Thoughts on 4-2 Buffalo Bills During Bye Week: Midseason Assessment

If I would have told you before the NFL season began that the Buffalo Bills would be 4-2 coming into their bye week, and that they were two field goals shy of being 6-0, you would have probably thought I was off my rocker, or guilty of drinking too much of the Bills' Kool Aid.

But that is the reality of where the Bills are, and their bye week allows some much-needed time off for veterans that are nursing troublesome injuries that need to heal. With the final 10 games still ahead of the team, they need to get some players healthy and come back with a positive mental outlook, as they make their push for the playoffs.

Playoffs? That's right, I said playoffs. They have as much chance as anyone else in the AFC to qualify this year, and with wins over three playoff teams from last year—Kansas City, New England and Philadelphia—the Bills have demonstrated that they are ready to end their playoff drought this year.

Today, we will go through the entire team, looking at the positives and negatives and assessing what lies in store for the Bills.

Buffalo Bills on the Leaderboard

The highest-ranking Buffalo Bills player in any category is Fred Jackson, who ranks No. 2 in rushing with 601 yards through the first six games. Jackson is averaging 100 yards per game, and should have no trouble reaching the 1,000-yard plateau again.

The Bills defense, which finally broke their streak of allowing 450 yards in offense to opponents last week, has a trio of tacklers atop the NFL leaderboard. They are: George Wilson, No. 3 (57 tackles), Nick Barnett, No. 11 (48 tackles) and Jairus Byrd, No. 19 (46 tackles).

Ryan Fitzpatrick is ranked as the No. 7 quarterback in the NFL with a 95.3 rating. That is a career-high mark for Fitzpatrick, and if he can continue to play at the 90 level and above, the Bills' chances of winning will remain very high.

Steve Johnson is No. 22 in receiving with 382 yards, while David Nelson is No. 36 with 319 yards.

Our special teams are doing well this year. Brian Moorman is No. 10 in punting with 1,409 yards, while Rian Lindell is No. 13 in scoring with 50 points, while Fred Jackson is No. 26 in scoring with 36 points. Moorman is ranked No. 4 with an average of 50.3 yards per punt.

Finally, George Wilson is tied for No. 2 in the NFL with three interceptions, while Nick Barnett, Drayton Florence and Bryan Scott are all tied for No. 14 with two interceptions each.

Getting Healthy Again

The Bills have taken their fair share of injuries, (when have you heard that before?), and really need the time off to get some of their walking wounded back as close to 100 percent as is possible.

On defense, Kyle Williams, Torell Troup, Shawne Merriman, Chris Kelsay, Terrence McGee and Aaron Williams have all had to miss at least one game so far this year due to injury. Out of that group, the only two that probably will not be ready to go in Week 8, when the Bills host the Washington Redskins in Toronto, are the Williams boys, Kyle and Aaron.

On offense, Demetrius Bell, Kraig Urbik, Chris Hairston, Donald Jones and Roscoe Parrish are the players that have been injured so far this season. Parrish of course is gone on IR again. Hairston and Jones are both going to miss the Redskins game, and we are waiting for word on Bell to see if he will be ready.

Overall, the offensive line, wide receivers and linebackers have been hit the hardest so far. The injuries have tested the Bills' roster depth at all three positions, and if anything, it is remarkable that the Bills have players on the roster that offer such great flexibility in the positions that they can play. Those players would be Bryan Scott, Arthur Moats, Andy Levitre, Brad Smith and C.J. Spiller. Without those five guys, the Bills would have been in a jam many times this year already.

Jim Overdorf Is Going To Be Busy

If you are not familiar with the name Jim Overdorf, don't feel bad. He typically doesn't get many headlines. But he is the guy under Buddy Nix that is responsible for negotiating new contracts for Bills players. Right now, it looks like it is the 11th hour between Overdorf and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Fitzpatrick's agent in getting a new deal done.

It is rumored that the deal will fall in to the $9 million-$12 million range. Sewing up Fitzpatrick for the long-term makes sense, as it is clear that he has become adept at running Chan Gailey's spread offense. We all know what happened when Paul Posluszny hit the free-agent market this past summer, so the Bills don't want to let the same thing happen to their quarterback.

Once the Fitzpatrick deal is done (which the Bills want to see happen prior to the Redskins game in Toronto), then the team can turn their attention to making Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson happy. Johnson is playing out the final year of his contract (making $550,000 this year). Fred Jackson has another year left on his deal, but is far surpassing his contract (see Chris Johnson) in terms of his worth to the Bills.

Following players are all playing on their final year of their current deal, along with their compensation this year (salary information from Rotoworld.com): Erik Pears ($640,000), Kraig Urbik ($480,000), Scott Chandler ($1.2 million), Demetrius Bell ($550,000), Roscoe Parrish ($1.025 million), Namaan Roosevelt (compensation is undisclosed), Andra Davis ($1.1 million) and Bryan Scott ($1.15 million).

