The Green Bay Packers and 6 Super Bowl Favorites: Sportsbook Odds vs. Mine

Hello there, fine people of the Bleacher Report.

Thank you for stumbling upon my first article here, and I hope you enjoy it!

Today we'll be looking at the seven favorites to win the Super Bowl (all odds are from an on-line sports book) and what I think their real chances are of pulling off a win in Indianapolis come February.

7. San Diego Chargers

Sports book Odds: 10:1

Biggest Strength

 Without a doubt the Chargers biggest strength is the Phillip Rivers. While I've never been the biggest fan of his, it's impossible to ignore the numbers he can put up.

Having eclipsed 4,000 yards each of the past three seasons, with TD-INT ratios of 30:13, 28:9 and 34:11, he's been the one keeping this team as a Super Bowl favorite entering each of the past few seasons. But he is off to a shakier start this year, which leads me to the next point ...

Biggest Concern

 Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.

While Rivers has thrown for 979 yards through the three games so far, he only has four touchdowns to six interceptions.

This problem first reared it's ugly head against the Vikings, where the Chargers dug themselves a hole early. But, since the Vikings are the NFL equivalent to the NCAA team in the same city (sorry Gophers), they were able to come back and squeak out a seven point win.

They weren't so lucky against the Patriots, however, as two interceptions and two lost fumbles led to a 35-21 loss.

Then, this past Sunday, the load was put on Ryan Matthews, as Rivers threw two more interceptions. If he can get back to the Rivers of the past three years and stop throwing to the wrong jerseys, this team could be dangerous.

Real Odds

 It might be worth the change you can find in your couch.

6. Baltimore Ravens

Sports book Odds: 10:1

Biggest Strength

 It has to be their front seven. Let's take a look at some of their numbers, shall we? They rank sixth in the league in rush defense, allowing only 84 yards per game.

They're tied for seventh in the league with nine sacks on the year (four of which have come from one of my favorite players, Terrell Suggs).

They have forced five fumbles so far this year, have recovered all of them, and it was all by either linemen or linebackers. 

Biggest Concern

 The Uni-browed wonder himself, Joe Flacco.

He has the philosophy of letting your defense and running game do the work, try to not make any mistakes, and make the easy throws to pump up your stats a bit.

And this strategy can work (see: Giants), but if we look at Flacco's performances in the playoffs throughout his career, it tells the whole story of why I don't trust him.

Against the Chiefs he was decent, but with the short fields and the Chiefs having the defensive secondary equal to a wet bag, I wasn't impressed.

Then, they play a real defense like the Steelers, and he goes 16-for-30 for a whopping 125 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Go back a year and we see in the Wild Card round, against the Patriots, it was all defense again, with Flacco going 4-for-10 for 34 yards and one interception.

Real Odds

 Don't bet Flacco's uni-brow on it

5. New Orleans Saints

Sports book Odds: 10:1

Biggest Strength

 Once again, I have to go with the man pictured.

Drew Brees seems to be back in form after having a tough go of it last year—for him, at least.. He's second best when it comes to yards, at 1,059, and tied for second in touchdowns with nine. He has only thrown two interceptions so far, with a completion percentage of 68.5.

To be perfectly fair, though, none of the defenses he has gone up against (Packers, Bears, Texans) have been playing all that well this year, especially against the pass.

In fact, he doesn't face a really solid defense for a long time, this just might be a career year for Mr. Brees.

Biggest Concern

 We'll take a look at the other side of the ball for this one, and focus on their secondary.

They rank 27th in the league, allowing 282 yards per game, including 244 to Jay Cutler's comatose offense.

That shows me that when they play a quarterback who knows what he's doing and has weapons (Rodgers, Schaub), the Saints will consistently be picked apart.

And yes, Rodgers didn't put up huge yards, but he completed 27-for-35 for 3 touchdowns. I'd call that being torn up.

Real Odds

 Same odds as staying sober during Mardi Gras ... very unlikely

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sports book Odds: 10:1

Biggest Strength

 As is standard in the steel city, their pass defense has been phenomenal.

Sure, they haven't exactly played the elite quarterbacks of the league, in Joe Flacco, Seneca Wallace, and Kerry Collins/Curtis Painter, but still, only allowing 164 pass yards per game is impressive against anyone.

The defending AFC Champions look poised to make another run, as there isn't exactly a stand out team in the conference in my eyes.

Their biggest threat is probably the Patriots, and if they can keep Brady under control (might be a little trickier than Seneca Wallace), they'll be able to outscore the Pats and make a return to the Super Bowl. As long as Big Ben can stay on his feet.

