Philadelphia Phillies 2012: Best and Worst Case Scenarios at Every Position

A team's journey to the World Series is never as black and white as one would think. The best regular season teams, contrary to popular belief, do not always win it all.

Sometimes, even the best regular season teams don't make it out past the LDS.

The Phillies can be considered this team.

They were touted by many as World Series favorites and after winning a Major League and franchise best 102 games, were quickly ousted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.

No championship team is perfect on paper. The Phillies thought they had the best team on paper and maybe they did, but it did nothing for their championship aspirations.

With this season's hopes dashed, the Phillies now have to focus on what they can do to make a run at the 2012 World Series.

With free agency, potential trade rumors, minor league call-ups and player injuries to tend to, the Phillies brass have much work to do to get this team back in championship mode.

Sometimes, things all fall into place for the best outcomes but other times, teams are faced with worst case scenarios that force them to re-evaluate and regroup.

For the Phillies, this fall and 2012 spring training could be one of best or worst case scenarios. Only time will tell if the baseball gods are looking favorably on them.

Best Case at 1B: Ryan Howard Is Healthy on Opening Day

If it wasn't obvious before this year, it was made obvious in the 2011 Playoffs: the Phillies need Ryan Howard.

The image of Howard going down in pain is one Phillies fans won't soon forget.

Not only was it the last image of their 2011 playoff run, it was also a reminder this team is not getting any younger. For some, it was a forewarning of an injury-riddled season to come.

It was announced Howard suffered an Achilles injury after Game 5 of the NLDS. In early October, he had surgery on his ruptured Achilles tendon.

No one is entirely sure how long the rehab will take, but the Phillies and Ruben Amaro Jr. are optimistic it will be five to six months before Howard can play at his normal level.

Ruben has also said that four months, although unlikely, is a possible recovery time depending on well he progresses.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Skepticism-for-Howards-recovery-time.html?cmpid=131298094

Best Case Scenario—Howard is ready to play healthy and at his level of play on Opening Day in April.

Worst Case at 1B: Ryan Howard Is Forced to Miss Significant Time

If the best case scenario has Howard playing a full season healthy, the worst case scenario has to be the opposite and that means missing a significant amount of time.

According to reports,http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Skepticism-for-Howards-recovery-time.html?cmpid=131298094, for Howard to fully recover from the surgery in four to six months is extremely optimistic and improbable.

Although six months looks to be the target for Howard to return to baseball activities, history of past baseball players will the same Achilles injury do not bod well.

Instead of four to six months, Howard could be looking at a six-to-12-month recovery time, which would have him missing most of the 2012 season.

This would obviously be detrimental to the Phillies and their production.

Worst Case Scenario—Howard is not ready to play until July or August, and even then, he is not healthy enough to play at a level of play the Phillies will need from him. 

Best Case at 2B: Chase Utley Is Fully Healthy With No Lingering Injury Concerns

For the Phillies and Chase Utley, a healthy season for the former All-Star is all but required if the Phillies hope to contend in the NL East again.

If Howard is forced to miss any amount of time and the Phillies do not re-sign Jimmy Rollins, Utley will be needed to lead this team offensively.

Chase Utley's production cannot be undervalued, and he will need to need to have a good season in 2012. Not only do the Phillies need it, but Utley himself needs it.

The slugger really needs to have a completely healthy 2012 in order to dispel rumors that he is plagued with injury or that he is in a decline.

With good years obviously still left, Utley will need to use 2012 to put his name back on the map and get himself back to the All-Star Game as the best second baseman in the NL.

Best Case Scenario—Utley plays at least 150 games in the 2012 season and does not suffer from any injury either past or future.

Worst Case at 2B: Utley's Injuries Affect His Play

The Phillies will be in offensive trouble if Chase Utley comes into the 2012 season at anywhere but 100 percent healthy.

With Howard probably missing time, and the possible departure of Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez to free agency, the offensive leadership falls on Utley's shoulders.