Looking ahead to the 2012 season, the two players the Bills might want to consider signing to an extension to keep them happy are Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd. They have identical contracts. Both will earn $480,000 this year and then $565,000 in 2012. They are bargains at that price and the Bills will need to step up financially to keep them here past their original rookie contracts.

Bills Quiet During the Trade Deadline

Last year as the Bills worked their way into October, Buddy Nix made his first trade, sending running back Marshawn Lynch to the Seattle Seahawks. This year, Nix was quiet on the trade front, and the Bills did not conduct any trades. The big trade of course, happened before the season, when the Bills sent Lee Evans to the Baltimore Ravens. Evans has been missing in action due to a bad ankle injury.

Now that we are approaching the midway mark of the season, where do the Bills need help? It seems that the wide receiver position is the one area that is in need of some help. If either David Nelson or Stevie Johnson goes down, the Bills will clearly be short-handed. It helps that Brad Smith and C.J. Spiller can line up at receiver and catch some passes, but there are guys on the roster that don't seem to have much of a role that could easily go to another productive receiver.

Kirk Morrison, the veteran linebacker, has one tackle on the year through six games. LB Andra Davis is being replaced by Kelvin Sheppard, so one has to wonder how long he will remain on the team.

The Bills could have made a play for veteran receivers Brandon Lloyd or Reggie Wayne, but opted not to. Lloyd of course was traded to St. Louis, while Wayne still remains with the Colts. Ex-Bills WR Terrell Owens has now received medical clearance to work out again. Owens is slated to hold an open workout for NFL teams to see where he is on his rehab, which will occur on Tuesday, October 25. Curious to see if Buddy Nix or other Bills personnel attends the session.

Pleasant Surprises

The Bills have been one of the pleasant surprise teams in the 2011 season. They play an exciting brand of football, and it has been rewarding as a Bills fan to see the rest of the NFL paying attention. I have counted at least three, possibly four, of the Bills' games so far that have been featured on NFL Rewind, when the NFL Network will choose the best three games of the prior week to re-broadcast in a condensed version during the week.

Seeing them featured so often bodes well for the Bills to become a regular feature on nationally televised games in 2012, since they are slated for no appearances again this year. The networks are missing out on exciting football. The Bills battle all four quarters, have a dynamic offense that can strike from anywhere (game against the New York Giants proved that) and the defense leads the NFL with 16 turnovers.

In terms of individual players that have been pleasant surprises, I would have to list Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Andy Levitre, C.J. Spiller, Kraig Urbik, Demetrius Bell, Scott Chandler and Erik Pears as the players on offense that have either stepped up their production to another level, or have just surprised me with their level of play.

On defense, the same can be said for Jairus Byrd, George Wilson, Bryan Scott, Nick Barnett, Danny Batten and Alex Carrington.

I had high hopes for Shawne Merriman, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Aaron Williams, but that quartet has had flashes of good play, but have been limited due to injuries or just being inexperienced. That this quartet of Bills that haven't lived up to higher expectations, is one of the reasons the defense has been giving up so many yards and been on the field so long.

National Analysts Are Paying More Attention to the Bills

Several examples of the type of national attention the Bills are starting to generate due to their strong start to the 2011 season:

From Pete Prisco of CBS Sports on the play of Andy Levitre:

"

The Bills pushed the Eagles around last week. One of the guys who played a big part was left guard Andy Levitre. He mauled the Eagles defenders lined up over him in the run game and did a nice job in pass protection. He is a feisty player who makes up for his lack of size with a tenacious style. He's one of the rising interior linemen in this league. Watch him. You'll see.

"

More from Prisco, in the same article as above, this time on George Wilson: 

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Is there any safety playing better than Buffalo's George Wilson right now? He was all over the field against the Eagles. Wilson had 11 tackles, three passes defensed, a tackle for loss and an interception. The Bills lined him up at the line -- where he got his tackle for loss -- and also in coverage. Whenever a play was made, Wilson's No. 37 seemed to be in the area.

"

From Peter King of Sports Illustrated on his Monday Morning QB article on Fred Jackson:

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Fred Jackson is, by far, the most under-appreciated running back in football. It wouldn't surprise me if he becomes a star for the Bills the way Thurman Thomas was. Sixteen for 121 Sunday. Just another day .

"

From Michael Lombardi of NFL Network on Ryan Fitzpatrick:

"

With the Bills down 21-3 at halftime, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick rallied his team to victory by leading touchdown drives on each of the five possessions Buffalo had in the second half. The last drive, the Bills converted on fourth down for the winning score. Fitzpatrick has now played two excellent games and the Bills are 2-0.

