wear and tear on his body by slotting in as a DH.

Beltran will be 35 next year, but he is still an all-around performer who can produce. However, knee injuries cost him parts of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, which may make some teams cautious about a multi-year deal. 

OK, let’s look at the matrix:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

Beltran, who came up with Kansas City in 1998, has hit 302 HR with a lifetime BA of .283 over 14 seasons. His 2011 numbers were particularly encouraging; he hit .300 with a slugging percentage of .551 and an OPS of .920—all well above his career averages.

Just as importantly, he played in 142 games—his highest number of appearances since 2008. Any lingering questions about his wearing down or his full recovery from the knee problems were answered by his performance in San Francisco. He hit .323 with nine doubles, four triples and seven home runs in 44 games for the Giants. To summarize:

162-game averages: 28 HR 105 RBI .283 BA

BA last three years: .325, .255, .300

Career slugging and OPS: .496, .857

2011 slugging and OPS: .525, .910

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .249

Career BA late in close games: .271

2011 numbers: .280 and .277

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.327 BA 4 HR 110 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .290 BA 8 HR 286 PA

Tampa: .240 BA 2 HR 141 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

With Beltran in the lineup, the Red Sox would not skip a beat. He would play right field, and play it well.

Bottom Line

Beltran’s 2011 salary was $18.5 million, and given his age and injury issues it is more likely that he will sign for under $15 million per year if he can get a multi-year deal in a situation that is to his liking. Boston—where he would have a real shot at a World Series—would seem to fit the bill.

Yes, it seems that Beltran would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox…but not necessarily as a full-time DH. As a powerful switch-hitting outfielder who can still play well in the field, it is more likely that the Red Sox would try to sign him to fill their right field void. 

3. Magglio Ordonez

A right-handed power hitter, Ordonez was signed by the White Sox in 1991 and made his major league debut late in the 1997 season. He played eight seasons in Chicago, and then signed a free-agent deal with the Tigers in 2005. His high-water mark was 2007, when he hit .363 and 54 doubles to lead the AL in both categories. He finished second in MVP voting that year.

Since then, he has suffered through serious ankle injuries, which have no doubt contributed to his performance deterioration.

Last summer, Ordonez almost quit baseball because of the slow rehab of his surgically repaired right ankle. He finally got it together for the final month of the year. Ordonez hit .419/.444/.558 in 13 games in September, and went 5-for-11 against the Yankees in the ALDS. He was a non-factor, however, in the ALCS loss to the Rangers, with only two plate appearances. 

OK, let’s look at the matrix:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

John Autin of High Heat Stats has done a very good analysis of the hitters whose production increased (and decreased) the most in 2011. Only 16 players in MLB declined more from 2010 to 2011 than Ordonez, whose batting average on balls in play dropped 17.2 percent. His overall average dropped 18 percent.

Even more significantly, Ordonez has showed a steady decline in batting average since his monster year of 2007: .363, .317, .310. .303, 255.

162-game averages: 26 HR 108 RBI .309 BA

BA last three years: .310, .303, .255

Career slugging and OPS: .502, .871

2011 slugging and OPS: .331, .634

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .277

Career BA late in close games: .289

2011 numbers: .270 and .286

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.341 BA 7 HR 188 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .301 BA 21 HR 407 PA

Tampa: .290 BA 12 HR 375 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

With Ordonez as DH, the Red Sox would have a problem in National League parks. He was never a defensive superstar, and both his age (38) and his ankle surgeries have slowed him considerably. He would be a defensive liability.

Bottom Line

Despite his declining stats, Ordonez has hit well in Fenway, and has hit well against the AL East rivals. He has also shown that he is still a dangerous hitter in the clutch, even with overall numbers that represent a mere shadow of his former prowess.

In 2010 he earned $17.8 million—the ninth-highest salary in the game. For 2011 he signed a one-year, $10 million deal. He also says his ankle feels normal for the first time in a long time.

Even with a significant pay cut, he is not a good risk for the Red Sox.

4. Matt Murton

Matt Murton may be the best hitter you've never heard of.

Murton, now playing for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan, is the answer to a great trivia question: Name the other player the Red Sox gave up in the blockbuster 2004 deal involving Nomar Garciaparra.

Murton played just 155 games in the Red Sox organization before the trade, but during that time he exhibited the ability to get on base that has been the hallmark of his career. By 2006, he was starting for the Cubs, and that year he hit .297 with 13 HR in 144 games. Unfortunately for Murton, the Cubs were seeking more power in their outfield; bringing in Cliff Floyd and Alfonso Soriano left little room for Murton.

Over the next couple of years the former Georgia Tech outfielder bounced through the Oakland and Colorado organizations, never getting enough action to merit a full-time major league job. By the end of 2009, his stat line read: .286/.352/.436 in 1,058 MLB plate appearances. 

