Why the San Diego Chargers Will Still Win the AFC West

Another week down means we are only seven weeks away from the playoffs.

For many teams, tight divisional races are making this playoff dream difficult. The tightest of these divisions is the AFC West—with Oakland (5-4), San Diego (4-5), Denver (4-5) and Kansas City (4-5).

All of these teams stand a real chance of taking this one out.

Favorites from the beginning, San Diego, sits only one win away from divisional leaders Oakland with seven weeks left. Receiving criticism on both offensive and defensive fronts, the San Diego Chargers face a tough stretch if they plan on making the playoffs.

Here's why strength of schedule, injuries and the key players all point toward San Diego taking out the AFC West, and stepping up come crunch time.

Strength of Schedule

Let's start with the other teams in this division and work our way to San Diego.

Denver Broncos

While Tim Tebow has been a revelation for Denver and is now 3-1 as a starter, the Broncos run home will test every bit of skill of this team that frankly, nobody expected to be one game off the lead in this division.

They face tough road trips to San Diego and Buffalo, and even more daunting prospects lie in upcoming home games against the New York Jets and New England Patriots. Out of the seven games remaining, Denver could actually end up losing all seven, and finish 4-12 for the season.

While that won't happen, the Broncos will struggle to beat the Jets, Chargers, Bears, Patriots and there's no way that 7-9 will win this division.

Kansas City Chiefs

If you thought the run of the Broncos looked tough, you're not too far behind Chiefs fans, with five straight tough games ahead.

We're talking road trips to New England, Chicago and New York, and home games against Pittsburgh and Green Bay. The Chiefs will be lucky to come out of that stretch with a win, and while the two final games against Oakland and Denver may provide some welcome relief, similarly to Denver, the Chiefs still finish with a losing record of 7-9.

That's best case scenario—I think it's more likely to be around the 5-11 mark.

Oakland Raiders

Out of the four in this division, Oakland appear to have the best run home on paper. They have a particular home-field advantage in big games against Chicago, Detroit and San Diego. Excluding a rough road trip to Lambeau, their away games consist of Minnesota, Miami and Kansas City—all games the Raiders feel they should win.

I'm happy to give them wins in all these three, as well as the home game against Detroit. That leaves them at 9-6 with the final game against San Diego at home proving to be the decider in this one, especially considering the winner of this game would also win on count-back.

San Diego Chargers

That leaves us with the Chargers, whose home loss to Oakland last week could prove to be more and more significant every week the playoffs draw closer.

I say they go down to Chicago this week—putting them two games behind the Raiders. However, that loss will be negated when San Diego beats Denver and Oakland also loses to the Bears, putting the gap back at one win.

A road trip to Jacksonville and their strong defense in Week 13 will test the Chargers offense, but they will still come out of it with a win. Buffalo at home will give Rivers a chance to flex his throwing arm as the Chargers run out big winners. The key here is that after this game (Week 14), the Chargers and the Raiders will be tied at 7-6 after Oakland goes down in a heap against the Packers.

Because of this, the Chargers and their home crowd will be completely switched on to tackle the Ravens. Baltimore and Joe Flacco's uncertainty should allow the Chargers and their home crowd to take a win here. The road trip to Detroit will be similar to the Jacksonville game: tough, but winnable. That leaves us with a final-round match to determine who makes the playoffs and who doesn't.

Why will San Diego win this match? Simply put: they're more ready for this.

Oakland does not have a game they're going to be evenly matched in up until this point. Floggings by Chicago and Green Bay will not help the defense and running rings around Kansas City and a hapless defense won't either.

The experience of Rivers here shows as we are reminded that for all his quality play, Palmer still has only had eight weeks with this offense and in clutch circumstances, and he fails to deliver.

Injuries to Critical Players

Once again, let's go through the key teams and end up at San Diego. 

Denver Broncos

It's RB chaos in Denver at the moment, as Knowshon Moreno is placed on season-ending injury reserve due to his ACL injury (via SI.com).

That in itself is okay, but it's the niggling hamstring injury to starter Willis McGahee that is more of a concern. While he was declared fit to play, should a hamstring injury bite once again—which they are prone to do—the ranks of running backs are starting to wear thin.

You're looking once again at Tebow to lead the team in both passing an rushing, and it won't take long for enough tape to circulate and a team to figure out a defense that stops the running.

Tebow's inaccuracy and completion woes highlight the dominance that Denver places on running and should McGahee's injury bite, it only takes one game for Denver's playoff run to be over. 

Kansas City Chiefs

This is the article and news that no chiefs fan wanted to read. With Matt Cassel out for at least two weeks, the Chiefs will really struggle against the throwing powerhouses they face in New England and Pittsburgh.

If they are to match it with these sides, Tyler Palko will need to step up and down the stretch. Against Denver, Palko was solid, but not inspiring. In other words, he's not going to get you over the line against the Patriots, Steelers, Bears or Jets.