In past seasons, this would not have been a problem but after dealing with two bad injuries, Utley is hoping to put these behind him and continue forward as a daily player.

Because of free agent decisions the Phillies will have to make, it will be more important than ever for Utley to stay healthy in 2012.

If they choose not to re-sign Wilson Valdez or Michael Martinez, there will be no one adequate enough to fill in for Utley if he has to miss time.

The Phillies would have to look to free agency, a trade or a minor league call-up, none of which they are prepared or wanting to do at this time.

Worst Case Scenario—Utley suffers from another injury or continues to have problems with hip and knee injuries, forcing the Phillies to replace him for a significant amount of time.

Best Case at SS: The Phillies Re-Sign Jimmy Rollins

This is the Phillies' biggest priority going into 2012.

Rollins is a free agent, and the Phillies may just have to give him exactly what he wants in order to bring back one of the most important pieces of their championship success of 2008.

If Rollins leaves, it will be difficult for the Phillies to replace his presence and defense. I

But it will be nearly impossible to replace his heart and confidence, both of which he has made part of the Phillies' overall character during his tenure.

Some may say Rollins is aging and they don't want to take the risk of bringing him on for a five-year contract. But it is imperative for the Phillies to consider what they would lose by not agreeing to terms with Jimmy.

His bat may have slowed a bit, but Rollins can still hit pretty decently and he still has power. His speed is still solid—he is good for 20 stolen bases a season.

Finally, his glove is something the Phillies don't want to lose.

It would be easier to replace the offensive numbers than his defensive production, especially the rapport he has with double play partner, Chase Utley. So important in baseball is the relationship between the second baseman and shortstop.

Utley and Rollins are one of the best combinations in the Major League.

Best Case Scenario—Rollins signs a new contract with the Phillies and embarks on a renaissance season.

Worst Case at SS: Anyone but Jimmy Rollins Starts at Shortstop

To see Rollins go is one thing, but to see him go to an NL East team is something totally different.

For someone who has worn red and white pinstripes every year of his career, changing uniforms and allegiances at this point just seems ludicrous.

But for Jimmy Rollins, the decision is his to make.

There haven't been many rumblings of Rollins going to New York or Atlanta or Florida, but it isn't out of the question. New York will need a shortstop if they can't afford to re-sign Jose Reyes.

For them, Rollins would make an affordable and solid replacement for one of the best young stars in the game. Florida and Washington probably couldn't afford him, but Atlanta sure could and at that position they could use a talent like Rollins.

To see Rollins play for teams he once taunted wouldn't feel right, and for Phillies fans it would be a real worst case scenario.

Seeing Rollins playing for another team will be sad for most fans, as it was when they parted with the beloved Pat Burrell after the 2008 World Series.

But more than just making fans sad, it will also mean holes the Phillies have to replace.

Enter Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez. Both of these guys are in the same boat as Rollins.

They could stay or go, but unlike Rollins, they are at the mercy of whether or not the Phillies want them. If Rollins chooses to sign elsewhere, it is pretty certain at least one of these guys will stick around into spring training to battle for the starting job.

The Phillies could also sign a free agent shortstop but past Reyes, that position is weak in the free agent market.

Worst Case Scenario—Martinez, Valdez, or minor leaguer Freddy Galvis plays shortstop for the Phillies for all or most of the 2012 season. In other words, the team is forced to replace Rollins internally.

Best Case at 3B: Placido Polanco Is Healthy for the Entire 2012 Season

In 2011, as Polanco began to see his batting average drop and strikeout numbers increase, the Phillies started to worry about their 35-year-old third baseman.

A few injuries during the 2011 season forced him to miss time and led to his below-average season. Some say the decline was a result of his aging body not being able to support the rigors of a 162-game season at one of the hardest positions in baseball.

But the Phillies are optimistic after his double hernia surgery this offseason that Polanco will be back to his old self and ready to play come Opening Day.

Unlike Howard, Polanco's recovery time is not a question.

He is expected to be ready by spring training, permitting there are no unforeseen setbacks in his recovery.