Believing that he needed to hit every day to show what he could really do, Murton signed with the Hanshin Tigers. In his first year he became only the fourth player in Nippon Professional Baseball history to have a 200-hit season, and he broke Ichiro Suzuki's single-season record by stroking 214 hits in 144 games. 

Not surprisingly, he won the NPB batting title that year with a .349 average,  He also contributed 17 home runs and 91 RBIs, to go along with an on-base percentage of .395, a .499 slugging percentage and an .894 OPS.

He continued to hit well in 2011, his option year, and Hanshin wants him back. But every indication is that Murton hopes that his performance in Japan has earned him another shot at  MLB. 

Under the circumstances, the comparison matrix does not apply to Murton. However, baseball savants agree that the talent level in Japan is somewhere between AAA and MLB. Murton has made his point, and there is little doubt that he could now improve upon his MLB career line of .286/.352/.436 in 1,058 MLB plate appearances. 

With reference to interleague play, Murton is an above-average corner outfielder who could step right into the lineup when needed to do so in National League parks.

Bottom Line

He's an on-base machine, and there are a lot of similarities with Wade Boggs—another talented hitter who languished in the minors for several years before being given his chance. 

OK, Murton's power numbers make him an odd choice as a DH, but with the powerful Red Sox lineup surrounding him, Murton's ability to constantly get on base could make him an intriguing option. Boggs also was a DH for 107 games in his career, producing only six HR from that slot. However, he hit .328 and knocked in 37 runs as a DH.

While Murton will not equal Boggs' Hall of Fame 162-game average stat line of .328 with a .415 on-base percentage, he does have greater power potential than Boggs, who averaged eight HR and 67 RBI per season.

Murton does have a shot at equaling or exceeding Boggs' .443 slugging percentage and .858 OPS. In addition, he would not require a large contract; he earned $1.5 million in Japan this year.

5. Bobby Abreu

Left-handed hitter Bobby Abreu is entering the final year of his contract with the LA Angels, and there are thoughts in some circles that new Angels GM Jerry Dipoto might consider trading him—and even eat part of his salary to do so.

He is a 16-year veteran, originally signed by Houston. His 2,053 career games rank him first among outfielders.

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

It is clear that Abreu's career is on a downward slope. He will be 38 by the start of the 2012 season, and his power numbers (as well as his batting average) in the last two years were way down from his career averages. He hit only eight HR in 2011.

As the numbers show, he is still a dangerous hitter in the clutch; in fact, his 2011 performance exceeded his excellent career numbers.

He still has a good batting eye as well. Abreu's 78 walks ranked ninth in the AL in 2011, contributing to an OBP 100 points higher than his batting average. He's also a savvy baserunner, managing 21 steals even at his age. To summarize:

162-game averages: 20 HR 96 RBI .293 BA

BA last three years: .293, .255, .253

Career slugging and OPS: .481, .878

2011 slugging and OPS: .365, .717

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .301

Career BA late in close games: .282

2011 numbers: .311 and .306

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.280 BA 1 HR 238 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays:

New York: .310 BA 7 HR 170 PA

Tampa: .287 BA 11 HR 329 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

Abreu could still play the outfield in National League parks, but the Red Sox should not expect major contributions with the glove.

Bottom Line

By virtue of reaching 1,100 plate appearances in 2010-2011, Abreu's $9 million option for 2012 has vested. Barring a trade, he should be back in Los Angeles for a fourth season with the Angels.

In 2011 the Angels made Abreu their primary DH, and he played 108 games in that slot. Lifetime as a DH, he has hit .250 with eight HR and a mediocre .704 OPS in 672 plate appearances.

Despite his clutch hitting ability, his decent lifetime numbers at Fenway, and his success against the Yankees and Rays, all those numbers are trending downward. The Red Sox can do better.

6. Aramis Ramirez

Chicago Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez is an interesting case. 

He just turned down a player option to return to the Cubs in 2012 for $16 million, and is testing the free-agent waters.

His timing is terrific in one respect, because it's a seller's market for third basemen this offseason. A number of teams have a need at that position, and Ramirez's only competition is the likes of Mark DeRosa and Wilson Betemit.

There are some warning signs, however, that he and his agent may have overestimated the demand by seeking a minimum of a three-year guaranteed contract. He will be 34 in June, and has had a history of injury. Some think he may never be able to replicate his 2011 season.

And, while he is an acknowledged major league power hitter, he is relatively ham-fisted in the field.

Mark Simon of ESPN writes that Ramirez finishes in the bottom three in MLB in every defensive category for third basemen over the past several years. 

