St. Louis Rams: Handicapping the Rams' Chances in the NFC West

The St. Louis Rams are dead in the water.  Before the season started, I picked the Rams to win the NFC West.  Their schedule was brutal, but I thought they could start with a 2-2 split.  I thought they had the best quarterback in the division.  I even wrote that the Rams would run away with the NFC West.

If it were only that simple.

The Rams have been decimated by injuries to key players, while the San Francisco 49ers have played great football under rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh.  The San Francisco 49ers have a choke hold on the NFC West right now.  Not only are the 49ers 4-1, the only team in the division with a winning record by the way, but they have wins over playoff teams.  With the teams in the NFC West playing the NFC East and the AFC North, this point can not be overstated.

The 49ers have some big wins while the rest of the division has some bad losses.

So who is going to win the NFC West?  Do the Rams still have a chance, or should we just go ahead and say, "The St. Louis Rams are on the clock," right now? 

Today, I'm going to break down the remaining schedule for all of the NFC West teams.  I'll show you the games the Rams have to win and the games the 49ers have to lose if the Rams are even going to have a chance. 

Arizona Cardinals, 1-4

The Cardinals are 1-4, and they haven't even hit the toughest part of their schedule yet.  The most "winnable game" they have for a long time is a home game against the Rams in Week 9.  That could be a game between the worst two teams in the NFL, with the Rams coming into that game 0-7 and the Cardinals entering the game 1-6.

The good news for the Cardinals is that they can move the ball.  They average over 340 yards of total offense, scoring 19.2 points per game.  They have Larry Fitzgerald, arguably the best WR in the NFL.  The problem has been a so-so defense and QB Kevin Kolb.  So far Kolb has a 77.2 QB rating, throwing only five touchdowns to go with six interceptions.

Kolb has to play better.  If he does, the Cardinals could maybe get to six or seven wins.

Here is the Cardinals' remaining schedule:

Week 6 - Bye

Week 7 - Pittsburgh, LOSS

Week 8 - at Baltimore, LOSS

Week 9 - St. Louis, a must-win game, LOSS

Week 10 - at Philadelphia, LOSS

Week 11 - at San Francisco, LOSS

Week 12 - at St. Louis, in free-fall mode, LOSS

Week 13 - Dallas, LOSS

Week 14 - San Francisco, LOSS

Week 15 - Cleveland, WIN

Week 16 - at Cincinnati, WIN

Week 17 - Seattle, WIN

The Cardinals finish the season 4-12.  With the fourth pick in the draft, they select Justin Blackmon, the WR out of Oklahoma State.  With Kolb, Fitzgerald, Blackmon and a stable of good, young running backs, the future looks bright for the Cards.

Seattle Seahawks, 2-3

The Seahawks are 2-3, with a couple of key wins.  They beat Arizona, and that is a division win.  They beat the New York Giants, and that is a win over a possible playoff team.  So the Seahawks have done a nice job so far this season.

They average 288 yards per game, putting up 18.8 points.  Tarvaris Jackson has a QB rating of 81, and he has played some pretty good football.  Unfortunately for Seattle, Jackson was injured in yesterday's game against the Giants, and he could be out for quite some time.

Charlie Whitehurst is the Seahawks' backup QB.  He put up a QB rating of 100.5 in backup duty yesterday, and Whitehurst does have some experience.  The Seahawks do have a fairly favorable schedule, with several key games remaining on their schedule being home games.

Here is how it all breaks down for Seattle:

Week 6 - BYE

Week 7 - at Cleveland, WIN

Week 8 - Cincinnati, WIN, Seahawks are now 4-3, in playoff contention

Week 9 - at Dallas, LOSS

Week 10 - Baltimore, LOSS, Seahawks are now 4-5, out of the playoff picture

Week 11 - at St. Louis, a must win, LOSS

Week 12 - Washington, WIN

Week 13 - Philadelphia, LOSS, Seahawks are now 5-7, virtually eliminated from playoffs

Week 14 - St. Louis, this is a 50/50 game, LOSS

Week 15 - at Chicago, LOSS

Week 16 - San Francisco, WIN, I just can't see the 49ers going 6-0 in the division

Week 17 - at Arizona, LOSS

The Seahawks finish the season 6-10, pushing them just far enough back that they won't get one of the elite young QB's in the draft (Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones).  Picking 10th, Pete Carroll shocks everybody by selecting a linebacker that everybody else had a third-round grade for. 

Come on, you know I had to at least make one Pete Carroll joke today.

St. Louis Rams, 0-4

The Rams are 0-4, and they might be the worst team in football.  Simply put, the Rams have zero playmakers.  The one weapon Sam Bradford can count on, Steven Jackson, has been injured.

So Bradford can't even count on him!

I think the NFL lockout hurt the Rams as much as any team in the league.  First, they have a new offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels).  Second, they have several young players on offense (rookies Lance Kendricks, Austin Pettis, Greg Salas and second-year player Danario Alexander).  Finally, they were decimated by injuries to their defensive secondary.  So the one strength the Rams had, defense, was neutralized with so many injuries to one area of the team.

And I almost forgot, the offensive line stinks.

