Top 25 Most Important Games of the 2nd Half of the NFL Season

This week's slate of NFL games will have us across the halfway point in the 2011 season and while a lot can change between now and Sunday evening New Year's Day, the playoff teams are starting to come into view.

And, to the delight of FOX, CBS, NBC, and ESPN, just about each week there will be multiple games that have a tremendous impact on the identity of the division champions, wild card winners, and even the team that wins the Suck for Luck campaign.

So—keeping in mind my own personal assumptions about who is a contender, and who a pretender—here are the 25 most critical games remaining on the NFL schedule. 

No. 25: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

When: Week 12

Date: November 24

Where: Edward Jones Dome

While the Colts and Dolphins have the inside track on the Suck For Luck race (crawl?) here are two clubs that should be considered sleepers. (And you'd be naive to think that neither club would at least consider selecting the Stanford dream boat simply because they already have starting quarterbacks). 

Right now, both teams are sitting on just one win so they still have an outside shot. 

And even if neither team is going to ultimately land the top prize, the loser of this game is probably going to do no worse than the third overall pick: for the Rams that could mean a top receiver like Justin Blackmon and for the Cardinals it could mean a premier pass rusher. 

No. 24: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

When: Week 17

Date: January 1, 2012

Where: EverBank Field

Based on how hard they've played, and the potential boost down the road of a Peyton Manning return (even if it is to practices and not a regular season game) I tend to think that the Colts are going to steer far clear of a winless season and in the process fall out of contention in the Suck For Luck race.

But just in case the same team we all saw two weeks ago in New Orleans rears it's ugly head throughout November and December they certainly can prove me wrong. 

And should that happen, should they tumble and fail to get gain more than one tick in the win column, when they face Jacksonville in Week 17 they still might find themselves with a shot at landing Andrew Luck to replace Peyton Manning. 

No. 23: Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins

When: Week 9

Date: November 6

Where: Sun Life Stadium

There's a couple of interesting factors at play here. 

For one, this Sunday's rematch of Super Bowls VII and XVII could very well prove to be the last game Tony Sparano coaches for Miami. And if Bill Cowher is destined to return to the NFL—Miami is probably the ideal place to do so—that move might be solidified if Miami gives their hungry fans an incredible eighth straight home loss.

But more than anything else, if you look at the Dolphins schedule the rest of the season, this is probably their best shot at winning a game and avoiding a horrific 0-16 season: every other team on their schedule (New England, the Jets, Kansas City, Dallas, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo twice) has a legitimate shot at the postseason. 

No. 22: New York Jets at Denver Broncos

When: Week 11

Date: November 17 (Thursday Night)

Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High

I suppose the Broncos still have a shot at winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes—they only trail the Rams, Colts, and Dolphins by two games—but that's not the main reason this game should have some significant appeal.

Not only was this a fairly interesting game last season and the Jets do have a knack for playing down to their competition, but this Thursday Night game will be on NFL Network, thus giving Tim Tebow a fairly national stage. 

And since the Broncos spend the next two weeks on the road before this visit from the Jets and their outstanding defense, it could be the last time the home crowd sees Tebow play....or it could be the proverbial "breakout" game, where Tebow secures his place as the franchise signal caller. But don't count on it. 

No. 21: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

When: Week 9

Date: November 6

Where: Superdome

No, this entry isn't on here to see whether or not Sean Payton can tear the other ACL.

For whatever reason, I get the sense that the NFC South is really flying under the radar right now, a surprising fact considering two of its competitors made the playoffs last year and a third came up just short. 

Now part of that is due to the fact that the Bucs, Saints, and Falcons have all put up some really paltry efforts at times. 

Still, don't sleep on this game. The Bucs already have wins over the Saints and Falcons, so a win on Sunday could give them the inside track on a division crown. 

No. 20: Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers

When: Week 15

Date: December 18

Where: Qualcomm Stadium

The Ravens may have an incredibly inconsistent offense, but they are still going to be in contention for the AFC North throughout the season: even if they lose Sunday in Heinz Field, they will still have a split with the Steelers. So by the time this game rolls around both clubs should be at or near double digit wins. A win out West could push Baltimore past the Steelers since the Steelers are in San Francisco the next day. 