With respect to the stat "Fielding Runs Above/Below Average," Ramirez had a minus-14 and was 99th of 100 third basemen ranked. Chris Johnson from Houston was the only other player to be worse than minus-five.

I love Matt Trueblood's description of him in the field: "Ramirez is a statue at third base, a flat-footed nightmare with a good arm but no range who clings to the foul line as if being out of arm's reach would suddenly turn the field to a deep sea in which he could not swim."

If teams shy away from him because of concerns about his age, durability and suspect defense, it might make sense for him to consider a DH gig in the American league.

So, how does he stack up?

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

After posting his worst numbers ever in 2010, (.241 average and .745 OPS) Ramirez seized his contract year by the throat and batted .306 in 2011. He added 27 HR, 93 RBI and had a healthy .361 on-base percentage to go along with a .510 slugging percentage and an OPS of .871. He won the Silver Slugger award at third base. To summarize:

162-game averages: 30 HR 108 RBI .284 BA

BA last three years: .317, .241, .306

Career slugging and OPS: .500, .842

2011 slugging and OPS: .510, .871

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .247

Career BA late in close games: .289

2011 numbers: .211 and .292

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.417 BA 0 HR 13 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .417 BA 0 HR 26 PA

Tampa: .167 BA 1 HR 27 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

If Ramirez were the DH, the Red Sox would not necessarily lose his bat in National League parks—so long as they are willing to risk his defense at third

Bottom Line

Ramirez is one of the few candidates in this analysis whose 2011 performance was better than his career average. His stat lines are certainly great, and would be well above the league average for DH.

There are, however, a few warning signs hiding among the otherwise gaudy numbers. For example, he doesn't hit all that well with two outs and runners in scoring position, but his average with a four-run or greater lead jumps to .365. That's not when you need the hits.

But all of this analysis is moot. Despite his hands of stone, some team will unlock the vault to offer him the big bucks to be their everyday third baseman. Ramirez will earn far more as a position player than he will as a DH, so he is not really an option.

7. Michael Cuddyer

Right-handed hitter Michael Cuddyer has spent his entire 11-season major league career with the Minnesota Twins, and is now exploring free agency. Although the Twins will offer him arbitration, he is one of the Type-A free agents that will not cost the signing team a draft pick. He made $10.5 million last year. 

During his time as a Twin, he has been a consistent hitter with decent power who has played five positions and has become a real leader in the clubhouse. He was selected to his first All-Star Game last season.

He has drawn quite a bit of interest from a number of teams, including the Red Sox, because of his leadership skills and his versatility.

Ricky Doyle of NESN.com argues that the clubhouse situation evident at the end of 2011 could well be improved by bringing in Cuddyer. For the past three years he has been the recipient of the Bob Allison Leadership Award, given to "the Twins player who exemplifies determination, hustle, tenacity, competitive spirit and leadership both on and off the field." 

Doyle concludes that adding "a player of Cuddyer's character could go a long way toward restoring the clubhouse camaraderie that was at the heart of Boston's last two World Series titles -- particularly in 2004." 

Cuddyer usually plays right field, but has also played center and left as well as the infield. Doyle points out that Cuddyer has played 210 games at first, 171 games at third and 79 games at second in his career.

Critics point out that the fact that he has played all those positions doesn't mean that he is proficient at any of them. He is also deaf in his left ear, which makes it more difficult for him to play third and left field.

All agree, however, that he is pretty consistent at the plate. Paul Boye of Crashburn Alley, a Phillies blog, wrote up a detailed analysis of how Cuddyer might fit in Philadelphia. One of the nuggets he presents is that his career OPS is more than .100 points higher against lefties than righties; he had a .311/.403/.589 stat line against lefties in 176 plate appearances last year.

As an added bonus, Cuddyer is a career .338 (25-for-74) hitter in 22 postseason games.

So, how does he stack up?

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

In 2011 Cuddyer had his best season since 2006, and was selected to his first All-Star team. While his slugging and OPS numbers are trending slightly downward, his average is going up. To summarize:

162-game averages: 20 HR, 82 RBI, .272 BA

BA last three years: .276, .271, .284

Career slugging and OPS: .451, .794

2011 slugging and OPS: .459, .805

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .249

Career BA late in close games: .271

2011 numbers: .280 and .277

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.276 BA 1 HR 82 PA

4. Career hitting against the Yankees and Rays:

New York: .230 BA 4 HR 190 PA

Tampa: .233 BA 6 HR 204 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

With Cuddyer as DH, the Red Sox would have a lot of versatility in National League parks due to his ability to play several positions.

Bottom Line

Cuddyer is still only 33, so he can be expected to be an effective producer for several more years. He could probably extend his career by becoming a DH, although his versatility is what will make him attractive to a number of teams looking at roster flexibility.

