50 Bold Predictions for the 2011-2012 NBA Season

I love to make predictions.  I'm a forward looking guy by nature and I am always enjoy taking everything that has happened up to the current place and time in the world and try to figure out what's going to happen next, especially with the NBA.

Now, I'm sure that a lot of you out there are looking at me like I've got bugs crawling out of my nose for looking seriously at the NBA right now and trying to figure out what's going to happen, especially considering there have been no free agent signings and the start of the season is looking bleak.

However, I'm getting antsy, and for your reading pleasure I've put together a long list of predictions for the next eight months worth of basketball news that is going to be coming our way starting very soon.

I'm going to start out with some lockout stuff, get that all cleared up then jump right into the season, all the way up to my championship prediction.

50. This Is David Stern's Legacy Judgement Year

There is one thing I can guarantee to you right now.  David Stern does not want to go down in the history books as the commissioner of the NBA that lost an entire season of basketball to a lockout.

It's bad enough that he had the 1998-99 season shortened for the same reason, but it could be argued that that particular work stoppage was inevitable (as was this one it seems).

Stern wants to be remembered as the guy that added seven new teams to the league in his tenure, and who reigned during the most popular period of basketball in it's short history.

There's no way he lets his image sour that much.

49. We See More Than 50 Games

When the 1999 season got locked out for more than three months, completely deleting the 1998 portion of the schedule, they were forced to go to an abbreviated 50-game schedule.

I think both the players union and the owners know how much there is to lose if the lockout lasts that long again.

Sure, baseball playoffs are still going on and football is just heating up, but baseball only covers so far into October and football only encapsulates Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Both sides are aware of the popularity of the sport, and they'll start to get serious when games start getting passed over.

48. The Word Contraction Gets Thrown Around...

The owners are complaining that they are spending too much on player salaries, there are a few select teams that are openly struggling in terms of fan support and ownership, it seems obvious that getting rid of two or three teams means getting rid of 24 to 36 players and therefore millions of dollars in salary.

The owners would be crazy to not use contraction as leverage, especially since they collectively own one of the teams who look contractable. 

47. ...But No Teams Are Axed

Like I said, the owners would be crazy to not use contraction as a threat at the negotiation table, but it doesn't seem likely at all that they use it.

David Stern is a proud man who seems to keep his accomplishments to the front of his personality, and if he ends up losing a team or three after adding seven since 1984, his ego would take a noticeable hit, and he would probably go into a rage.

46. The Players Get a Worse Deal Than What They've Had

Well this one might not be too bold, but it's looking like there's no way that the players keep the large slice of pie that they currently have.

The players currently get 57 percent of the basketball related income, and their most recent proposal was reportedly 53 percent.

The owners seem determined to grind that number down as far as possible, and if they can get it below 50 percent then they'll jump all over it.

45. 51-49 BRI Split

As far apart as the two sides seem apart, I don't think they are actually as miles apart as they seem to play it to the media.

A few percent more to the owners, no teams getting contracted, and a few more stipulations that I'll run down over the next few slides and they're pretty much lacing up the sneakers and warming up for the season.

44. 4-Year Max Deals

One of the things the owners feel that they need is to be saved from themselves, or rather save themselves from the stupidest of their cohorts.

When a team pays an over-performing player coming off a contract season who ends up flopping two years later it can be a cap-killer, and take a team years to recover.

There are an endless number of examples in the league right now, with just a few being Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, Rashard Lewis, and Barlie Gordanueva (the Pistons duo).

43. Players Force Some Form of Revenue Sharing

One of the big debating points for the lockout has been over how much money has been lost, which team is losing the money and what effect revenue sharing would have on the league.

Players argue that teams like New York, Boston and the Lakers are making bundles of money while teams like Milwaukee and Sacramento are scratching to get by.

The owners will likely cave on that issue and have some form of revenue sharing, whether it be complete revenue sharing or just like baseball and have a luxury tax.

42. Ticket Sales Drop

It goes without saying that when playing fewer games, fewer tickets are going to be sold, but on average, fewer tickets will be sold per game.

Fans are either indifferent to the lockout or hate both sides of the argument and are tired of hearing about it, a dangerous combination.