With a few months to rest his body, Polanco looks to be fresh coming into 2012.

He is important for the Phillies, because Polanco has had one of the lowest of strikeout rates per plate appearance in his career. That will be important for the Phillies with him hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

His main skill is making contact, and therefore getting hits, and if Polanco can do this in 2012, the Phillies won't have to worry about leaving runners in scoring position.

Best Case Scenario—Polanco is healthy, well rested and ready to play at a high level, both offensively and defensively.

Worst Case at 3B: Phillies Look for Polanco's Long-Term Replacement

If Polanco comes into 2012 still bothered by his sports hernia, his baseball career could be coming to an end. After having back pain, elbow injuries and now the sports hernia, Polanco's body looks to be slowing down.

Another injury might just make the 35-year-old call it quits.

For the Phillies, who are relying on Polanco to have a good season, any amount of missed time will be detrimental to the organization. The Phillies long ago traded many of their top draft picks to replace aging Phillies stars such as Polanco.

Losing Polanco would mean losing a pretty good contact hitter and solid fielder as well.

If he does have to miss time, it will force the Phillies to come up with a backup plan. Unfortunately for the Phillies, they won't know Polanco's injury status until long after they figure out Rollins' situation.

The fact Polanco has been suffering injuries recently might be in the back of Ruben Amaro's mind when he looks at who to re-sign.

If Rollins goes, it is a safe bet to think Martinez or Valdez will get a chance to win the role out of spring training. If Polanco misses time, one of these guys or a free agent will have to take Polanco's role, leaving Amaro very thin on the bench.

Worst Case Scenario—Polanco's surgery does not cure the sports hernia, and the Phillies are forced to replace him for 2012 and beyond.

Best Case at Catcher: Phillies Find a Good Backup

Considering the beating they take behind the plate, it is nearly impossible for a catcher to play all 162 games.

At points in the season, they need rest and it is imperative not to overuse them as a way to prevent injury.

The Phillies have struggled to find someone to back up Carlos Ruiz since the retirement of Chris Coste.

The Brian Schneider experiment didn't work out very well, and it is probably safe to assume the Phillies won't find the backup catcher they need in free agency.

Bringing up a catcher from the minors presents two problems—the Phillies don't have any catchers ready to come up and backup catchers must be ready to go at any minute.

It is one of the most important positions on a roster because if the catcher goes down, a backup has to be ready to provide offense, defense and game management.

Unless a team is certain a prospect is fully ready to handle these duties, it is wise to wait.

The Phillies might have to look to a trade to find Ruiz's backup. Either that or they could test the free agent market and attempt to snag another team's backup.

At this point, the Phillies are less concerned with their catcher's offense.

Instead, they are more focused on how he handles the ball defensively and how he works with the pitching staff. Bringing in a backup catcher is vital for this reason.

Best Case Scenario—The Phillies part ways with Brian Schneider and sign a backup catcher who has adequate offense and is used to playing frequently. Someone to give Ruiz needed rest who can handle the pitching staff.

Worst Case at Catcher: Carlos Ruiz Gets Injured and Phillies Don't Have a Backup

It's something Phillies fans really don't want to think about but it is a possibility.

Luckily for the team, Ruiz has never had to miss significant time. He has had a few injuries here and there and missed a few weeks here and there, but overall Ruiz has stayed healthy, a blessing the Phillies and their pitchers are lucky to have.

Although it doesn't look as if Ruiz will go down anytime soon, it is something that has to be on people's minds because of his position.

As a catcher, Ruiz takes a beating almost every game and as he gets older, the team must wonder much longer his knees and body will hold out.

For the Phillies, this is a back of the line concern but it is something that has to be addressed at some point.

They are likely not to re-sign Brian Schneider and as a result will need to get a new backup catcher who can give Ruiz much needed rest.

Worst Case Scenario—Ruiz gets injured and after losing Schneider, the Phillies do not have a good backup catcher. This causes problems with the pitchers and defensive liabilities of acquiring a player not ready to be a starting catcher.