Also, while his bat would be strong enough for him to be a DH in the powerful Boston lineup, that's not the case with other AL teams who look to their DH for power above all else. As a result, the demand will be for him to play in the field, and due to his perceived intangibles he will probably receive offers well beyond what the Red Sox would hope to pay him to DH.

That's not to say that the Red Sox should not continue to consider him for a roster spot; he could well be their primary right fielder next year. But I do not expect that he will be the Boston DH.

8. Cody Ross

Cody Ross, one of the rare birds who bats right and throws left, became an instant hero in San Francisco when he virtually single-handedly dismantled the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2010 NLCS, hitting .350 with three HR and three doubles in the six-game series to earn the series MVP award. He had hit an earlier home run against Atlanta in the NLDS and added one in the World Series against Texas for good measure. 

The Giants had picked up Ross, a little-known Florida Marlins outfielder, from the waiver scrap heap in late August. Although he hit five HR in the postseason, he had hit only 14 for the whole year. 

Ross was originally signed by Detroit, but he has played all but six of his 757 career games in the National League. He has been with five teams in the past eight seasons.

Ross, who made $6.3 million last year, was not offered arbitration by the Giants.

As Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote on MLB TradeRumors.com, Ross would have been better off hitting free agency a year ago instead of now. His numbers aren't that much different, but in 2011 the buzz is gone, and he doesn't get the bump this year for his postseason heroics.

Let’s look at the matrix:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

After a pretty good 2010 season, when he hit .269 (.288 with the Giants) with 28 doubles, 14 HR and 65 RBI, the 30-year-old outfielder regressed in 2011—as did many on the Giants roster. He hit just .240, with injuries at the start and close of the season that took him out of the lineup.

However, he is on a downward slide; his 2011 slugging percentage and OPS were also well below his career average.

He did raise his base-on-balls percentage, and showed his flexibility by playing all three outfield positions. To summarize:

162-game averages: 21 HR 79 RBI .261 BA

BA last three years: .270, .269, .240

Career slugging and OPS: .456, .779

2011 slugging and OPS: .405, .730

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .243

Career BA late in close games: .278

2011 numbers: .280 and .277

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

One hit in nine career at-bats.

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

Ross has hit poorly against both teams, albeit in only a handful of plate appearances.

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

With Ross as DH, the Red Sox would have outfield flexibility, since he is comfortable in all three positions.

Bottom Line

While Ross wanted a long-term extension with the Giants at the start of the 2011 season, that did not happen. It will certainly not happen now. Some team will probably take a flyer on him on a one-year deal—especially a team looking for a right-handed bat. Ross has hit relatively well in the clutch, and he has also done well against lefties in his career, compiling a .912 OPS against southpaws.  

Ross is not one of the better prospects for the Red Sox DH slot, although he might merit consideration as an outfielder off the bench.

9. Josh Willingham

Oakland Athletics left fielder Josh Willingham picked a great year to post career high numbers for home runs (29) and RBI (98). Of the available free agents, only Pujols, Fielder and Ortiz hit more home runs in 2011 than Willingham. Putting this in perspective, Aramis Ramirez hit 25 and Carlos Beltran hit 22.

Because of his power numbers (and a lifetime OPS of .836) the right-handed-hitting free agent is drawing a lot of attention in the free-agent market, with at least 10 teams reportedly inquiring about his services. 

The Red Sox are one of those teams, having already tried to do a deal with the A's for Willingham at the 2011 trading deadline.

Oakland offered Josh Willingham arbitration, and because of the new CBA, a team signing him will not have to forfeit a draft pick.  

He is seeking a three-year deal, however, and that might cause other teams pause, especially given concerns about his durability. Stephen Resnick of MLBSportsRant points out that he has not played in as many as 140 games since 2007, and in 2011 he missed a number of games due to an Achilles injury. 

Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com adds "…a slipping batting average and walk rate have his OBP at a career-worst .335, and his defense doesn't come highly regarded." 

Willingham will be 33 by the time the next season starts. Even so, there are probably several teams out there who are willing to trade his defensive shortcomings for the long-ball potential.

Let's see how he compares:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

Worth noting is that Willingham’s average was on the low side at .246 as well as his OBP of .332 and on the high side was his 150 strikeouts. To summarize:

162-game averages: 20 HR 82 RBI .272 BA

BA last three years: .260, .268, .246

Career slugging and OPS: .475, .836

2011 slugging and OPS: .477, .810

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .260

Career BA late in close games: .232

2011 numbers: .261 and .219

3. Career hitting in Fenway Park

.318 BA 1 HR 26 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .234 BA 2 HR 51 PA

Tampa: .262 BA 1 HR 100 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

With Willingham as DH, the Red Sox would have some versatility in National League parks because he is an experienced outfielder—albeit not one known for his defensive prowess. 

