Who Is Going to Super Bowl XLVI? Odds in Favor of John Harbaugh

Time has expired on the New England Patriots window for being the best in the National Football League. To no fault of their own, replacing Super Bowl winning players isn’t as easy as drafting well or drafting often, as is the case with the Patriots, over the last few years. Success seems to designate towards certain teams in and out of each decade, with teams emerging to dominate, like the New England Patriots, winning three of their four Super Bowls over a seven year period between 2001 and 2007. Take a look around the Patriots roster.

When more of your Super Bowl winning players are seen on television analyzing the game and not playing in it, is the first sign that the dynasty that was - is no longer.

Joe Gibbs Won Three Super Bowls with the Washington Redskins

It’s magic in a bottle. The potion to find the exact combination of players and coaches to unlock that magical success the Patriots enjoyed under the direction of one of the greatest football minds in the National Football League - Coach Bill Belichick.

Belichick took over in New England as the Patriots coach in 2000. Now entering his twelve season with a team that dominated the last decade- winning ten or more games over the last ten years-the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in the last three. The window that most coaches and teams make their Super Bowl runs, very well could have past Belichick. The Rolling Stones sang ‘Time Is on Our Side’, unfortunately for Belichick and many of the longer tenured coaches in the National Football League, time isn’t on theirs - as you will find out.

Only one coach has won over a ten year span from his first Super Bowl to his last. The only coach to accomplish that is ex-Washington Redskins Head Coach, Joe Gibbs, winning Super Bowls from 1982 to 1991. Not Tom Landry, Chuck Noll or Bill Walsh has done what Gibbs did. Going on the past to look to the future, history tells us that Bill Belichick will never win another Super Bowl and if he does, it’s not the norm - it’s the exception.

The San Francisco 49ers won their last Super Bowl under George Seifert in 1994. The 49ers would go on to win four NFC West crowns over the next four seasons going 48-16, but not reaching the final destination – the Super Bowl. Steve Young and Jerry Rice where still productive during that stretch for the 49ers, just like Tom Brady is now for New England, yet Young and Rice would never win another Super Bowl, very reminiscent of the Patriots we are watching now. 

Winning Early Is Super Bowl Secret

It seems winning Super Bowls early and often is the trend from the very beginning. Last year only illustrated that fact when Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay Packers won last year. The law of averages settles right at year four, for the amount of time it takes on average for coach’s to reach and win their first Super Bowl. Early success is hammered home even more in the chart below where 18 of the 28 winning head coach’s reached the coaching pinnacle with in four seasons or better in their quest for football’s ultimate crown.

Exact Number It Took For All 28 Head Coach’s To Win 1st Super Bowl
Year	Super Bowl Coaches
1	Don McCafferty	George Seifert	Jon Gruden
2	Tom Flores	Joe Gibbs	Barry Switzer	Brian Billick	Bill Belichick	Mike Tomlin
3	Don Shula	Bill Walsh	Mike Shanahan	Bill Parcells	Dick Vermeil
4	Mike Ditka	Jimmy Johnson	Tom Coughlin	Sean Payton
5	Mike Holmgren	Tony Dungy	Mike McCarthy
6	Weeb Ewbank	Chuck Noll
7	Vince Lombardi	Hank Stram
8	John Madden
12	Tom Landry
14	Bill Cowher

Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin Has Enjoyed Two Super Bowls Since 2008

Four and a half decades have past, yet the number is astonishingly similar over each decade and the amount of time it usually take’s for head coaches to win it all. Remarkably the ‘average’ amount of time no matter if the year was 1969 or 2004, there is in fact one number that stands on average to how long it takes these guys to reach the pinnacle of professional coaching in the National Football League – Four.

