MLB Free Agents 2012: 10 Ways the NY Mets Are Better off without Jose Reyes

The big story for the New York Mets this past season was Jose Reyes. Without a doubt, he's the most dynamic player on their roster.

With his departure a possibility—he's now officially a free agent—the Mets must take a hard look and ask themselves if he's worth retaining.

After all, the Miami Marlins have given him a tour and rumors are flying around about a contract offer there.

Other teams may be kicking the tires too and soon, no doubt.

The window for deciding if the Mets are all in on the Reyes' sweepstakes or not is closing. They have to decide very quickly. Make an offer or stay out of it.

The immediate answer as to whether he is worth retaining is, "yes, that's a no-brainer."

But in order to come up with a reasonable and rational answer to that question, it's not enough to see his potential and positives. One has to realize the negatives as well.

By weighing the pros and cons of the situation, Mets GM Sandy Alderson can come up with the solution that's best for the team in the long run.

With that said, let's take a look at several factors that make it just possible the Mets would be better off by not having his services for the next five or six years.

Finances vs. Team Needs

The Mets are not in the spending mood this holiday season. In fact, they seem more like mean Mr. Scrooge than jolly St. Nick and with good reason.

After making deals to raise $140 million to pay their debts, they are still in the hole by $60 million.

That's right. They owed $200 million before this past season even ended. They just don't have the money to spend on a player that would demand a big payday.

And here's why. It's reported the Mets plan to only spend between $100-110 million for their total payroll next year.

Most of that is tied up into a handful of players (Johan Santana, David Wright and Jason Bay). Their payroll flexibility is in jeopardy as it is. This wouldn't be an issue if this team didn't have so many needs.

They need to replace Chris Capuano and get another starter, even if Santana is healthy.

They also need a closer. This is their biggest priority. They need bullpen help as well. They may need a catcher to back up Josh Thole or take the reigns of this pitching staff.

They will need to fill up their bench as well.

That's at least seven players this team is in need of just to take the field next year, let alone to be competitive. With more than half the salaries tied up in a few people, how can they afford to spend another big chunk of money and still expect to get all these needs filled?

It can't happen. 

Durability

There have been comparisons to Rickey Henderson when talking about Jose Reyes and his potential. The truth is, he's the best leadoff hotter in all of baseball.

When he's healthy. That's an important phrase.

The fact is he has not been consistently healthy from wire to wire in a season since 2008, when he played 159 games.

Since then, it's been 36 games in 2009, 133 in 2010 and 126 this past season. The man is getting older.

His body will no doubt be feeling the effects of a full-season grind much more evidently than it did in the past. Perhaps, this is what's so inviting to him about Miami—the weather allows for less nagging aches and pains as the season progresses.

His biggest injury has been his hamstrings. For a player built for the speed game, that's a big issue. How often can he come back at top speed from yet another injury?

Time will tell, but eventually the speed will be gone. Injuries will hasten that departure.

In the case of Henderson—and Tim Raines for that matter—they never had traumatic injuries that called their careers into question. They slowly lost a step over many years until they just weren't at top speed anymore.

This is not the case with Reyes. It is apparent he's on the cusp of losing his acceleration in the next few years because of his age and health history.

If the Mets signed him to an extended deal and were stuck with another player on the DL for a year at a time (like Johan Santana currently), the backlash would crumble the team.

Right now, everyone is saying he needs to be signed at any cost. But what if he signs, gets hurt in spring training and then is lost for a year-and-a-half?

Would it be a wise investment then?

The job of a GM is not only to balance the roster from a financial standpoint, it's also to predict trends and see what the fans don't see. It would be irresponsible of Alderson to ignore this very real danger.

Defensive Cohesiveness

Let's forget for a minute about the fact Jose Reyes is a solid arm in the field. Rather, let's take a brief look at what's going on just to his left at second base.

If Reyes stays, there will be three players (Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner and Reuben Tejada) vying for one position.

If Daniel Murphy wins the battle due to his bat, the defense will suffer. They will therefore need a leader in the infield on a regular basis.

Should Tejada or Turner win out, they would benefit from a consistent shortstop by their side, not just for leadership but for the sake of reliability and stability on defense.

The Mets have to platoon at second base, but the platoon plan is contingent on the stability of the shortstop position. They need to have one guy they can count on for that infield communication and teamwork.

Suppose Reyes gets hurt (which isn't too far-fetched). What happens to that communication and that teamwork? Tejada moves to short and has to adjust to not only a new position, but a new double-play partner.

The cohesiveness is gone. The defense suffers as an immediate result. The truth is this is a very real scenario if the Mets re-sign Reyes.

Sure, this could happen to any player, but with Reyes, the injuries are piling up.  

Defensive Range

Jose Reyes has never won a Gold Glove for his dynamic play on defense. He has been an All-Star four times, but that's almost completely due to his offense.

Make no mistake—he's a solid defender, though not without the potential to make some errors.

In fact, he posted as many as 18 errors this past season to tie a career mark. His speed allows him to get to many balls that an average fielder would not be able to get to.

That helps him make plays more frequently but also allows for more opportunity to commit errors.

