SF 49ers: Why They Should Not Try To Beat the Arizona Cardinals

Let me rephrase. Of course, the San Francisco 49ers should try to beat the Arizona Cardinals. They just shouldn’t try.

After last week’s victory over the New York Giants, the San Francisco 49ers accomplished two things. First, they silenced a lot of doubters by proving that they could defeat a legitimate NFC contender (as if the comeback against the Detroit Lions was not significant enough). Second, they essentially put themselves in a position to clinch their division this weekend if the chips fall correctly.

The first thing is terrific. The second thing is a bit more complicated. Obviously, it will be wonderful for the 49ers if they are able to celebrate a division title for the first time in what feels like a century.  But they will clinch eventually; it’s more a matter of when.

Clinching the division with six games to play often leads to a team playing somewhat more conservatively, frequently resulting in decreased effectiveness in the playoffs. For those who doubt this statement, take a look at the 2007 and 2009 seasons and postseasons.

The goal of the San Francisco 49ers (and any contending football team) is not to win a division title. It’s to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in February.

This upcoming Thursday on prime time, the 49ers face the Baltimore Ravens. Outside of their game against the Pittsburgh, this game represents the last regular-season test for the soon-to-be NFC West champions. The Harbaugh brothers will duel in what very well could materialize into a Super Bowl preview.

With that in mind, how wise would it be to potentially endanger the already hobbled Frank Gore by sending him up the middle with 20 carries against the 3-6 Arizona Cardinals knowing that, with only three off days to spare, your team will have to go up against the only defensive comparable to your own?

Now, I am not suggesting that the 49ers try to lose. I do not believe that there are any NFL athletes who would be comfortable trying to lose or give less than their best on any down.

But there are coaches who will smartly rest their starters or give them limited action to keep them fresh for the games that truly matter. They are frequently called champions.

San Francisco should have little difficulty in dispatching Arizona even without Frank Gore. Look for Alex Smith to have one of his best passing games of the season against one of the worst pass defenses in the National Football League. But if that fails, there is simply no need to wear the team out in the process.

Ideally, the 49ers will go up big around halftime. They will then be in position to let Frank Gore take a rest and maybe even get Colin Kaepernick in on a few series to get his feet wet.

If that does not manage to happen, though, and the 49ers end up falling behind to Arizona, it would not make much sense to endanger their chances to make a deep playoff run or suffer a potentially devastating loss to the Baltimore Ravens three days later. The reduced off-time exponentially increases the likelihood of injuries.  

Make no mistake about it. The 49ers are going to win the NFC West. They will host a home playoff game. They can even lose on Sunday and still be in position to secure a first-round bye. But without all their weapons intact, they will likely be one-and-done in January.

Thanksgiving Night could be a Super Bowl preview but only with judicious personnel decisions made this Sunday.