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New England Patriots Defense Will Not Keep Them from Winning AFC East

Erik FrenzNov 16, 2011

Just a week ago, the question was whether the New England Patriots would win the AFC East. Now, the question is by how much.

The main fear was that the defense—which, in the immortal words of Bart Scott, couldn't stop a nose bleed—would hold them back.

The Patriots were one of the league's worst pass defenses last year, but they have been even worse this year. Whenever people bring up the stats—dead last in total defense and passing defense, primarily—the collective eyes of Patriots fans roll into the back of their head.

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The defense has improved already, but their competition figures to get easier from here.

Even in spite of the game-winning drive composed by Eli Manning in Week 9, the Patriots defense did a mighty fine job of holding him to just 51.3 percent completions and a 77.9 passer rating on the day. Just for a basis of comparison, he has completed 63.1 percent of his passes and compiled a 97.0 passer rating thus far in 2011, so they were able to hold him off his game for the most part.

And obviously they took huge steps forward against Sanchez, whom they were able to hold to 51.3 percent completions and a 64.7 passer rating. He has posted a 56.7 completion percentage and an 81.5 passer rating—neither are great, or even good, but the Patriots held him below both numbers.

Things could get a bit better in the coming weeks, though. And if New England's competition for the final seven games of the season is any indication, it should get a lot better.

The Patriots have a pretty favorable schedule coming up, especially in the form of some cupcake offenses that haven't struck much fear into the heart of defenses. Of course, we know the Patriots have made some pretty inferior quarterbacks look like quality starters in the NFL, but the string of sub-par passers they face should help them glide right into another AFC East championship.

There's an obvious drop-off after the Giants game, and it began with an easy win over the Mark Sanchez-led Jets. From here, the sailing only gets smoother. In the final seven games of the season, the collective passer rating of the teams New England will face is 73.7. For the first nine, it was a whopping 84.3.

There are still seven games left for the first nine opponents to decrease and the final seven to increase. Considering the quarterbacks coming up on the schedule, though, it doesn't seem too likely to happen, even with New England on the schedule.

Tyler Palko is first up on the list. The journeyman has seen it all, from the UFL to the CFL to the NFL (all in one season, and in that order) and everything in between. One thing he has yet to do is start an NFL game, and he'll have a tall order against a New England defense that's been improving in several areas on defense.

Curtis Painter has become synonymous with the "Suck for Luck" campaign in Indianapolis. Believe it or not, his passer rating has actually gotten worse since his first game back in Week 3. He posted a lofty 115.8 passer rating against the Chiefs, and has had below a 51 passer rating four straight weeks.

Needless to say, the Colts vs. Pats matchup won't carry the usual hype and hooplah of a Brady vs. Manning showdown.

The Dolphins? They were in the running for "Suck for Luck," but they're just lucky they have some semblance of a defense because they'd be right next to the Colts with a zero in the wins column otherwise.

As for Tim Tebow, if the Patriots can stop the run, they should be fine. There's not really much more to say about shutting him down—except, of course, to make sure you have a comfortable lead in the fourth quarter, because no matter how bad he looks those first three, "he's a winner."

The only quarterbacks left on the schedule that pose a real threat are Michael Vick and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Vick has injured ribs, and may not be ready to go in 10 days. Fitzpatrick started hot, but has cooled off quick and has thrown two touchdowns against five interceptions in Buffalo's last two games, both losses.

Obviously, the remaining schedule is a bit kinder, at least in terms of the quarterbacks New England's defense will be facing.

Quite honestly, they can benefit from a softer schedule in the coming weeks. Following Devin McCourty's injury in the first half against the Jets, their secondary in the second half featured a lineup comprised entirely of undrafted free agents. At least they won't be thrown to the wolves, and they'll have some softies against which they can get their wits about them.

They've been quietly improving already, and the competition only figures to get easier from here.

The much-maligned secondary has been a revolving door, with injuries and roster moves leaving the defensive backfield shaken to its core. The Patriots have a favorable schedule against which they can begin to rebuild the foundation from the ground up, and that task should only get easier as injured stalwarts McCourty and Patrick Chung return to full health and ultimately to the field of play.

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