Bottom Line

Willingham doesn’t hit for a high average, he strikes out a lot and he has a declining on-base percentage. On the other hand, as Resnick points out, "…with runners in scoring position he hit .313, with 42 hits, 11 home runs, nine doubles and 72 RBI. Those numbers alone make him a valuable commodity on the free agent market."

Underlining this point, Willingham's OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position in  2011 was an unbelievable 1.002.

As far as money goes, I don't see the Red Sox doing a three-year deal for a DH, although estimates of what it will cost to land Willingham are certainly within Boston's price range. He signed a one-year, $6 million deal with Oakland for 2011, and some experts have predicted that he will end up signing a two-year, $16 million contract.

Blaine Blontz from CalltothePen.com reports that another element in play is location. Willingham's agent, Matt Sosnick, has said that his client is likely to choose a team “in the South or Midwest," primarily because his home is in Florence, Alabama.

10. Luke Scott

Baltimore Orioles 1B/DH Luke Scott had a pretty good year in 2010; he hit .284 with 27 home runs and 72 RBI. His slugging percentage of .535 was better than all but five other American League hitters, and his .902 OPS was up there as well. 

Unfortunately, 2011 was a lost season. He tried to play through a torn labrum, but was shut down in July for shoulder surgery. His numbers (.220 BA 9 HR 22 RBI) reflect that injury.

If he bounces back well from that operation (he is just now beginning to hit off a tee), he is another left-handed bat who could receive long-shot consideration as the Red Sox DH

Other factors would have to fall into place as well, but his health is paramount.

According to Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors.com, Scott is a disciplined and devoted offseason worker, and is expected to be ready for spring training next year.

The second factor is his contract situation. Scott, 33, played three years with Houston, and now four with Baltimore. He is fourth-year arbitration-eligible, and has been playing on a series of one-year deals through his arbitration-eligible years. As Dierkes reports, in 2011 he "beat the midpoint of his and the Orioles' submissions and received a $2.35MM increase, bringing his 2011 salary to $6.4MM."

Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com reports that it is likely that the Orioles will non-tender Scott in an effort to negotiate a more team-friendly deal. "There is also the very real possibility  that Scott could have played his last game in an Orioles uniform. Heading into his final year of arbitration eligibility Scott, who is making $6.4 million this season, could be a non-tender candidate given that he’s due to make more next season and could be a way for the Orioles to shed payroll," she wrote. 

So, how does he compare? 

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

Other than his forgettable 2011 season, his numbers have been trending generally upward in all categories.

His ability to hit with runners in scoring position remains suspect, however. Even in his career year of 2010, he hit only .214 in those situations. To summarize:

162-game averages: 26 HR 79 RBI .264 BA

BA 2008-2010: .257, .258, .284

Career slugging and OPS: .535, .902

2011 slugging and OPS: .494, .843

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .218

Career BA late in close games: .222

2011 numbers: .280 and .277

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.257 BA 1 HR 86 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .208 BA 1 HR 192 PA

Tampa: .227 BA 8 HR 198 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

Scott has played in the outfield as well as at first base, so the Red Sox would have some lineup flexibility in National League parks.

Bottom Line

The most intriguing aspect of this situation is that there are few free agents out there with Scott's slugging potential who would sign a one-year deal. The fact that he would probably be willing to take what he earned in 2011 ($6.5 million) causes me not to reject him as a candidate.

Of greater concern, Scott is also a controversial character whose views on politics and religion got him into trouble during the last offseason. 

I normally would not mention this, but given the drama of the Red Sox clubhouse I'm not sure the team would consider adding another potentially polarizing element.

Scott drew media attention away from last year's winter meetings through his interview with Yahoo!'s David Brown.

He ascribed President Obama's election victory to his promise of "free stuff" to those who voted for him. He also enthused about hunting and his gun collection, laughingly saying, "I've got a gun to kill elephants — a 458. I got a Weatherby Magnum — which is pretty much an anti-aircraft gun."

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun concludes, "Scott isn’t the most well-liked guy in the game because of how outspoken he is on religion and political issues."

11. Mark Reynolds

Under club control for two more seasons, slugging infielder Mark Reynolds could be an interesting trade prospect for a team so desperate for home run production (Pittsburgh?) that they could overlook his subpar defense.  

The other team that might kick the tires is the Red Sox, who would not have to play him in the field. While critics say his home runs aren't worth the strikeouts, errors and low batting average, what if you subtract the errors from that equation and use him as a DH? Besides, Reynolds is only 28, and he is affordable ($7.5 million in 2012 with an $11 million club option for 2013).

