Boston Red Sox Fallout: Who Goes, Who Stays in Beantown?

With as epic a regular-season choke as any team has every endured now squarely on the shoulders of the Red Sox, the fallout will begin. Debating blame and where to place it will be something that will be done by numerous people today and all through the long cold winter. 

The real question is what are the actual results of this inexplicably weak finish to what should have at the very least been a season with some form of postseason baseball in it. We all know that certain players, regardless of how much blame one wants to place on their shoulders, are likely to be back next season. 

Adrian Gonzalez, who finished a very good season with a somewhat weak September, will be back. In all likelihood, Carl Crawford and his $142 million contract are on the way back to Boston as well. Yes, he had a terrible season and yes, there's very little chance he'll ever earn the money the Sox lavished on him. 

Contracts of that size can't be easily moved, though. Crawford, no matter how much Red Sox Nation dislikes him today, will be in a Boston uniform next year. 

So who's actually going to be gone next year? 

Here are three locks. Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek and JD Drew. Two of these guys will be sorely missed and with good reason by Red Sox fans. Wakefield, whose age may just finally have caught up with him, has been a loyal and key component of Red Sox teams since the mid-'90s. He's started, relived, even closed a few games. He's been a solid guy in and out of the clubhouse, and it was nice to see him finally get his 200th win this past season. It's unlikely he'll be back for the next one, though. 

Jason Varitek is probably going to end his career as one of the most beloved catchers in Red Sox history. He played tough, his bat was solid in his prime and he also punched Alex Rodriguez in the face, earning Varitek Sox Hall of Fame status in the minds of many.

JD Drew entered this season as the No. 1 overpaid, under-performing player on the Boston Red Sox. Ironically, as the season came crashing down Drew's, lack of performance and injuries were completely overshadowed by the much more severe performance problems of Carl Crawford, John Lackey and nearly the entire roster. Drew's contract is over now. Five years and $70 million, which, unfortunately, may end up looking like a bargain when compared to the Lackey and Crawford deals.

Theo Epstein and Terry Francona are both going to get roasted over the next few days and well into the offseason. The question facing Sox ownership is if you're going to get rid of one or even both of those guys, then you better have replacements in mind who are better. Firing coaches and general managers can be franchise-altering decisions that can cut both ways. This team seems to be suffering from philosophical issues and those may start above the titles of the two men in question.

The Red Sox were consistently injured and their pitching staff was consistently under stress. I wrote a column about the flawed workings of the Red Sox pitch count and inning limits, and I stand by it. The Red Sox, in spite of putting together a consistently solid offense, have had very consistent pitching problems. Having Beckett, Lester and Buchholz all healthy and pitching well at the same time is like a lunar eclipse. It's beautiful, but it doesn't happen often and it doesn't last for long.

The bullpen was consistently overused. The Red Sox bullpen isn't all that different from a lot of bullpens out there. There are a few real talents in guys like Bard and Papelbon. Aceves is solid as well. Constantly relying on guys like Dan Wheeler, Matt Albers and the other never-ending revolving door of mediocre pitchers to get a team through the sixth and seventh innings when other teams would simply be using their starters is a recipe for eventual overuse and disaster.

Jonathan Papelbon is another big question mark. In spite of his failures, last night he proved to be right at the top of the closer mountain in baseball this season. Papelbon's very good season coupled with Daniel Bard's very weak finish in September makes Papelbon a very risky player for the Red Sox to allow to leave via free agency. Allowing Papelbon to depart and then inserting Bard into a closer role could be an absolute disaster if he were to wilt under the pressure of the responsibilities that go with it. 

David Ortiz is going to be a huge question mark in Boston. A lot of his future there depends on what he expects from the team financially.

Ortiz had a great season, finishing fourth in the American League in OPS at .953. He's been a constant positive presence in the Red Sox' clubhouse since he burst onto the scene in the 2003 season. Ortiz has also been, historically speaking, a guy that Red Sox fans would want at the plate in key situations. He, like so many other members of the Red Sox, had a terrible game last night, but his future in Boston is not about that.

It's about money.

If Ortiz seeks a prohibitively high contract or one that will last for more than two or three seasons, then it's very unlikely that the Red Sox will even bother to negotiate. If Ortiz really wants to return and is willing to take a short-term deal for reasonable money, then it's not out of the question that he returns.

It's clear that the Red Sox need to make some major changes. Some of those are personnel based but some are more philosophical. It's going to be a very long offseason for the Red Sox and their loyal fanbase. It is worth mentioning that the last season that ended in such an apocalyptic fashion for the Red Sox was 2003 with Aaron Boone's walk-off. The next season ended in dramatically different fashion for the Red Sox. Spring training is only four-and-a-half months away.