Even though the Bills probably don't have five players that most of America can name, they play hard, they play tough and they never stop competing. The Bills might not be perfect, but like they did at the end of last season, they will play everyone tough.

"

Can the Bills Make the Playoffs This Year?

At 4-2, the Bills have a realistic chance to reach the playoffs. Here is the rundown of their remaining 10 games on the schedule: Week 8 in Toronto to play the Washington Redskins; Week 9 at home against the New York Jets; Week 10 at Dallas Cowboys; Week 11 at Miami Dolphins; Week 12 at New York Jets; Week 13 at home against Tennessee Titans; Week 14 at San Diego Chargers; Week 15 at home against Miami Dolphins; Week 16 at home against Denver Broncos; and they close it out Week 17 at the New England Patriots.

Wouldn't that be something if the Bills had to win at Foxboro in Week 17 and beat Brady again to sweep the Patriots? It could happen, but you would have had a hard time convincing me of that before the season started.

If you look at the above schedule, the Bills would need to go 6-4 to have a realistic shot of at least a wild-card berth. You would like to think that they can sweep the winless Dolphins and beat Denver, so that is three of the six wins that they need. They will have to beat the Jets at least once if they want to be a playoff team, so that leaves two more wins out of the Chargers, Cowboys, Redskins, Titans and Patriots games. If you look at it from that perspective, you would have to like their chances.

Assuming that there are no other major injury surprises awaiting them around the corner.

What To Do About the Pass Rush and Run Defense?

The Bills attempted to fix some of their defensive deficiencies by attempting to go back to the 4-3 look against the Giants, but in the end, they were still not able to prevent the Giants from scoring the final field goal that cost them the game.

After six games, the Bills find that they are ranked as No. 31 in overall defense, allowing 420 yards per game. The New England Patriots are dead last, giving up three more yards per game (423.7). The pass defense is ranked No. 30 (284.8 yards per game) and the rush defense is ranked No. 29 (135.7) yards per game. The bend-but-don't-break mentality on defense has them ranked slightly higher in allowing points to be scored on them, as they average giving up 24.5 points, ranked No. 22 in the league.

Bills have allowed 142 first downs by their opponents, which is No. 31 in the league. Only team worse is the Oakland Raiders, who have allowed 148 first downs. The Bills are fairly stingy on third downs, as they have only allowed 26 conversions, which ranks them No. 11. Most of the damage is done repeatedly on first and second downs.

The biggest problem is that the front seven has to do a better job of penetrating the offensive line and creating negative plays that go for a loss. Sustaining a better pass rush is paramount, and if Shawne Merriman and Chris Kelsay are not up to the challenge, then they will continue to lose playing time to the likes of Danny Batten, Alex Carrington and Arthur Moats. Curious to see if the team brings back Antonio Coleman, who was showing good flashes in the preseason.

As long as Kyle Williams is hurt, the Bills defense is more suspect. Marcell Dareus shows potential, but he is usually too far away to reach the quarterback. It seems like he is either one or two steps away from being able to come up with a sack. He will need to step up his play as well over the second half. The benching of Andra Davis for Kelvin Sheppard is deemed as a positive, because Davis is just too slow. Sheppard will bring a higher energy level to the defense and hope he can make more big plays.

As much as we criticize the defense, they still lead the NFL in creating turnovers with 16, and scoring a touchdown in three straight games has been their saving grace. Without the touchdowns and all those turnovers, the Bills would not be 4-2 right now.

Can't Really Ask for Much More from the Offense

Chan Gailey has done a great job at getting the most out of his offense personnel. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing at the best of his abilities and Fred Jackson is looking like he is playing at his best as well.

Stevie Johnson is still leading the team in receiving, but he has failed to come up with a monster game like he did last year. He is the guy that every defense wants to slow down, and it is clear that he misses Lee Evans from taking more of the pressure off of him. But Johnson will always come up with his share of plays, as his quickness and elusiveness in gaining separation from cornerbacks is a key part of the offense.

The offensive line is humming along, in spite of the injuries to Demetrius Bell, Kraig Urbik and Chris Hairston. Hairston did surprisingly well based on the limited training camp and individual coaching time he received due to the labor lockout. We have already sighted how well Levitre has been playing, and the blocking of Urbik and Eric Wood was on display last week when Fred Jackson ripped off an 80-yard run against the New York Giants.

Scott Chandler was more of a force in the early stages of the season, and the Bills seem hesitant to keep throwing the ball to him lately. He is still a force in the red zone, and the red zone is where the Bills thrive, as they are still ranked No. 1 in the NFL in red-zone scoring. That is a big reason why they are 4-2, along with leading the NFL in creating turnovers.