In 2010, Reynolds' stock was trading at an all-time low after he hit .198 with an OPS of .753 for Arizona. Even with that horrible average, however, he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 85. The year before, Reynolds had hit a respectable .260 and banged out 44 long balls. That power potential was enough for the Orioles to trade for him, giving up two young pitchers in the process. 

Dan Soderberg of Yahoo! Sports wrote, "[Reynolds] came with the reputation of hitting long home runs, striking out a ton and playing some shaky defense. He certainly lived up to his reputation."

Reynolds owns three of the first four spots on the all-time single-season strikeout leaderboard, thanks to consecutive seasons of 204, 211 and 223 K's (2008-2010). 

His improvement to 196 strikeouts in the 2011 season is good for ninth on that list. He and Jim Thome are now the only players to lead both leagues in strikeouts.

However, he was also Baltimore's team leader with 37 HR, 86 RBI, 75 walks, 84 runs scored and an OPS of .806. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun points out that the 37 home runs was good for a tie for 10th place on the all-time franchise HR list.

He is a polarizing, boom-or-bust hitter who reminds me of Dave Kingman, another boom-or-bust slugger who confounded the National League in the 1970s and early 1980s. 

"King Kong" was a productive and successful hitter for 16 seasons, and his lifetime 162-game average stat line is eerily close to that of Reynolds: 

Kingman: 37 HR 101 RBI .236 BA

Reynolds: 36 HR 97 RBI .238 BA

Kingman was loudly criticized for his strikeouts and low average early in his career, just like Reynolds. But he finally pulled it together in his eighth season, after going to the Cubs in 1978.

Early returns suggest that Reynolds has an even greater upside. He has hit 168 HR in his first five seasons; Kingman had only 113. 

OK, let’s look at the matrix:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

Reynolds is an all-or-nothing hitter. While his average has fluctuated wildly, his home run and RBI numbers have been pretty consistent. So have the strikeouts.

More importantly, he is still only 28, and has only had five big league seasons under his belt. To summarize:

162-game averages: 36 HR 97 RBI .238 BA

BA last three years: .260, .198, .221

Career slugging and OPS: .483, .815

2011 slugging and OPS: .483, .806

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .239

Career BA late in close games: .204

2011 numbers: .270 and .286

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.209 BA 3 HR 46 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .264 BA 7 HR 102 PA

Tampa: .147 BA 3 HR 79 PA

5. Potential impact of interleague play

Connolly writes, "…while Mark Reynolds may be better than advertised at the plate, his defense is hard to watch at times."

This would give the Red Sox second thoughts about playing him in the field in National League parks—although he can play third in addition to first. 

Bottom Line

Having played only with the D-Backs before last season, Reynolds has never been a DH and has made it no secret he'd prefer to play the field.

Would Red Sox Nation tolerate an absurdly high strikeout total in exchange for the run production?

The last Red Sox player to lead league in strikeouts was Mark Bellhorn, with 177 in 2004. But he hit .264, and helped win the World Series. In the ALCS he hit only .192 and struck out 11 times against the Yankees, but he hit two big home runs to help turn the tide, and today few people remember the strikeouts.

Yes, Reynolds is a long-shot candidate, but based on the above it is not a ridiculous scenario.

12. Kevin Youkilis

Other than Ortiz, the best internal option for DH would appear to be Kevin Youkilis.

No one plays the game harder than Youk, and I would hate to have to play against him. But the way he plays the game has also taken a toll on his body, as the series of recent injuries shows.

This injury issue is not isolated to 2011. As Ricky Doyle of NESN.com points out, "Lost in the constant attack on J.D. Drew is that he only played in three fewer games than Kevin Youkilis (528 to 525) from 2007-2010."

Long-term he needs to play first base or DH to keep his body from breaking down. He is certainly no slouch as a first baseman, either; after all, until recently he held the major league record for most consecutive errorless games (238) at first base (broken by Casey Kotchman). 

However, first base is not going to happen in Boston with Adrian Gonzales there.

Youk will be 33 in March, and for a player of his caliber, he is relatively affordable at $12 million for 2012. This the fourth and final year of a contract he signed in 2009, although there is a $13 million team option for 2013 with a $1 million buyout. He also has serious credibility; at the start of last season he was 35th on the Sporting News list of the 50 greatest current baseball players.

So, how does he stack up against the other DH candidates?

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

From 2008 to 2010, Youkilis hit a very consistent .312, .305 and .307, with equally consistent slugging percentages and OPS, averaging .560 and .965 respectively. In 2011, nagging injuries drastically affected his production. He will be young enough (33) to come back to his earlier levels assuming he is healthy. To summarize:

162-game averages: 23 HR 98 RBI .289 BA

BA last three years: .305, .307, .258

Career slugging and OPS: .492, .883

2011 slugging and OPS: .459, .833

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .310

Career BA late in close games: .265

2011 numbers: .280 and .277

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.305 BA 63 HR 1,902 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: .313 BA 12 HR 407 PA

Tampa: .243 BA 13 HR, 431 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

If Youkilis were the DH, the Red Sox would not necessarily lose his bat in National League parks, so long as they played him at third base.

