Andrew Luck Sweepstakes: Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts Are the Favorites

On a rainy and windy South Florida afternoon, I decided to check out the scores to some of the other games since the Dolphins had a bye this week (the bye would wind up beating Miami 17-14 on a last-second field goal, by the way). 

Unlike most normal people, I mainly checked out the games featuring the other potential Suck for Luck teams, including Jacksonville (lost to Cincinnati at home), Minnesota (defeated Arizona, and by the way, I think Minnesota finishes with six wins so count them out) and of course the Super Bowl of the other Suck for Luck teams, the Chiefs-Colts matchup. 

The first time I checked the score, Kansas City was down 17. This was good for Miami because with Indianapolis getting the victory, and with St. Louis already having their QB of the future and needing to build around him, Miami is now in the pole position for Luck, right?

Wrong—the Colts blew it and lost to Kansas City 28-24. Now Indianapolis stands at 0-5 while Miami's loss to the bye doesn't count on the official NFL record. 

It's going to come down to Miami and Indianapolis in the race to Andrew Luck, and here's why. 

1. Kansas City Is Now Back in Their Own Driver's Seat

Kansas City now sits at 2-3, and one look at their upcoming schedule says that 5-3 and first place in the AFC West isn't out of the question. 

Next week the Chiefs travel to Oakland. As good as the Raiders have looked this season, the Chiefs can still beat the Raiders, who still have yet to really wow me. (I won't count Houston on that list; the Texans are always due for a letdown game.)

After that is a Monday night game against San Diego, who despite their good 4-1 start look a bit shaky to me. The last time these two played (two weeks ago in fact), the Chiefs came close to losing it. 

If the Chiefs win these two games, we're looking at a 3-3 team with home dates against the Dolphins and Broncos. 

The Chiefs still have hope, so I don't see any reason why they would go into tank mode now. The AFC West is still winnable for them despite the injuries and locker-room tension they've faced. 

2. St. Louis Doesn't Need a Quarterback, but Does Need Other Pieces

Unlike the Colts who need someone to carry Peyton's torch for the next decade-and-a-half, and the Dolphins who are still looking for someone to carry Marino's torch after a decade, St. Louis is set in the quarterback department.

It's the rest of the team that needs work. 

St. Louis needs wide receivers, an offensive line and help on defense. 

So while they're still candidates to Suck for Luck, Luck won't be their quarterback. 

The only teams who would be really desperate for Luck are the Dolphins and Colts (I'll hold off on Denver, who will likely give Tebow one more year after this season and who will likely win two or three games for them). Miami would be the only team willing to make a desperate Mike Ditka-esque, Ricky Williams-type trade for Luck, but I doubt they do that if they have the No. 2 pick. 

I also doubt Indianapolis does this, especially if Peyton will be ready for next season (which he should be). 

This means St. Louis will have a No. 1 pick that will be hard for them to sell off at the value they'd want (three No. 1's and two No. 2's seem fair). 

They'll go with Matt Kalil, which is likely their plan anyways. 

3. Jacksonville Is in the Same Division as Indianapolis

Here's part of why I vacillate between the Dolphins and Colts as to who has the pole position. 

Miami's in a division with three potential playoff teams. 

Indianapolis has one team that should be great but always finds a way to screw up against everyone except the Dolphins (Houston 8-8's—sorry, Texans), a young team who's hanging in there despite their best player performing at sub-par levels (Tennessee Titans) and then the Jaguars. 

Because of this, anything is possible. The Jaguars could sweep the Colts, the Colts could sweep the Jags or they could split. None of them are out of the realm of possibility. 

This is good news for the Dolphins, as you will see later. 

4. Miami Is in a Division with Three Potential Playoff Teams

As opposed to the Colts, who could still get a Texans choke job, a Titans off day and play the Jags twice, Miami will likely go 1-5 against the AFC East (I do think the Jets would tank the final game against the 'Phins if they're either in the postseason or already out of it; with Andrew Luck in Miami, Sanchez becomes the division's fourth-best quarterback which isn't a slight on Sanchez but more an affirmation of how I feel about Luck). 

That's two games against the Bills, two games against the Jets and one more tilt with the Patriots. 

Have I mentioned that one of the Buffalo games will be in Buffalo in December, while their next Patriots game will be in Foxborough on Christmas Eve?