Add it all up, and the Rams are a hot steaming mess.  Here is how they will finish:

Week 6 - at Green Bay, hahahaha...LOSS

Week 7 - at Dallas, the Cowboys aren't that good, but let's be honest...LOSS

Week 8 - New Orleans, the game is at home, but come on...LOSS 

Week 9 - at Arizona, a very losable game, but I'm calling it...WIN

Week 10 - at Cleveland, the Browns have been really bad also, WIN

Week 11 - Seattle, home game, the team is rolling, WIN

Week 12 - Arizona, home game, let's keep this going, WIN

Week 13 - at San Francisco, if we want to win the division this is a must win...LOSS

Week 14 - at Seattle, a very losable game, depends on Spags' job security...WIN

Week 15 - Cincinnati, WIN

Week 16 - at Pittsburgh, LOSS

Week 17 - @ San Francisco, the 49ers will need to win to clinch a bye, LOSS

The Rams finish a respectable 6-10.  Not bad considering they started the season 0-7, and after Week 9 they had to play high school kids in the secondary.  The Rams will be picking ninth in the NFL draft, where they will shock the world by selecting Trent Richardson, the stud RB out of Alabama.  The Rams immediately announce that they've traded Steven Jackson to the Detroit Lions for the Lions' second and fifth-round picks. 

Jackson gives the Lions the power running game to complement the Stafford/Megatron combo, and the Lions wind up in the Super Bowl.  The Rams use the extra second-round pick on a tight end out of Northwestern University that nobody has ever heard of.  Josh McDaniels assures Rams fans that this kid is a stud, and he is the perfect fit in the "Five Tight End Offense" that he plans to run in St. Louis.

Somewhere, fans in Denver are rolling on the floor laughing.

San Francisco 49ers, 4-1

The 49ers are playing some dang good football right now.  They are 4-1, averaging over 28 points per game, and their offense is gaining about 300 yards per game.  They have produced eight interceptions as a team, they have a power running game led by RB Frank Gore and Alex Smith is completing 65.9 percent of his passes.

Ladies and gentleman, Alex Smith has a QB rating of 104.1.

Give Jim Harbaugh a ton of credit.  He has changed the culture in San Francisco, getting this team to play smart, tough, physical football.  I called it before the season started, the 49ers probably have the most talent in the division.  They have playmakers on both sides of the ball.  The problem was Smith.  The former No. 1 overall pick in the draft wasn't living up to expectations, and in today's NFL, if you don't have a QB, you don't have a chance.

The 49ers have already picked up big wins over Seattle (a division game), Philly (the "Dream Team") and Tampa Bay (a playoff-caliber team).  Their only loss was to the Cowboys when the 'Boys made a miracle, come-from-behind comeback. 

So the 49ers are for real.  The schedule only gets easier from here on out:

Week 6 - at Detroit, LOSS

Week 7 - Bye

Week 8 - Cleveland, WIN

Week 9 - at Washington, WIN, the 'Skins have overachieved, but don't have a lot of talent.

Week 10 - NYG, WIN, I'm just down on the Giants after that loss to the 'Hawks

Week 11 - Arizona, WIN

Week 12 - at Baltimore, LOSS, Ravens are the best team in the AFC

Week 13 - St. Louis, interesting game, WIN

Week 14 - at Arizona, WIN

Week 15 - Pittsburgh, a winnable game, at home...LOSS

Week 16 - at Seattle, LOSS, I just don't think the 49ers can run the table in the NFC West

Week 17 - at St. Louis, need a win to clinch a bye, WIN

The 49ers finish the season 11-5.  They win the tiebreaker over New Orleans and have a bye in the first round of the playoffs.  Unfortunately for 49ers fans, they draw the winner of the Atlanta vs. Philly game, and Philly comes back to San Francisco with revenge on their mind.

The Eagles remember their embarrassing loss in San Francisco back in Week 4.  They decide, "Hey, instead of trying this 'Wide 9' crap, why don't we put eight guys in the box and stop Frank Gore."  The plan works to perfection, as Alex Smith is forced to carry the team.  Unfortunately for Smith, he doesn't have the weapons that Vick has, so he loses a shootout, 38-31.

The 49ers have the 26th pick in the draft, and they use it to select Courtney Upshaw, the outstanding OLB out of Alabama.  Upshaw gives the 49ers one more great defensive player, assuring that the 49ers will keep distancing themselves from the rest of the NFC West.

Final Analysis

So can anybody catch the 49ers?  Probably not.

But if there is one team that can make this interesting, it's the Rams.  First, the Rams are getting back Mark Clayton after Week 6.  Clayton is on the Physically Unable to Perform list, and as such, isn't eligible to play until after Week 6.  Second, the Rams just came off of their bye week, meaning they had a two-week break to get healthy and get more familiar with Josh McDaniels' offense.

If the Rams could win one of the next three games (at Green Bay, at Dallas, New Orleans), they would be 1-6 heading into a Week 9 matchup with Arizona.  Sure, it's unlikely they will win one of those three games, but this is the NFL.  Who thought San Francisco would beat Philly?  Who thought the Seahawks would beat the Giants?  Eventually, the Rams are going to win a game like this.

So if they could "steal" a game and then split with San Francisco, just beat them in St. Louis, the Rams could finish the season 8-8.  That would give the Rams a fighting chance.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have been healthy.  What if they get banged up?  What if Alex Smith stops playing out of his mind and starts playing like...Alex Smith?  I have them going 11-5, but if they split with the Rams, split with the Cardinals, and lose one more game to either the Giants (possible) or Washington (not likely)...

I'm just saying.  The 49ers definitely have a choke hold on the NFC West right now, but the Rams are still breathing.  Barely, but they are still breathing.