MLB World Series Predictions: Cardinals Will Cool off Nelson Cruz

If you were to ask the Detroit Tigers, they will probably tell you that they should have done a number of things differently in the American League Championship Series against the Texas Rangers.

First and foremost, they'll probably tell you that they shouldn't have pitched to Nelson Cruz as often. They let him swing away 22 times, and he connected for six home runs, a new record for a single postseason series.

Cruz also drove in 13 runs, another single-series postseason record. If I may be so bold as to utter an understatement, Cruz had a pretty good series.

But Cruz and the Rangers aren't done yet. The World Series starts tonight, and Cruz and friends are tasked with winning four games against a St. Louis Cardinals team that is very hot at the right time.

Because one assumes that the Cardinals were able to take note of what Cruz did to the Tigers, I think it's safe to say that they'll be looking to keep him in the park, lest he catch fire and lead the Rangers to their first World Series victory.

Maybe it's just me, but I think they will.

I would love to offer some fancy-pants pitching statistics that support such a claim; but the truth is that I came to this conclusion via a much simpler line of logic. While I have no doubt that the incomparable Tony La Russa will be at his button-pushing best whenever Cruz strolls to the plate, he can rest comfortably knowing that the law of averages is on his side.

In plain English, there's just no way Cruz is going to be able to keep up the pace that he set against the Tigers. He was hot, but he was a little too hot.

Just take a look at what Cruz did against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Division Series. He had just one hit in 15 at-bats, and he did not have a single RBI.

Cruz wasn't much hotter in September either. In 42 at-bats, he had just eight hits, a batting average of .190. Only one of his eight hits left the park.

Given Cruz's struggles prior to the ALCS, I think you can chalk his sudden hotness up to two possibilities: He either found his swing, or the baseball gods were smiling upon him. The latter possibility is basically saying that he got lucky.

I'm definitely oversimplifying things, but those who are familiar with Cruz should agree that he's a very streaky hitter. Sometimes he's up, and sometimes he's down.

He was down in the ALDS, up in the ALCS, so logic suggests he'll be down in the World Series.

Unless, of course, the baseball gods are still smiling upon him. Their ways can be mysterious like that.