Perhaps, this is why his errors were so high this year. He has solid range now, in the prime of his career. But like his health, his range will begin to deteriorate.

The same speed that is missing on the base paths in a few years will be the same speed that eventually will not get to the hole in time to knock down grounders for force-outs at second.

Those types of things add up.

He will certainly lose his range as his body continues to break down. When he does break down, it will hurt much more than one position or one game. It will affect games at a time as the entire defense loses confidence.

That's a dangerous combination for the mediocre pitching staff they have right now or the young staff they will eventually develop in the near future.

Those errors will mount and they will turn into losses as a result. Then, his range, or lack thereof, will matter. 

Offensive Continuity

Jose Reyes is an offensive weapon. There's no question he's a force on the basepaths and at the plate when he's healthy. Again, that's the important phrase.

Allow me to pose the same scenario as I did a few slides ago but in a different perspective.

Suppose the Mets re-sign Reyes to a multi-year contract. He's locked in as their leadoff hitter and all is going well. Then, one day, he pulls a hamstring and is gone for three quarters of the season.

The Mets, over the longer term, would still be stuck with that contract. But in the short term, who takes over as the leadoff. Angel Pagan? We all know how well he did there.

Pagan had a .262 batting average this season while being shuffled between the leadoff and batting sixth. He is not the answer. He has the speed, as evidenced by his 32 stolen bases, but he is not the on-base percentage type this team needs to fill in for any length of time should Reyes go down.

That hurts the lineup. All of a sudden, a middle-of-the-order-guy is at the top.

The second hitter is usually batting with one out in his first at-bat in that case, because the leadoff hitter is up there hacking and rarely does that lead to success.

Then, the fifth hitter has no protection behind him and doesn't get a good pitch. Therefore, he makes an out in a key moment. That affects two spots because of one player.

All that could be avoided by not signing Reyes in the first place and working on the leadoff plan in spring training.

Losing Reyes for an extended amount of time and seeing this scenario play out is a very real possibility.

He played 125 games this year. He missed 37 games. That's a quarter of the year. Even with that, he won the batting title. That's the amazing potential he has.

Yet, he also has the potential to be on the DL for stretches at a time. Not a good mix. High risk for high reward.

That's a risk Sandy Alderson may not be willing to take to preserve a healthy and productive lineup.

Not an Alderson Guy

New York Mets GM Sandy Alderson is an avid believer in the money ball system. He looks for talent in stats for cheaper prices. One stat he lives by is on-base percentage.

When it comes to a prototypical leadoff man, OBP has to matter.

For the Mets, it has not mattered for far too long. Jose Reyes has shown so many great sparks of being that type of player. One that can work a count and draw a walk if there is nothing good to hit. A hitter that can allow the rest of the team to see the opposing pitcher's entire arsenal.

Just when you think Reyes has turned that corner, he goes back to being a first pitch-hacking slap-hitter.

His career average is .292, and his career OBP is .341. Those aren't horrible, but they are not elite leadoff hitter numbers.

They are better than Jimmy Rollins (.272 AVG/329 OBP) but not better than Jacoby Ellsbury (.301 AVG/.354 OBP).

Both those players are considered to be comparable hitters to Reyes.

He gets stolen bases when he gets on, but the trouble has been getting on. He makes far too many fly-ball outs and strikeouts for a leadoff man. His strikeouts (one per every 13 at-bats) and fly-ball outs (0.82 ground-outs to fly-outs ratio) were down last year in a career year, but that's most likely a good stretch of seasons than it's a trend.

The fact is he averages 79 strikeouts a season in his nine years in the majors. That's not the small ball Sandy Alderson way. That's not how this current Mets team is looking to improve in their new ballpark.

They want to have hitters they know will get on base in any way possible, who will make something happen when they are there.

Unless Alderson thinks Reyes will get on consistently in the next few years like he did this past year, it is doubtful they will take a chance on a big contract for that inefficiency.

This Is Not the Omar Era

When the Mets ownership decided to fire Omar Minaya a little over a year ago, they were making a statement. They were no longer spending big money on players that had questionable health issues and/or streaky performance potential.

Players like Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo were major roadblocks to the Mets for a few years due to their enormous and undeserved contracts.

Perez was a constant distraction, as he could not find his way back from mediocrity and refused a minor league stint. Similarly, Castillo was injured frequently but still collecting his checks from the Mets.

The Mets hired a GM who knows how to build a team on a long-term basis. To build for the future and do it as inexpensively as possible. Enter Sandy Alderson, who was the architect of the San Diego Padres and Oakland A's for several years.

Neither team broke the bank for average talent. They only spent money on extended contracts for exceptional players.

Jose Reyes is an exceptional player, but he also fits into the criteria of what the Omar Minaya era would have signed. The Mets still have one such player on their roster in Jason Bay. There were some questions of his game translating to Citi Field.

Those questions were valid. He has been terrible. But he's a perfect example of a talented player who has probably peaked and is beginning a downward trend.

Alderson would not have made that deal for Bay.

In the same reasoning that Bay should not have been offered that huge sum, the same could be said for Jose Reyes.