People will be fine with staying at home and watching games on television more than they will want to go out to a game and spend a few hundred dollars per family to see two-and-a-half hours of basketball.

41. But Ratings Stay Strong

The league just had one of the most successful seasons in NBA history in terms of ratings, ticket sales, and just overall product put out there for the public.

People may get tired of hearing millionaires argue with billionaires, but they still enjoy basketball, and there will still be plenty of people watching the games on television.

40. Deron Williams Hesitates to Return

Deron Williams seemed so eager to run off to Europe and play basketball during the lockout that it seems like he may have some troubles coming back.

Williams does have the clause in his contract to come back to the NBA once the lockout does come, but he seemed so excited and determined to go away that he may feel some sort of attachment to his new Turkish team.

39. Tim Duncan Has a Bounce-Back Year

For the first time in his career last season, Tim Duncan was kept out of the All-NBA team.  He had made his way onto one of the three All-NBA teams or All-Defensive teams in every season since his rookie year until 2011.

That being said, I don't think Duncan is going to continue to trend downward next season, in fact, I think he'll adjust to his limitations and play a new style of basketball, allowing him to get the most out of his limited body.

38. Sacramento Struggles with Shot Selection

So what do Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, John Salmons and Jimmer Fredette all have in common (you can include Marcus Thornton if they re-sign him)?

All four (or five) of those guys grab ahold of a ball and keep it for large chunks of time, needing the ball in their hands to get the most out of their games.  In other words, they are all basketball black holes.

You can have one basketball black hole, maybe even two, but four (or five)?  That's just too much.

37. Golden State Gets Defensive

The Golden State Warriors took a calculated risk when they hired Mark Jackson as their new head coach, but one thing they are hoping he will bring to the table is defense.

For years, the Warriors have been exciting, but save for a few years in the latter part of the '00s, they weren't very successful in the win column.

Putting some defense in their lineup, and maybe even re-tooling it a bit could make them a team with a shot at the playoffs...next year.

36. Kris Humphries Flops

For months now I have been yelling form the mountaintops for teams to avoid overpaying Kris Humphries, but I know it's going to happen.

He's been in the news so much in the past six months, what with marrying one of those Kardashians (I really don't care which one, is there any difference?) that he is achieving a status of well-knowned-ness (yes I'm aware that that's just about the worst word ever) that he didn't earn playing basketball.

On the court, he is the epitome of a contact year player, putting up inflated numbers in the final year of his deal.

He was rebounding 10 a game, but he had Brook Lopez as competition on his team, who is a center who grabs six boards a game.

I'll say it again, be weary of Kris Humphries.

35. Knicks Struggle out of the Gate

When you look at the New York Knicks on paper, you seem to have a very bare-bones lineup whose depth is reliant on young players and rookies.

They should have some troubles getting into a rhythm, incorporating their new players and just getting back into the flow of things, that they'll end up having some problems when they lace up the sneaks for the first few weeks.

34. Greg Oden Stays in One Piece

Greg Oden has played all of 82 games in four years in the NBA, so this is probably the boldest of my predictions, but I really think he's going to make it this year.

Portland has no real hurry to get him into the lineup like they did the other 38(ish) times that he got injured, so they should start him off at 15 minutes a game and work his way up to real minutes.

He may have some bumps and bruises along the way, but in all, I think that he'll end up playing the majority of the games.

33. Mike Brown Does a Good Job

Look at me, going against the grain on two things in a row!

Honestly, I really liked Mike Brown when he was in Cleveland, he was a great coach until things got really tight, and I think he was starting to learn his way around high-pressure situations.

Public opinion went so south so quick when it comes to Brown that he is pretty much expected to fail, and if the Lakers end up playing tough defense and competing for a top-three spot, which they should under Brown, that it should be considered a success.

32. Boozer Bounces Back

Speaking of turning on a person too quickly, how the hell did we get to this point with Carlos Boozer.  Even I have wondered if the Bulls will try to shop the guy and his horrendous contract around.

Step back for a second and think about the fact that Boozer has battled injuries for a few years now and think how he will do if he plays a full season.

