2011 MLB Playoffs: Would the Diamondbacks Have Been Better off Facing the Phils

The dust has settled on a feverish finale to the MLB regular season with a shift in the playoff teams and positioning that no one would have imagined three weeks ago.

As it turns out, many Diamondbacks’ fans got their wish: the team will not face the Phillies in the first round.

But is that a good thing?

Assuming that the Phillies make it to the NLCS, would it have been better to face them in the NLDS where only three wins are needed to advance?

The popular assessment is that you put off facing the Phillies as long as possible. Let another team face them in the NLCS because you never know what can happen. The other team can beat the Phillies or they could have an injury that depletes their rotation.

The argument, however, for facing the Phillies in the NLDS is that the Phillies starting rotation is much better in the third and fourth slot than the Diamondbacks, and it would be easier to beat them three times as opposed to four.

However, there’s another angle that reasons the Diamondbacks could have benefited from facing the Phillies in the first round that is much less concrete than looking at the players on the field.

The Phillies clinched the NL East  on September 17—the first team in baseball to clinch their division. They proceeded to lose the next eight games, including being swept by the Nationals. They have rested players in an effort to be fresh for the postseason.

Take out the three-game sweep they just completed of the ever-reeling Atlanta Braves and they had lost four of their past five series.

Momentum may be a clichéd term used by teams who lack the talent of their opponent, but in baseball it is undeniable that underdog teams who have had to compete to the final days of the regular season have had postseason success.

Look no further than last season’s World Series champions.

The Giants trailed the Padres in the NL West entering September. They got hot and went all the way. The same thing happened in 2007 with the Rockies—who eventually lost in the World Series—and in 2006 with the Cardinals who won the World Series.

The Cardinals now enter the 2011 season in a similar fashion to 2006. They have ridden a hot streak into the playoffs, competing fiercely until the final day of the 162-game season, and now face a team that has had their playoff position secured for weeks.

Will momentum prevail again?

By the end of next week the answer will finally appear as to whether or not facing the Phillies in the first round would have been a good thing.