Bottom Line

His consistent batting and slugging numbers, his off-the-charts clutch hitting and his effectiveness against the Yankees are all good reasons to consider him strongly as the next Red Sox DH. 

There is also little question that taking him out of the infield will extend his career. The more basic question is whether he can be equally effective in the part-time role the DH plays. He has only been the DH for six games in his career, and in that limited sample his numbers were consistent.

So, the Red Sox appear to have two choices: Make Youk the DH, or include him in a deal that will bring back a starting pitcher. There are a number of pitching-rich teams out there in need of a power-hitting first baseman—a role Youkilis could certainly fulfill.

Youk is the best (and most expendable) trade chip the Red Sox have, which might work against using him as the DH in Boston.

13. Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko is not normally included in this type of list because there has been little indication of his potential availability through trade. He is a mainstay of the White Sox, their captain and spiritual leader. He has been with the Pale Hose since 1999, and after flirting with free agency at the end of 2010 he signed a three-year, $37.5 million deal to stay in Chicago.

Having said all that, MLB.com's Scott Merkin has suggested that the White Sox might trade Konerko—and that Konerko might waive his no-trade clause for the right situation.

That situation may come up because of the White Sox' decision to retool with younger players for the future. While that plan in itself would not cause Konerko to agree to leave, it might if the retooling caused the White Sox to rebuild for a couple of years before seriously competing for another championship.

Also, Dayan Viciedo, the future first baseman for the White Sox, is already waiting in the wings. Moving Konerko might not be as unrealistic as it may seem at first glance; an aging but still productive veteran such as Konerko could bring several young prospects to Chicago in a trade.

Konerko told Merkin he would have to listen if White Sox ownership approached him about a potential move. "You always listen to things on the table," Konerko said. "If [they] were to call and say, 'This is what we are doing and the road we are going to go, what do you think,' you listen to it all and make a decision.” 

"We're more open to making potential moves that take us a little younger, take us a step back and live to fight another day if we can get what we've identified as the type of targets you want in such a deal," Williams said. 

Chicago Tribune reporter Mark Gonzales spoke with Chicago GM Ken Williams: "We're not going to make moves unless we get an impact player or impact-type prospects, guys who are close to being ready," Williams said.

Boston might be the ideal landing spot for Konerko. Williams wants “major league-ready talent” in any deals he does, and the Red Sox do have players that fit that bill. They would be especially motivated to do such a deal if Big Papi signed elsewhere.

From Konerko’s perspective, coming to Boston would give him a much better shot at winning another World Series within the next couple of years. He was also born in Providence, RI, only about 40 miles from the Green Monster. He has hit well in Fenway as a visiting player, and idea of hitting there 81 times a year might be appealing enough for him to approve such a move.

Let’s look at the matrix:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

A lifetime .282 hitter, Konerko has batted .312 and .300 the last two seasons. His 2011 results showed excellent production in the first season of the three-year, $37.5 million deal he signed last offseason: 31 HR, 105 RBI, .300 BA. This was only a slight drop-off from his monster 2010 season.

He is the DH about 25 percent of the time in Chicago now, and his batting splits are about the same as when he plays in the field. To summarize:

162-game averages: 32 HR 102 RBI .282 BA

BA last three years: .277, .312, .300

Career slugging and OPS: .500, .858

2011 slugging and OPS: .517, .906

2. Clutch Hitting

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .240

Career BA late in close games: .272

2011 numbers: .290 and .345

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.305 BA 7 HR 180 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays

New York: . 318 BA 20 HR 364 PA

Tampa: .284 BA 6 HR 382 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

With Konerko as DH, the Red Sox would have the same problem as they do with Ortiz: Play the DH, or play first baseman Adrian Gonzales. Although Konerko did play a little outfield and a little 3B earlier in his career, he has been a 1B/DH since 2000.

Bottom Line

Konerko will be 36 in March, but shows no signs of slowing down or breaking down. He is locked up for the next two years at $12 million for 2012 and $13.5 million in 2013 (with $7 million deferred at $1 million per year through 2020). Those numbers are similar to what David Ortiz might get in a two-year deal.

His numbers against the Yankees and Rays are comparable to Ortiz, as are his 162-game stats for HR, RBI and average. His career slugging and OPS are better than Big Papi’s.

Konerko is six months younger than Ortiz, and has greater running and fielding abilities.

Konerko would be a very strong candidate to DH in Boston.