Biggest Concern

 The offensive line has given up nine sacks so far this year, and haven't been able to open up any holes for the running game to fully get going.

The Steelers rank 23rd in the league in rushing offense with a measly 85.7 yards per game. The Ravens can take some credit for that as they allowed Pittsburgh to rush for just 66 yards, which is understandable against a front seven with that level of talent.

But to rush for just 67 yards against the Colts, with a pathetic 2.4 yards per carry? Their offensive line was a big reason for why they lost the Super Bowl last year, and it doesn't seem to have improved at all.

Real Odds

 If they improve their line, easily worth the money

3. Detroit Lions

Sports book Odds: 8:1

Biggest Strength

 Quite possibly the scariest defensive line in the league resides in Detroit.

As a lifelong Packers fan, I'm so used to watching Detroit and thinking, "Oh, look, they're trying to play football, isn't that adorable?"

Now if I think that I'm afraid Suh will show up to my house and smack me on the back of the head like he did Jay Cutler last year. Granted, they are 21st in the league when it comes to rushing yards, allowing 113 per contest, but that's because they've faced two teams that are terrified to let their quarterback throw the ball (Kansas City and Minnesota).

Against a team that has a competent quarterback, they allowed only 56 rush yards to the Bucs. With a defensive line like this, you can't count them out of any game.

Biggest Concern

 Their inability to run the ball is just painful to watch at times. Take their last game against the Vikings as a perfect example.

While in the second half they were playing catch up and throwing the ball more than usual, it's no excuse for Jahvid Best's 14 yards on 12 carries with a long of five, which was the longest carry of the day for Detroit.

As a team they've broken 100 once through the first three games, in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which works if you can have Matthew Stafford chucking the ball all over the place like he has been so far.

But when the weather gets cold, and you have to play a game in the elements—will that be enough?

Real Odds

 Worth a shot if you have a few bucks to spend

2. New England Patriots

Sports book Odds: 4.5:1

Biggest Strength

 I think we all know what this team's best piece is.

Believe it or not, it's the guy that's on pace to throw for over 7,000 yards and 58 touchdowns (obviously not actually going to happen but roll with it).

It's obviously Tom Brady. Words can't even describe how good he's been this year, including the Buffalo game where three of those interceptions weren't entirely his fault.

But to come back to Earth for just a second, Wes Welker is to thank for a lot of his stats so far this year. His ability to get yards after the catch is second to none, while his route running has been fantastic so far.

If Brady can keep it up when he faces an actual defense that will be coming after him, we'll see if he can stand strong and make his reads, or get sacked five times like he did against the Jets in the Divisional Round last year.

Biggest Concern

 Once again, I think we know this one.

Obviously their pass defense has just been awful to this point. Quite frankly, it should have cost them the game against the Chargers if San Diego wasn't so obsessed with shooting themselves in the foot.

Of course, it all started Week 1 on Monday Night against the Miami Dolphins, where, thanks to this pass defense, Dolphin fans were able to feel like they were watching Dan Marino again.

Since then they've been crudely reminded that it is in fact Chad Henne, but what a night that must have been. All thanks to the league's worst pass defense.

Real Odds

Odds are not high enough for me after seeing how they were torched by the Bills last week.

1. Green Bay Packers

Sports book Odds: 4.5:1

Biggest Strength

 The defending Super Bowl MVP, Aaron Rodgers.

He's just been lights out ever since Brett Favre begrudgingly handed the reigns over. He only missed the 4,000-yard mark once so far, and that was last year by 78 yards, while also never throwing less than 28 touchdowns or more than 13 interceptions.

He's certainly on pace to at least match his yardage and touchdowns, and looking to set a new low for picks. Averaging roughly 305 yards per game, he's already tossed eight touchdowns with only one interception on (as much as I hate to admit it) a great play by Brian Urlacher.

Expect Rodgers to keep mowing down the opponents as Green Bay will make a strong push for Super Bowl No. 5.

Biggest Concern

 The pass defense has been absolutely atrocious so far.

Giving up 419 yards to Drew Brees is far from ideal, but somewhat understandable. But giving up 432 to Cam Newton followed by 302 yards to Jay Cutler is setting a pretty scary precedent in the frozen tundra.

With games left against the Falcons, Rams, Chargers and Lions still on queue for the year, this unit will get plenty of chances to step their game up before the playoffs roll around. 

Real Odds

 They remind me a lot of the Patriots, but with a slightly better defense, so I give them the best shot to win it all.

Conclusion

Well, thanks for reading those of you that stuck through the whole thing. Let me know what you guys thought.