Brad Smith is everything that he was advertised to be in running the Wildcat offense. He has been very adept at converting third-down situations and being able to move the ball. He has shown decent hands as a receiver, but his kick return game has been greatly hindered by the new kickoff rules.

C.J. Spiller had a positive game last week as a receiver. He is running with the ball better this year, but it is hard to take Fred Jackson out when he is performing at such a high level.

Fred Jackson Should Be in All MVP Conversations

Fred Jackson in my opinion is having an MVP-caliber season. He has excelled at running the ball, catching the ball and pass protection. He has been outstanding at catching poorly thrown screen passes and creating big plays out of them.

Jackson is just having a monster year. He is averaging 5.7 yards every time he runs with the ball. He is averaging 11.6 yards every time he catches a pass. In the first six games to date, Jackson is averaging 147 total yards of offense. That takes a huge load off of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the receivers.

The thing about Jackson that is unique is his running style. He runs in an erect fashion, but has a very smooth gait to his running approach. He is great at making the first tackler miss and is usually able to gain additional yards after that initial contact with a defender. His pass blocking is rock-solid and he takes great care of the football. In 130 touches so far this year, Jackson has not fumbled the ball once.

If the Bills keep winning, and Jackson performs at this level for the rest of the year, it will be hard for the league to ignore his accomplishments when it comes time for hardware at the end of the season. If the Bills make the playoffs, that would improve Jackson's MVP chances even more.

Freddy, Freddy, Freddy!

Remembering Kent Hull

Didn't have a chance to write about the passing of former Bills center Kent Hull earlier this week, but wanted to include his memory, and his family are in my thoughts and prayers this week.

Hull was a great teammate, and the best friend of quite a few Bills players from the Super Bowl era teams. It is debatable if he will ever be enshrined in the NFL Hall of Fame, but being on the Bills Ring of Honor at Ralph Wilson Stadium is quite an honor in its own right.

Hull was durable, tough and was the quarterback of the offensive line. If Eric Wood can evolve into another Kent Hull, that would be a great development for the Bills.

R.I.P. Kent Hull. You will always be remembered for being a great player and great friend to the Bills organization.

Any Other Surprises To Expect in the Second Half of Season

One item that has seemingly died down to a degree is the development of Michael Jasper. The Bills knew that he was a prospect, but they weren't originally positive if he would be a better offensive lineman or a defensive lineman. It appears that since there has been no news, that is good news.

Jasper is working with the practice squad to develop his game. Whether or not Jasper reaches the active roster this year remains to be seen. Best guess is that he is on the active roster in 2012 and fighting for playing time.

In case you have lost track of the rest of the Bills practice squad, their other current members are: WR Kamar Aiken, TE Mike Caussin, DT Lionel Dotson, CB Doyle Miller, DB Joshua Nesbitt, WR Tim Toone and G Keith Williams. From the current practice squad, the only player I wouldn't be surprised to see activated later in the year is receiver Kamar Aiken. He showed enough talent in the preseason that I can see him following in the footsteps of David Nelson, Donald Jones and Naaman Roosevelt.

Other potential second-half season surprises will be the development of the 2012 rookie class. Expecting to see better play out of Marcell Dareus, the return of Aaron Williams, how Kelvin Sheppard evolves as a starter and more snaps for Da'Norris Searcy, Chris Hairston and Johnny White.

Chris White has helped on special teams and we wonder how much Justin Rogers will be asked to do. Hasn't been able to make much of an impact as of yet.

Other potential surprises could be seeing new additions to the Bills starting to see some playing time. That would include tackle Sam Young, TE Lee Smith and further development with C.J. Spiller. Kellen Heard has shown some promise and we are already seeing Danny Batten and Arthur Moats make contributions. Torell Troup is due to make more of an impact, as is Alex Carrington.

Bills Fans Are Ready To Embrace the Final 10 Games

I went back to Buffalo for the home game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Great game to see, and had a great time roaming around the tailgating crowds as they prepared for the kickoff. Spent a couple hours in the field house, and enjoyed meeting Bills lead analyst Chris Brown during a break in the pregame show.

The Bills hope to end their regular-season losing streak up in Toronto next weekend. They have to be used to playing games there by now, so they should clearly have more of an advantage of knowing how to play on that field, as opposed to their opponents, the Washington Redskins.

The Bills need a win to bounce back from the Giants game and keep their playoff hopes alive. Due to the Giants loss, the Bills now trail the Patriots by one game, so it is important they don't fall any further behind. If the Chargers can beat the Jets this weekend, that would also help to give the Bills a little breathing room. Wouldn't mind seeing a little wind being let out of the Jets' sails either.

Let's hope that there are not too many new injuries to report from practice next week in preparation for the Redskins. John Beck gets his first start this weekend, so the Bills will at least have an idea of what the Redskins want to ask him to do this coming Sunday.