This is the perfect example of an Omar Minaya signing. A player at his peak and about to hit a downward trend, who has been riddled with injuries.

Minaya often took a gamble on these players hoping to squeeze a few good years out of them. In some cases he succeeded—in most cases, he didn't.

If Alderson wants to succeed here, he has to take this old mindset into consideration.

I'm not saying by signing one player (no matter how good he is) to a big contract that the Mets are taking a step backward. Rather, the contract situation with Jose Reyes has been very similar to those past failures.

All signs point to a bad contract. Too many of those will cost Alderson a job. 

Time to Move on from the Old Core

The Mets have needed a change internally for a while now. Their personnel has become stagnant. Their roster has become predictable. The names have changed, but the concept and core are still there.

Let's take a look at this core. David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Pedro Martinez.

How successful was this core? They got to within one strike from being in the World Series. One time.

Beyond that, they've never made the playoffs. In fact, they collapsed in late September two different times. The Mets realized it was time to move on.

They let Delgado and Martinez walk in free agency. They traded Beltran just this past July.

Now there are two—Wright and Reyes. Wright is still here for another couple of years (unless they decide to trade him). Jose Reyes is a free agent. This team let Carlos Delgado and Pedro Martinez walk in free agency.

They could be more than willing to do the same for Reyes and cut their losses in order to move on from the Omar Minaya regime and the core he set in place.

If they were wise, they would cut him loose and start all over with just Wright. He's a better option for a leader for these younger players.

Reyes is talented but is the face of the highly unsuccessful "New Mets" that Minaya preached so many years ago. It's time for a change. Let Alderson build a new "New Mets" team around his vision.

You never know—it might just work. Even without Reyes.

Too Much Showboating

There's a certain mentality in professional sport that says a player has to celebrate everything.

An NFL receiver catches a first down at midfield late in the fourth quarter when his team is down by 20 points, and it's time to party!

An NBA player shoots a three-pointer with under three minutes to go with his team is trailing by 25 points, so it's time to dance and beat his chest!

The notion that this is passion is ridiculous. It's one thing to have passion and enjoy playing your chosen sport.

It's another thing entirely to taunt and showboat your accomplishments in any and every given situation.

Baseball is different from these other sports. If a player watches his own home run from the batter's box for an extra second, he's showing the pitcher up.

Next plate appearance, he can expect one high and inside. There is a balance.

In the case of Jose Reyes, he celebrates every little thing.

Hit by a pitch? Time to hoot and holler. Gets a seeing-eye single? Applaud like it's the biggest thing you've ever done. Hit a double when your team is down by six runs in the eighth inning? Time to beat your chest and raise your fist to the sky.

It's absurd and over the top. Teams get angry over it. The clubhouse antics of Reyes and other Mets players were a big motivator to teams like the then Florida Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies.

What came of all the chest pounding and excessive celebrations? Nothing.

Not a thing was gained by overindulging in the waters of passion. In baseball, it takes a focused love for the game to succeed at a high level. No one can say the St. Louis Cardinals don't love the game of baseball or lacked passion.

Yet they didn't go overboard when congratulating one another on something good, regardless of the situation.

Jose Reyes needs this as a part of his game. If he plays with uninhibited emotion, what will the younger players around him learn? More of the same, obviously.

Then, eventually, the Mets will be in position to once again be the most targeted team in baseball because of the excess celebrations.

Is that a road this team wants to continue down? 

He Is Not a Leader

The Mets are young and rebuilding. With Jose Reyes becoming a free agent, the team is at a crossroads. They can continue to stay the course and re-sign him, or they can make it known they are changing direction.

The young players need a leader. Someone to lead by example on and off the field. Let's define the term leader for a minute.

A leader is someone that goes to the manager when a player has been traded and tells him the team is not giving up.

A leader is someone who calls closed door meetings for players only to kick them in the teeth for poor play.

A leader is someone who, when you think of the team, you think of that player.

A leader is someone who stays to answer all the criticism the media offers when the team just saw a multiple-game lead in the division evaporate. He will show his emotion, but he's what the other players aspire to be.

Any of this fit Jose Reyes? Nope. In fact, when the Mets blew their division lead in 2007, Reyes was running out the back door and avoiding the tough questions like everyone else.

Did Reyes go to Terry Collins and tell him man-to-man the team is not going to fold because Beltran and K-Rod were gone?

No. That wasn't Reyes. All these things were done but not by Reyes. They were done quietly and without fanfare by David Wright.

Say what you want about Wright's struggles and the high energy of Reyes—the fact is Reyes has rarely shown the qualities of a leader off the field.

That's all Wright does. Fans get on him for not showing passion. He takes it in. Fans and media get on him for not hitting home runs. He takes it in. Fans and media get on him for playing hurt. He takes it in.

The man shows his emotion at the right time. The man plays through pain because the team needs him on the field for more than his bat.

David Wright is a leader. He is the leader this team needs moving forward. As long as Jose Reyes is in that clubhouse, the younger and more impressionable players are getting mixed signals.

That hurts the manager, the team unity and the play on the field.

I'm not saying Jose Reyes is a bad guy. Far from it. But he's not the leader this team needs.