Years	Winning Coaches	Seasons Coached Reaching First Super Bowl	Average Years Experience With Team
1967/1976	7	6	16.1
1977/1986	5	3.8	11.2
1987/1996	4	2.4	6.6
1997/2006	7	4.2	9.4
2007/2011 *	5 *	4 *	5.6 *
Total	28	4.08 Average	9.78 Season Avg.
Asterisk * - Five Year Span

This is by no means the most systematic study ever conducted but the results do show evidence to support the theory that Super Bowl winning coaches strike sooner rather than later. Only two of the 28 head coaches have won it all after spending ten years with the team. That leaves hope for Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid, who entered his 13^th season in Philadelphia; Tom Landry and Bill Cowher are only two coaches who have won Super Bowls with longer tenures. Also it’s note worthy due to the hype of the Philadelphia Eagles that with all of the current free agent signings, only five other Super Bowl coach’s have lost their first Super Bowl and gone on to win one. New England beat the Philadelphia Eagles in 2004. That short list of names includes Hank Stram, Don Shula, Tom Landry, Dick Vermeil and Bill Cowher, although Vermeil lost with the Eagles and won it with the St. Louis Rams.

Does a tree falling in the woods make a sound? Does the message of veteran head coaches go deaf to players after awhile? Doesn’t seem to be out of sorts to say that the initial success to bring everyone together for one common goal might lose its luster once the team has won a Super Bowl. By that time, the players who listened so intently to the coach are usually gone as well making that rally cry call fall silent just like that tree in the woods. Only two of the 28 Super Bowl winning coaches have won it all after ten years, that says a lot. Another group of hungry fresh faces are looking to make their mark with the likes of the Atlanta Falcons Mike Smith (best record in NFC in 2010) or the New York Jets Rex Ryan (back to back AFC Championship games). When looking at who is hot in the NFL currently, it's the guys around the four year mark. 

John Harbaugh's 49ers Are 6-1

To think that three coaches won the Super Bowl in their inaugural season is truly amazing. Trust me I know these guys didn’t inherit the 2008 Detroit Lions (0-16) but any one with a pulse could have guided the Swizter lead Cowboys back in 1995 to the Promised Land. Although it has to make you wonder if lighting strikes again, San Francisco first year coach John Harbaugh has the second best record in the league at 6-1. So many scenarios and ways to connect the dots on whom in fact will be the next group of Super Bowl winning coaches. For instance, no coach has won in years nine or ten and only one coach has won in year eight. Makes Jack Del Rio, Tom Coughlin, Marvin Lewis and Lovie Smith look like dead weight. Factor in the early success and look at the chart again and its astonishing that every coach carrying steam is in the three to five year period of their coaching journey and guys like Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton are right on the bubble of title number two before they get into that Bermuda Triangle of years. After eight years as a head coach, your chances of winning it all become slim.

Current Coach Chart
Year Coaches Won After Taking Over Team	Super Bowl Winning Coaches Total	Active coaches in NFL with years of coaching with current team.	Total
One Year	3	Jason Garrett*, Leslie Frazier*, Ron Rivera, Jim Harbaugh, Pat Shumur, Mike Munchak, John Fox, Hue Jackson	8
Two Years	6	Mike Shanahan, Pete Carroll, Chan Gailey	3
Three Years	4	Jim Schwartz, Raheem Morris, Steve Spagnuolo, Rex Ryan, Jim Caldwell, Todd Haley,	6
Four Years	5	Mike Smith, Tony Sparano, John Harbaugh	3
Five Years	3	Ken Whisenhunt, Mike Tomlin, Norv Turner	3
Six Years	2	Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton, Gary Kubiak	3
Seven Years	2
Eight Years	1	Tom Coughlin, Lovie Smith,	2
Nine Years		Marvin Lewis, Jack Del Rio,	2
Ten Years
Eleven Years
Twelve Years	1	Bill Belichick,	1
Thirteen Years		Any Reid,	1
Fourteen Years	1
* Dallas Cowboys Jason Garrett and Minnesota Vikings Leslie Frazier interim coach in 2010.

Over the last 45 years since the first Super Bowl was played, 28 different coaches have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. There is a central tendency for head coaches to win the Super Bowl. It takes a certain amount of time to transform the team into the image they perceived upon being hired that leads them to proudly hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy. That tendency - Is winning early and usually winning often.