I really think he can get back to the point he was at three years ago when he was looked at as an elite power forward and even start to play a little defense again.

31. Ricky Rubio's No Pistol Pete...

When he was drafted, Ricky Rubio was supposed to be the next big thing to come out of Europe and the savior of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Now his expectations are far lower.

Still, Rubio is expected to come over and end up with the starting job by the end of the season, especially when Luke Ridnour is his competition.

However, I think he'll struggle to a point where people start to question his viability in the NBA, be given a few shots at starting and ultimately have a disappointing rookie year.

30...But the Timberwolves Play Well

Kevin Love is ready to take the next step, Derrick Williams is a promising rookie who should be starting within a few months of the start of the season, plus they have a few other good young players.

Michael Beasley is looking like a good trading chip for the Timberwolves, and with at least a decent starter at each position, it shouldn't be hard for them to improve upon last season.

29. Derrick Williams Overtakes Michael Beasley Early on

The two players are basically the same person when it comes to size, they are either an undersized power forward or an oversized small forward (that's not to say they can't play the position).

However, with the Timberwovles in a full-fledged youth-movement (ever since trading Garnett), Williams should have the fast-tract toward being a starter, and the T-Wolves could even end up trading Beasley for future cap relief, a draft pick or another young player now that he actually has some value as a basketball player.

28. Utah Recovers Quickly

The Jazz traded away their franchise point guard nearly two years before his contract was up.  It was a stunning move at the time with both big fans and critics.  Now, however, they look like geniuses.

They have a frontcourt of the future established with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, some good young players in Paul Milsap and Gordon Hayward and are perfectly set up to either trade for a very good player (Chris Paul?) or keep their team and build over the next few years into a juggernaut.

Hell, depending on how everyone plays they could even make the playoffs this season. 

27. New Orleans Struggles, Trade Chris Paul

It seems like the Hornets have to realize that they are not in a prime position to re-sign Chris Paul.  He is playing for a team with no owner that has made very little progress since he re-signed with them in 2008.

With uncertainty, presumably tight pocket books and no new players coming in from the 2011 draft, it seems as if the Hornets will end up struggling early and end up trading Paul before the deadline.

26. Josh Smith Goes West

The Atlanta Hawks seem keen to take a look around at the offers for Josh Smith and see what they can get for the big shot blocker.

I think Smith will end up going to the Western Conference and the Hawks will re-tool their lineup a bit.

One team that I think will make a play for Smith is Golden State, as a swap with possibly another player for Monta Ellis could make both teams better.

Smith gives the Warriors a defensive-minded player and Ellis gives the Hawks an explosive young shooting guard to pair with, and take the pressure off Joe Johnson.

25. Andre Iguodala Follows

One player who has been talked about as on the trading block for what seems like nearly a century, Andre Iguodala, should finally get traded this season.

People seem to either see him as an overrated player who hasn't got the leadership ability or the basketball skills to be a number one option or a guy who has been in bad situations for his career.  I tend to fall into the latter category.

A team that I think will make a play for him would be the Clippers, as he gives them a veteran player who can not only score, but play defense.

24. The Knicks Go for a Lesser Point Guard

This may come as a shock, but the Knicks have a bit of a bare lineup after trading for Carmelo Anthony last season.

Their package for a guy like Chris Paul would end up including Chauncey Billups' expiring contract, Bill Walker and/or Toney Douglas, Iman Shumpert and first round draft picks starting in 2018 at the earliest.  There are definitely better options out there for the Hornets.

So, I think the Knicks will settle on a lesser point guard, and eventually end up with Ramon Sessions, an unassuming, fast-paced guard who seems to fit right into their style of play, and give up just a draft pick or one of their three young players and a second-rounder.

23. Detroit Finally Deals Rip

The Pistons have been trying to get rid of Richard Hamilton and his contract for the past year now, but teams have looked at paying a guy who is well past his prime nearly $45 million over three years as fiscally unsound.  Who knew?

However, now that he's down to two years left, it seems reasonable to think some contender, or a team who is trying to burst into the playoffs could use him as a decent defender and a good offensive producer, and not give up much more than a first round draft pick or a young player to get him.