As for the Chargers, you have to figure that by this point in the season, whatever is ailing Philip Rivers will have been straightened out....and if it's not, maybe Norv Turner will be shown the door. 

No. 19: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

When: Week 16

Date: December 24

Where: Arrowhead Stadium

Presumably Carson Palmer will be a little bit more prepared for this showdown than the last one. 

And even if he's not, the game should be much closer than it was during last month's 28-0 beat down in Oakland.

Both clubs are 4-3 right now and given the Chargers woeful play as of late, both Kansas City and Oakland should be in the hunt to win the AFC West, even if it's with an 9-7 or 8-8 record. 

No. 18: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

When: Week 11

Date: November 20

Where: Gillette Stadium

First, the subplots:

Tom Brady will be facing the Chiefs for the first time since his season-ending knee injury in Week 1 of the 2008 season. And in a not totally unrelated story, Matt Cassel will be making his somewhat triumphant return to Gillette Stadium. 

But aside from the two starting quarterbacks—and Romeo Crennel's reunion with Bill Belichick—the game itself should have a major influence on playoff seeding. The Pats might need this game to keep pace with whoever is atop the AFC East while the Chiefs, will need it just as much (and probably more) to keep pace with Oakland and/or San Diego. 

No. 17: New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles

When: Week 12

Date: November 27

Where: Lincoln Financial Field

Obviously the Pats and Eagles were preseason Super Bowl favorites and despite records a game or two worse than experts probably expected, by the end of this month, both will still be contenders for their respective Eastern divisions. 

But that's not the most compelling aspect of this game.

Watching Tom Brady face the Eagles "super secondary" will be intriguing...but not nearly as fun Michael Vick taking on that borderline terrible Pats defense. 

No. 16: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

When: Week 14

Date: December 11

Where: Paul Brown Stadium

Few people realize that the Bengals defense is ranked among the best against both the run and the pass, so pitting them up against Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, and presumably Andre Johnson will be one of the best tests imaginable. 

Still, I'm more interested in seeing how the Bengals do against Wade Phillips revamped defense. Even without Mario Williams, Houston hasn't skipped a beat the past few weeks. 

But Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are starting to look like a great duo in the making and if they manage to pull off a minor upset, it will probably keep them in step with the AFC North's "real" contenders, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. 

No. 15: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

When: Week 12

Date: November 24 (Thanksgiving)

Where: Ford Field

Assuming that the Packers will remain undefeated by this point in the season is a long shot: the Chargers and Buccaneers will be extremely tough tests going forward. And given the fact that the Lions aren't terribly far behind them in the NFC North standings (just a game in the win column) even one slip up could make this Thanksgiving Day game critical for the divisional race.

Aaron Rogers should continue to approach historic passing stats even though Detroit's pass defense is one of the best in the game and Ndamukong Suh will probably put serious pressure on him. But the better show will be the Lions offense against Green Bay's relatively poor pass defense. 

The Packers have shown flaws and vulnerability against teams with excellent quarterbacks (New Orleans and Carolina, specifically) and against Stafford, that's likely to continue. 

No. 14: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

When: Week 17

Date: January 1, 2012

Where: Reliant Stadium

Personally, I'm not much of a believer in the Titans: Matt Hasselbeck has yet to play well against a good team, Chris Johnson doesn't look like the Chris Johnson we've come to know, and their pass receiving corps is paltry at best.

But that being said, given their schedule—especially in the two weeks leading up to this regular season finale—they don't seem to be going away. 

And even if the Texans have the AFC South wrapped up by this point—which is far from a given—Tennessee would delight in keeping their division rival from improving their playoff positioning. 

No. 13: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

When: Week 13

Date: December 4

Where: Heinz Field

The Bengals may be one of the NFL's pleasant surprises this season—just a half-game behind the Steelers and tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North—but they still seem to be doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Yes, they knocked the Bills from the undefeated ranks, but other than that, they don't have a single win on their resume that suggests they are a legitimate contender: and that still won't change Sunday even if they topple the Titans.

A win over Pittsburgh, however, would certainly turn heads. 

And since the Steelers will be coming off highly emotional games at home against New England and Baltimore, this is a classic "trap game" for Mike Tomlin's club. 