Best Case at Pitcher: A Healthy Joe Blanton Fills Out the Rotation

The Phillies look to be parting ways with Roy Oswalt, as they have currently declined to pick up his club option for 2012. Having Joe Blanton back healthy and able to pitch will be key to the team's success going forward.

In spring training, it looks like there will once again be a competition to see who gets the fifth starting pitcher's job.

Last year's rookie phenom, Vance Worley, has at least earned a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation. If  Oswalt does not return to the Phillies, it looks like he will be given a spot outright.

Blanton could have to fight the enigma that is Kyle Kendrick, as once again he could get a shot at making the starting rotation.

Because Blanton is still owed a lot of money, it really makes him hard to trade.

For that reason, the Phillies hope he is at his best come 2012 and that he pitches well enough to be worth the money being paid to him.

Best Case Scenario—Joe Blanton is the fifth starter for the Phillies and manages to win at least eight games on the season.

Worst Case at Pitcher: Kyle Kendrick Wins a Starting Job

This is something Philly fans everywhere must be afraid of. Sad thing is, if Oswalt is gone, this could be a real possibility.

Kyle Kendrick has been everything the Phillies didn't want from a starting pitcher.

After a stellar rookie season, Kendrick looked to have a promising future ahead of him. Unfortunately, he just couldn't bring his rookie success into other years.

After a series of trips back to the minors, Kendrick seemed to lose his ability to start, at least with the Phils. He lacked a sense of confidence and his pitches were flat.

When Kendrick came back up to the majors and took the role of spot starter in the bullpen, he actually managed to have somewhat of a good season. The lack of consistency he had had throughout his career seemed to go away.

Kendrick enjoyed success in this role.

Despite his past failures, for some reason the organization still has hope he can return to the pitching from his rookie season and develop into a solid pitcher. He still has a role on this team, but it should only be in the bullpen.

He is too inconsistent to trust with a starting pitching role.

The problem is, he might be given this role. In the past, the Phillies have shown a tendency to give the guy with the best spring training a spot on the team.

Kendrick has had great springs, only to dash his opportunities by continually failing in the regular season.

Worst Case Scenario—The Phillies are forced to have Kendrick go as the fifth starter if he wins the job outright in the spring.

Best Case at RF: Hunter Pence Displays Value in First Full Season With Phillies

For Hunter Pence, 2012 is going to be his chance to put together his first full season in red and white pinstripes.

Given his skill set and Citizen's Bank Park's dimensions, this year could certainly be great for one of Philly's somewhat younger stars.

Pence will be called on with Utley to give the Phils consistent offensive production all season long.

Although he too had offseason surgery, Pence's health is not really going to be a question. He is one of the only Phils who hasn't had a past with injuries recently. Because he is younger than the other guys, his body is in better shape and fresher.

If anyone on this roster can play 162 games, it is Pence, and because of the current injury question marks, he might have to do just that.

Best Case Scenario—Pence plays an entire season and leads the Phillies in HRs and RBIs if Howard misses time.

Worst Case at RF: Pence Has a Recovery Setback From Offseason Surgery

Hunter Pence warming the bench is something the Phillies don't want to see. In fact, if the Phillies hope to make the playoffs in 2012, it is something they cannot afford to see.

It already seems Ryan Howard will miss time and that Raul Ibanez will not be re-signed.

Jimmy Rollins's future with the team is still up in the air, and both Polanco and Utley have had history of recent injury.

Putting these variables together leaves the team with offensive question marks everywhere. The importance of Hunter Pence cannot be understated when it comes to his value for the team.

Even if Howard is ready by Opening Day, the Phillies find production from their outfield. Infielder questions aside, Pence still plays a huge role in the lineup.

As the five-hole hitter, Pence allows Howard to see better pitches and optimizes his chances of getting a pitch he can hit over the fence.

Worst Case Scenario—Pence has to miss significant time if he suffers a setback from his offseason surgery, putting the Phillies' offensive production and playoff hopes in jeopardy.