14. David Ortiz

In 2011, Ortiz was by far the best designated hitter in baseball. 

The average batting average for a DH was .266. Ortiz hit .309. The average DH on-base percentage was .341. Papi’s was .398. The average DH slugging percentage was .430. Ortiz? .554. 

No DH in the last three years equaled his .953 OPS this year.

Defying normal trends, Big Papi's WAR (value above replacement) numbers for the past three years have trended upwards: 0.3, 2.6, 4.2.

Here's how he does in the matrix:

1. Overall Hitting and Slugging Trend for the Past Three Years

Ortiz has made an amazing renaissance over the past three years. His numbers in just about every category have gone up significantly, to the point where he is now exceeding his career averages in batting, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS.

Not only that, but his strikeout rate in 2011 was a career-best 13.4 percent; a five-point improvement over 2010. His batting average on balls in play was .321, a 40-point increase from 2010, while his overall BA of .309 followed a .257 just a year before.

John Autin of High Heat Stats has done a very good analysis of the hitters whose production increased (and decreased) the most in 2011. Ortiz ranked 10th in the majors in improvement over the previous year; Matt Kemp was 11th.

To be fair, his home runs and RBIs are lower than his career averages (30 vs. 35 and 99 vs. 118), but they are still well above the league average for DHs. To summarize:

162-game averages: 35 HR 118 RBI .283 BA

BA last three years: .238, .270, .309

Career slugging and OPS: .544, .922

2011 slugging and OPS: .554, .953

2. Clutch Hitting:

Career BA with two outs and runners in scoring position: .280

Career BA late in close games: .265

2011 numbers: .209 and .288

3. Career Hitting in Fenway Park

.310 BA 151 HR 2,871 PA

4. Career Hitting against the Yankees and Rays:

New York: .303 BA 36 HR 741 PA

Tampa: .285 BA 31 HR 718 PA

5. Potential Impact of Interleague Play

Now that Adrian Gonzales is on the team, having Ortiz as the DH does give the Red Sox fits in National League parks, because they really have to sit one or the other—much to the team's detriment, as they learned in 2011.

Bottom Line

The Red Sox offered arbitration to Ortiz, and made him a contract offer, which he must accept or reject by December 7. 

Joe McDonald of ESPNBoston.com quoted Ortiz as saying, "If the Red Sox sign me right now they won't regret (it)," Ortiz added. "I've got so many ways to keep doing what I've been doing around here. I bring so much to this organization, I bring so much to the table here because I care so much about this organization."

Underscoring that statement, prior to Game 2 of the World Series Ortiz received the Roberto Clemente Award, which honors one player every year who has made a significant contribution to the community.

Conclusion: The Red Sox Should Re-Sign Ortiz.

Guys like Mike Cuddyer and Josh Willingham and Carlos Quentin can fill the position—but they cannot match Ortiz’ production numbers. 

Carlos Beltran, Aramis Ramirez and others can also play the field, which will make them more valuable to other teams seeking two-way players. That will price them out of the DH market.

David Ortiz is one of the few effective DHs who doesn't play in the field. There is no comparable replacement out there. He is also arguably the most beloved Red Sox player in the last 20 years. Big Papi was a critical component of two championship squads and is arguably the face of the franchise.

Yes, he’s another left-handed bat in a lineup short of right-handed power. Yes, he had a below-average September, as did most of his teammates. Yes, his interruption of Terry Francona’s press conference to complain about an official scorer decision was stupid and selfish. And yes, he struck a nerve with Red Sox Nation by saying that he might consider playing for the Yankees (perhaps bringing back the painful memories of Luis Tiant in pinstripes after his eight years in Boston during the 1970s). 

But all of that pales into insignificance in the face of one fact: In 2011, Ortiz was by far the best designated hitter in baseball. And, at the end of the day, he stated that his choice would be to return to Boston.

The biggest risk for the Red Sox is his age and durability. Ortiz turns 36 in November. But who else out there is a better risk?

No one.

So long as he avoids serious injury, Ortiz should be able to produce for two more years. He made $12.5 million this past season, and the Red Sox should make every effort to sign him.

Follow-up Question: What Is the Fallback Position if Ortiz Does Sign with Another Team?

The most logical answer is to move Kevin Youkilis to the DH slot, and fill the third base position by mixing and matching internally or getting a serviceable third baseman in a trade. I would not sign Aramis Ramirez to play third base.

If for some reason the Red Sox decide to trade Youkilis for a starting pitcher, I would then make every effort to do a trade with the White Sox for Paul Konerko. (Maybe the same trade!)

If none of those options work out, I would have a DH by committee for the next year, using a combination of Matt Murton and whatever other outfielder may be signed to play/platoon in right field.