No. 12: Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

When: Week 13

Date: December 4

Where: Met Life Stadium

For both of these teams this game was the turning point in the 2010 season: last December in Lambeau, the Giants faced a must-win, lost, and missed out on the postseason by one game while the Packers faced a must-win, won, qualified for the playoffs and ultimately won the Super Bowl. 

A year later, playoff spots will definitely be up for grabs in the rematch. 

Clearly both clubs have tremendous passing offenses and flaws on defense: the Giants can't stop the run and the Packers can't stop the pass. So if you like offense this should be a thrilling game, even if it's a cold, snowy day in East Rutherford. 

No. 11: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

When: Week 11

Date: November 20

Where: Met Life Stadium

Talk about compelling rematches! 

Everyone knows what happened when the Eagles and Giants met last time in East Rutherford: DeSean Jackson enacted the Miracle of the Meadowlands 2. 

Still, the media will paint this game as a matchup of Michael Vick and Eli Manning, but this one is not going to come down to the performance of those $100 million men. 

Both clubs have done a terrible job of defending the run this year and whichever defense handles that task best will win the game and ultimately take control of the NFC East lead. 

No. 10: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

When: Week 10

Date: November 13

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium

As exciting and heartfelt a story as the Bills have been this year, they still haven't proven they are able to go on the road and win against a good team....that Week 1 Chiefs team was not the Chiefs team we're seeing right now.

So if you pencil in losses for the Bills on the road against tough opponents in the Jets and Patriots, then their hopes for a postseason berth will hinge on this game: they absolutely have to earn splits with both those AFC East powerhouses. Now half of that was already accomplished when they upset the Patriots. The other half rests on this showdown. 

The Jets secondary is obviously phenomenal and Ryan Fitzpatrick will struggle mightily, but the trio of Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, and even former Jet Brad Smith is a nice Plan B against Rex Ryan's defense, which right now ranks 25th against the run. 

No. 9: Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers

When: Week 15

Date: December 19 (Monday Night)

Where: Candlestick Park

Like several other clubs out there, the 49ers fall into the category of "yea, their record is good, but are they legit?"

Now a huge part of that is Alex Smith and whether or not he has the chops to be a consistent, reliable player. Well, he won't face a tougher challenge than the Steelers defense. 

But the other half of the coin is equally intriguing. The Steelers run defense has been much maligned this season and despite wins over Arizona and New England, the questions about that unit haven't necessarily been answered. 

Smith and Jim Harbaugh may be receiving most of the accolades for the 49ers 6-1 record, but Frank Gore is easily the team MVP and if he can topple 100 yards, the 49ers should steal a critical win and perhaps even lock up a first round playoff bye. 

No. 8: New York Giants at New York Jets

When: Week 16

Date: December 24

Where: Met Life Stadium

Dubbing this the "Plaxico Burress Bowl" is certainly overstating it, but both clubs came into the season with huge expectations and there are superstars on both sides of the ball.  

And although this is an inter-conference showdown and won't necessarily have an impact on division or conference records, it should still greatly influence the makeup of the 2011 playoffs. 

Both of these teams play in ultra competitive divisions with at least three legitimate playoff contenders so it's a safe bet that whichever Big Apple club loses this Christmas Eve (day) showdown, will find themselves on the outside of the postseason picture. 

No. 7: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

When: Week 16

Date: December 26 (Monday Night)

Where: Superdome

Because at times the Bucs seem to have taken a step backwards in 2011, I still think the NFC South will come down to the past two division winners: New Orleans and Atlanta.

And although the first edition of this NFC South rivalry (next Sunday, Week 10) will certainly go a long way in declaring the favorite to win the division, it's the rematch that will decide who earns that all-important homefield playoff game. There's just too much football to be played between now and late December. 

Furthermore, because the NFC East is going to be a war of attrition and the 49ers have a few extremely tough games on their schedule (the Giants, Steelers, and Ravens) whoever wins the NFC South has a good chance of earning a playoff bye. 

No. 6: San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

When: Week 17

Date: January 1, 2012

Where: Oakland Alameda Coliseum

Granted neither the Raiders nor Chargers are on top of the world right now, but I look for both team's quarterbacks (Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers) to eventually get on track and in the process so will their respective clubs. 