Best Case at CF: Shane Victorino Starts Every Game

Just as Pence's offensive production is going to be key for the Phillies, so is Victorino's.

Simply put, he really cannot miss many games. Victorino needs to stay healthy all season and be a constant in the Phillies' lineup, which could be cluttered with new faces and injury inconsistencies.

Shane Victorino is one of the rare five-tool players.

He can hit for contact and some power, he plays good gold glove defense in center field and has a great arm to throw out runners. His speed is a given.

Even missing these qualities for one game could hurt the Phillies' offense if they are already dealing with other injured starters.

Victorino is capable of having a great season as long as he stays healthy and doesn't try to do too much.

His game is not to swing for the fences and even if Howard, Utley or Pence misses time, he has to know this is not his role.

Victorino, who very well could be hitting leadoff next season, has the job of getting on first, stealing second and scoring runs early in the game.

Best Case Scenario—Victorino starts all 162 games and produces consistent offensive numbers throughout the season.

Worst Case at CF: Victorino Has a Disappointing Season

While Victorino is capable of having a great season, it is also possible he can have a not-so-great season, which wouldn't be good for the Phillies' offense.

Victorino is one of the only Phillies to not have offseason surgery or injury concerns.

For this reason, staying healthy is going to be so important. Victorino cannot miss time on the DL. Some of his Phillies teammates will already be there.

He needs to stay healthy but past that, he needs to play well.

Lately, Victorino has been popping out a lot. Some say he is trying to do too much. Victorino can hit a home run now and again, but he shouldn't go up to bat swinging for the fences every time.

It is not his style of play, and it is not a style that sets him up for success.

If they use him to get on base, steal, make contact and score runs, both he and the Phillies will be more likely to have good seasons.

Worst Case Scenario—Victorino gets hurt or doesn't play in the style that suits him, leading to a sub-par season.

Best Case at LF: John Mayberry Jr. Starts and Finishes the Season in LF

If the Phillies choose not to re-sign Raul Ibanez, it means two things—they do not believe the 39-year-old slugger has anything left in the tank and they trust John Mayberry Jr. to be an everyday left fielder.

Spending 2011 in the minors and majors and platooning with Ibanez, Mayberry on several occasions got his chance to prove to he is ready to play.

With no prospects other than Domonic Brown available to come up, Mayberry has gotten a serious look for the job. Defensively, he is okay but offensively, Mayberry still has trouble hitting righties.

If he can take his hitting against lefties and translate it against righties, Mayberry would make a pretty solid outfielder and join the trio of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino.

However, it is not that simple.

If Ryan Howard does miss time, the Phillies might have Mayberry fill in at that position rather than sign someone else. Not only does this present a bit of a difficult situation for Mayberry, it requires the Phillies to find a new outfielder.

Best Case Scenario—Mayberry is able to start and finish the season as the Phillies' left fielder without any demotions along the way.

Worst Case at LF: Phillies Forced To Platoon Domonic Brown in LF

If Mayberry is forced to start at first, that leaves the Phillies with few other options in the outfield besides former top prospect Domonic Brown.

Brown has had chances in the outfield and each time has failed to deliver what the Phillies were expecting. He never really hit for average, and his power numbers weren't good enough to make up for the lack of contact.

Some say Brown will never be a good major league player, because his swing is too long.

But the Phillies still have some faith in Brown, evidenced by the fact Amaro continually says he will not be traded.

If he starts in the outfield in 2012 and doesn't perform well, it could give the Phillies no other choice than to trade him for a veteran bat.

Ben Francisco could be a possibility, but he has also shown an inability to play every day. Perhaps the Phillies would platoon Brown and Francisco or acquire a vet to platoon with Brown.

The organization is still hoping Brown can pan out, but if he is relied upon to succeed in 2012, it may be too much for the struggling young player.

If he is going to succeed, he will have to be eased into the role.

Worst Case Scenario—Domonic Brown is needed to start in left field either as an everyday guy or as a platoon at a time when he is not ready to play.