NFL Power Rankings Week 12: Analyzing 2011's Best Surprises

I have the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers as the NFL's biggest surprises this season.

It's time to take a closer look at these shocking upstarts—how they got to where they are today and what we can expect as we enter the final six games of the regular season.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals weren't given much of a chance this season, starting a rookie quarterback with a rookie wide receiver as the No. 1 option in the passing game.

At 6-4, they're currently in the AFC playoffs.

They've done it with efficient play from Andy Dalton, my new pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, who hasn't been dominating, but he's put his team in a position to win nearly every week. A.J. Green has a lot to do with Dalton's success, too.

Green has made the transition to the pro game more rapidly than most rookie wideouts.

Their defense has probably been the biggest reason they're 6-4 today and will most likely determine their postseason fate.

Mike Zimmer's unit is currently ranked sixth in the NFL in terms of yards allowed—they surrender less than 90 yards a game on the ground and are 11th against the pass.

Their next three games against the Browns, Steelers and Texans will make or break their season, in my estimation.

Without Leon Hall, the defense isn't as stout against the pass, but they should be able to get to at least nine wins, thanks to games against the Rams and Cardinals after their critical three-game stretch. 

Detroit Lions 

The Lions were on the radar to be one of the league's surprising teams to start the year, and they've delivered this season. 

Matthew Stafford hasn't been as consistent as he was to start the year, but he's certainly shown the uncanny ability to lead his team back from significant deficits. 

I'm a little surprised with Detroit's defense. 

I thought they'd be a little better against the run (135 yards allowed a game), and the secondary is exceeding many of the expectations I had for them to start the year. 

The key will be their running game. 

If Kevin Smith can be the productive back they've been searching for all season, they'll be difficult to stop—especially with the constant threat of Calvin Johnson on the outside. 

Their remaining schedule kicks off with a showdown at home against the Packers. They also play Green Bay to end the season. Two road trips to New Orleans and Oakland will decide their season. 

San Francisco 49ers 

Not as much to say about San Francisco. They aren't as flashy.

But you know what? It doesn't matter. They play an old-school brand of football, and they're 9-1.

Similar to the Bengals, their defense is the most important factor in their amazing eight-game winning streak, but quarterback Alex Smith has limited mistakes and has made the right decisions when it has mattered most.

Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are the best linebacking tandem in the NFC (sorry Urlacher and Briggs), and Frank Gore is the steady force on offense.

Don't forget about Vernon Davis—a tight end that's come on strong of late.

15-1 or 14-2 is very possible for San Fran. 

This week's Harbaugh Bowl on Thanksgiving and a home game against the Steelers are the 49ers' only real tough tests remaining.

Week 12 Power Rankings

1. Green Bay Packers (10-0)	17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)	18. Tennessee Titans (5-5)
3. New Orleans Saints (7-3)	19. San Diego Chargers (4-6)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)	20. Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
5. New England Patriots (7-3)	21. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)	22. Seattle Seahawks (4-6)
7. Chicago Bears (7-3)	23. Cleveland Browns (4-6)
8. Houston Texans (7-3)	24. Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
9. New York Giants (6-4)	25. Miami Dolphins (3-7)
10. Detroit Lions (7-3)	26. Kansas City Chiefs (4-6)
11. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)	27. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)	28. Minnesota Vikings (2-8)
13.  Oakland Raiders (6-4)	29. Washington Redskins (3-7)
14. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)	30. Carolina Panthers (2-8)
15.  New York Jets (5-5)	31. St. Louis Rams (2-8)
16. Denver Broncos (5-5)	32. Indianapolis Colts (0-10)