And although the Chiefs are emerging as a great story, I'd be stunned if the team that represents the AFC West in the playoffs didn't come from California. 

That journey hits full stride in two weeks when the Chargers host the Raiders in Qualcomm, but obviously the critical moment will come in the final week of the season. 

No. 5: New England Patriots at New York Jets

When: Week 10

Date: November 13

Where: Met Life Stadium

The last few showdowns between these two rivals haven't managed to live up to the hype, but that should change in two weeks. 

The matchup of Rex Ryan versus Bill Belichick, Tom Brady versus Darrelle Revis, and Mark Sanchez versus that horrible Pats pass defense will be exciting and good fodder for the media. 

But there's a good chance that in the week leading up to this game, both of these clubs will find themselves behind Buffalo in the standings, so whichever team leaves Met Life with another loss on their record could ultimately be the odd man out come playoff time.

No. 4: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

When: Week 9

Date: November 6

Where: Heinz Field

As good as the Patriots-Jets is becoming or as much history as there is to Bears-Packers, this is easily the best rivalry in today's NFL.

And aside from that season-opening debacle in Baltimore—which will certainly add even more spark to the showdown—this game routinely comes down to the last minute and determines which team will win the AFC North and which team will be vying for a wild card spot. 

So it shouldn't be a surprised to see a Week 9 game listed as one of the four most significant on the remaining schedule. 

Sure, the Bengals will have something to say about the race for the North, but the division will be won this Sunday at Heinz Field. 

No. 3: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

When: Week 17

Date: January 1, 2012

Where: Met Life Stadium

Man, Met Life Stadium will have no shortage of critical games over the next few months.

Although the Cowboys have been a real punching bag for the talking heads across the national media—and they've earned it with the egg they laid in Philadelphia, the collapse against Detroit, and their franchise quarterback's poor performances—I think it's insane to count them out at this point. 

For one, they do have a relatively favorable schedule remaining: Miami, Arizona, Washington, and Seattle, in addition to a pair of home games against their key rivals in the Giants and Eagles. 

If Jason Garrett can get that team's offensive concerns straightened out, they might have the type of late season run we saw the Packers make last season and who better to complete it against than their longtime rival. 

And even though the Giants own a two-game edge right now and seem to be sitting pretty they too have shown a capacity for the December swoon and their  schedule (New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco, the Jets) only gets tougher from here on in. 

No. 2: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

When: Week 17

Date: January 1, 2012

Where: Gillette Stadium

I reserve the right to assume that the NFL schedule-makers got lucky with this one: there's no way they could have predicted that the Bills would be a contender. 

Still, this sets up as a pretty epic finale for both clubs and here's why.

Although the Patriots are the more  talented, superior team, because Buffalo stole that game back in September they have a chance to sweep the season series. So if the Bills—who do catch a break with Miami twice plus Denver still on the schedule—can manage to just stay within one game of New England from now until New Year's then a win in Gillette Stadium will probably give them the AFC East title outright....depending of course on what the Jets do.

And even if the clock does start to strike midnight on the Cinderella Bills, the game will probably have an impact on playoff seeding for both teams: the Pats with a playoff bye and/or homefield advantage and the Bills with a potential wild card. 

No. 1: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

When: Week 17

Date: January 1, 2012

Where: Lambeau Field

The only repeat entry on this list, the Packers-Lions game will probably determine more than just the winner of the NFC North: homefield advantage should be on the line that frigid day at Lambeau. 

As good as the Packers have been in the first half of the season, they are going to start to come back to the pack (excuse the pun) a bit down the stretch. Not only is their pass defense really vulnerable right now, but look for fatigue—dating back to last season's grueling playoff run—to set in. And it's impossible for Aaron Rodgers to keep playing at this pace all season....right?

Even a small stumble here and there for the Packers should open the door for Detroit to pull within a game or two of the Super Bowl champions and since they have them at home on Thanksgiving six weeks earlier, if they can pull off a series sweep on New Year's Day, the Lions might just end up stunning the league with one of the all-time great single-season turnarounds in NFL history.