Oh and probably not over the Packers either. This season is done and dusted for the Chiefs. 

Oakland Raiders

Darren McFadden's injury seemed like it was going to derail the Raiders' chances of the playoffs, but with Michael Bush named AFC offensive player of the week for his 157-yard rushing effort against the Chargers, this fear seems to have calmed for the moment.

Once McFadden is back, they will be extremely solid running the football. Which then leaves us to the one doubt on their season: Is Carson Palmer good enough? If Jason Campbell was the starting QB, this article would state that the Oakland Raiders would finish the season 11-5 and win the division comfortably.

I think the injury to Campbell will be critical in understanding why Oakland will go down to Chicago and eventually San Diego, and why they didn't end up clinching the division. 

San Diego Chargers

San Diego has done a good job throughout the year staying healthy. With Ryan Matthews back, the Chargers look complete in both offensive departments—something they'll need against the likes of Jacksonville, Baltimore and Oakland.

Providing Philip Rivers stays healthy, Gates stays mobile and the defense is fine, the depth of San Diego will prove to be too much for Oakland's injury woes come Week 17.

Make It or Break It Players: Philip Rivers

If you have read the last two slides properly, you're probably getting the hint that Denver and Kansas City are out of the playoff picture. And you're also probably getting the picture that for all the running strengths of Oakland, San Diego are just as evenly matched offensively.

And for me, in a final week winner takes all, play to the death, super clutch game, this will all come down to Philip Rivers or Carson Palmer and who is able to lead their team to victory.

Watching Rivers play throughout the year has been ugly at times.

Kansas City anybody? Ugly.

Yet at the same time, watching him play has been enjoyable as he moves the chain and knows his offense.

Does he have the clutch factor?

Throughout the year, Rivers has struggled in big moments. Against Green Bay, he had a chance to win it late. Against the Jets, he had a similar moment and the Chiefs, well, let's stop talking about it.

Over the years, Rivers has been known to either struggle or thrive in these moments.

Which one will come out in a final-round showdown with Oakland?

Given the four-weeks' preparation he would have had against the Jaguars, Bills, Ravens and Lions, I'm going to say he'll be ready.

Will he continue to throw interceptions and will he throw away the game by doing so?

No doubt, Rivers needs to throw the ball to his own team a little bit more. His career numbers are not crash when it comes to interceptions, and I think that as long as Antonio Gates remains healthy, Rivers will be fine.

Over the last few weeks the Chargers have lost four in a row. But, the offense is running shorter routes and Rivers is releasing earlier than before, thus reducing his sack and pick numbers. The reason I mention Gates here is that he has been incredibly helpful for Rivers in this—his shorter routes and safe hands have helped the Chargers reduce the interception numbers.

While struggling as of late, the yards and offense Rivers is putting up are forcing teams to score points in return. The four games leading in to the Oakland game should give Rivers his calm back and allow his class to shine come the final round.

Make It or Break It Players: Carson Palmer

Palmer proved to be the difference against the Chargers this week, throwing for all but 300 yards. He will need to continue to put up similar numbers if the Oakland Raiders are to take down San Diego for the divisional title.

His 14 from 20, 299 yard, two TD performance clearly outshone that of Philip Rivers, though I'm not sold on him being a first-class quarterback from one performance.

Has Palmer got it in 2011?

Since the trade landed him in Oakland, Palmer has only completed 41 of 76 passes at 53.9 percent. This is solid, but Palmer has thrown five touchdowns and seven interceptions in three games - two of which were against sub-standard defenses in Kansas City and Denver. His QB rating of 125.0 was high, yet his yearly average is 71.5.

Palmer needs more time to adjust to the offense and learn this team, and come the final round with the season on the line, will not be able to make the big-time play that Rivers can.

Can the Raiders rally around Palmer?

For Palmer to be good, the offensive line needs to step up and continue to perform at a high-level, especially if they are to take down a fired-up Chargers outfit, who have allowed less than thirty 20-yard passes and only five 40-plus-yard passes.

The 203.4 passing yards the Chargers have allowed is almost fifty yards less than that of the Raiders. The Raiders offensive line has been solid in not allowing sacks, but Palmer needs more time behind the line and needs to throw off his front foot more than this back foot if the Raiders are going to win.

Why does San Diego beat Oakland in the final round?

The San Diego offense has more capacity for explosive passing than that of the Oakland Raiders. Philip Rivers—for all his criticisms this year—is better than Carson Palmer, and has more class and clutch than Palmer will ever have.

The Oakland pass defense is fragile and as long as San Diego keeps their heads and hits their passes, Oakland will be helpless against an offense that will grind out wins.

It will be a tight race to the finish, but with the schedule that lies ahead for San Diego, the injuries that have continue to plague Oakland and the ability of Philip Rivers, the San Diego Chargers will take out the AFC West and will relish another opportunity to play playoff football.