5. Both Teams Have Tough Schedules Going Forward

We've already mentioned how the Colts will have the easier division schedule, but will definitely make up for it with their out-of-division schedule. 

Out of conference, the Colts have the Saints, Falcons, better-than-their-record Panthers, Baltimore and New England. Ouch!

With Miami aside from their murder division, they also have Washington, Dallas, a Philly team better than their record, the Giants and Oakland. 

Colts' upcoming opponents' winning percentage: .518. 

Dolphins' upcoming opponents' winning percentage: .534. 

6. Indianapolis Will Still Have Stability After the Season

The Indianapolis Colts are lead by Bill Polian, their vice-chairman. His son Chris is the vice president/general manager. While their drafts have lacked in the past (look at the team this season), Bill is regarded around the league as one of the best executives; he's won the NFL's Executive of the Year award six times between 1988 and 2009. 

Before building the Colts into what they were in the last decade (winningest team in the NFL), Polian presided over a Panthers team that made the NFC Championship game in only their second season of play (1996) and was instrumental in building the Buffalo Bills squads that ruled the AFC in the early '90s. 

Needless to say, Bill Polian won't be fired from Indianapolis. 

Polian is also generally patient with his head coaches. The last coach he fired was Jim Mora. Before that it was Lindy Infante whom he fired last, and he was a product of the previous Colts administration. 

Before that though, you'd have to go all the way back to when he first took over as GM of the Buffalo Bills in 1986 when he instilled Marv Levy as their head coach. 

Safe to say that with two division championships and a Super Bowl appearance in the bank, Jim Caldwell won't have to worry about losing his job either.

With job security comes a more relaxed atmosphere. I'm not going to say that the Colts are tanking it, but if they did no one would lose their jobs. Now on the other side...

7. However, with the Dolphins, It's the Opposite

While Indianapolis has the stability that would allow them to tank (if that's what they're doing), in Miami the instability is what might wind up costing them Andrew Luck. 

Prior to this season this was the statement made by Stephen Ross in a not-so-subtle (or eco-friendly) way:

Either playoffs, or unemployment line. 

Miami can kiss that playoff ship goodbye. It breaks my heart to say that but it's true. 

But the unemployment line might not exactly be where Ireland and Sparano will be headed if they could somehow finish the season strong. 

Add to that many of the players will be looking for paydays (looking at Cameron Wake), and what you have is a team that is almost guaranteed to try. 

What sense does it make for Ireland, who I'm sure would like a job with another NFL team that could compete with Miami in the future, to have the team lose to draft Andrew Luck? He won't be there. 

And what sense would it make for Sparano, who I'm sure would like a job as an offensive line coach with another NFL team that could compete with Miami in the future, to have the team lose to draft Andrew Luck? He won't be there either, and it would damage his record, which would make him getting another NFL head coaching job nearly impossible (if it isn't already). 

On top of that, while Polian and his crew in Indy understand that this might be a lost season and already have tons of goodwill built up with Colts fans who have seen a winning team in the last decade, Miami doesn't have any of those luxuries, and worst of all, the coaches and front office actually think that this is a good team. 

See, the only people at this moment who think the Miami Dolphins actually have a shot at turning this season around are people who work for the Miami Dolphins (and even then, I highly doubt that their human resources, media, marketing or any other non-football department actually thinks that). 

This means you'll have a Dolphins team that will play hard. I'm not sure you could say the same thing about the Colts, although we could be just so used to Indy winning and also used to saying that football is a team game that their 2011 season might seem jarring to us. 

And the Front-Runner Is...

After looking at everything, I'm willing to peg the Dolphins as slight favorites over the Colts in the Andrew Luck race based off of their tougher division schedule as well as their tougher road opponents.  

But as the season goes on, this could change. 

Indianapolis could get a surprise win over the Bengals (holy did I really just type that)? 

But as much as I'm really pained to say it, the Jets will beat the Dolphins, but it will be close (Jets are in a tailspin and it could take a half against the Dolphins for them to right the ship—er, aircraft). 

Thomas Galicia is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist who also writes about music, movies, the Miami Heat whenever this stupid NBA lockout ends (and he's praying it's soon), the Chicago Cubs and the WWE. He also knows that most of you will disagree with him on this subject. That's what the comments are for; tell him he's wrong, or if you agree with him, tell him he's right. Then visit www.thomasgalicia.com and follow him on Twitter, @thomasgalicia.