22. Boris Diaw Goes to a Contender

Being one of the really underrated players in the past four years or so, plus his modest contract and the Bobcats being in full-on rebuilding phase should mean that Boris Diaw gets dealt.

It seems like he could end up being shipped to a team looking to break into the playoffs, but more likely he'll end up on one of the ten best teams in the league.

Someone like Atlanta (after trading Josh Smith perhaps) or Orlando could look at Diaw as a defensive big man who could be had for a somewhat modest price and jump all over him.

21. Phoenix Struggles but Keep Steve Nash

The Phoenix Suns seem to be dead-set that they can re-sign Steve Nash, and who knows, maybe they can.

Phoenix will likely struggle all season long like they did last year and end up tenth or so in the West while Nash is the only thing making them look like potential playoff contenders.

HIs contract will run out and he will look at other destinations, but will his loyalty keep him tied to Phoenix? Only time will tell.

20. The Lakers Try for CP3, Dwight

The Los Angeles Lakers seem dead-set on getting Dwight Howard in Orlando, but I have a thought on him that I'll cover in just one click of your mouse.

I think they'll spend all of their time and effort offering this and that to Orlando, and ultimately the Magic will look at them and demand more and more until the Lakers get fed up with the deadline looming.

Then, they'll see the Hornets and Chris Paul about to be moved (to Utah? Oklahoma City? Orlando?) and try to get in on the action.

Alas, the Lakers have never been a team to go all-in on a point guard, so I think they're left in the dust on both ends. 

19. Dwight Howard Stays in Orlando

It would be a ballsy thing to do, but I think the Orlando Magic are going to call Dwight Howard's bluff this season.

Think about it, the only way the Lakers can sign him out of free agency is if they undertake a massive salary-cutting project all year long, otherwise they won't be able to give him a maximum contract.  The Knicks could end up with him, but they would then end up in a Heat-like situation where their other roster spots are filled with veteran minimum guys.

Howard will have to weigh the benefits of leaving against those of staying, making much more money as the Bird Rights are looking like they'll be strengthened so a team can pay their own players even more in a state with no income tax in a relatively large market.

18. Blake Griffin Repeats as Slam Dunk Champion

This may be no surprise to anyone in the world, but basketball fans are infatuated with Blake Griffin and his ferocious dunks, and even the old NBA players seem smitten.

Blake should stroll into the dunk contest and look like he should be there, but not necessarily be one of the best two dunkers in the opening round (last year DeMar DeRozan and JaVale McGee were the top two, hands down), but then pull out another ridiculous dunk in the final round to win another title as the fans get the vote.

17. Kenneth Faried, Bismack Biyombo and Kawhi Leonard Are Intriguing

All three of these guys should have their struggles, Faried and Biyombo with the offensive game and Leonard with grabbing playing time, but they should end up looking like interesting players down the line.

Faried should show flashes of Ben Wallace when he gobbles up rebounds and plays with extreme physicality, Biyombo, a young Dikembe Mutombo, blocking shots out of the arena, and Leonard like his own man, a do-it-all small forward with defensive chops and a huge basketball IQ.

16. Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely Struggle

These two players got a lot of love before the NBA draft for their huge potential and ability to become game-changers some day, but this season isn't going to look bright for these guys.

Kanter and Vesely are going to have the usual growing pains of coming to America, but intensified because of the fact that Kanter hasn't played organized ball for a year and Vesely has a strange style of play for a European.

15. The Most Promising Rookie...Jonas Valanciunas

Once the lockout ends and everyone starts playing actual basketball, the odds are that Jonas Valanciunas will struggle out of the gate, like nearly every European player does initially.

However, once the season starts rolling along and the Raptors figure out his role, he should start to show what he has been called, Zydrunas Ilgauskas without the foot and leg problems.

Having a center who can block shots and shoot from a distance is a wonder for any team, and the Raptors would be wise to start building around this young man.

14. Knicks Crack the Top Four

Once everything starts clicking on all cylinders for the Knicks, and they get their lineup all, well, lined up, they should be a threatening team in the East.

With the Celtics getting older, the Hawks looking like less of a threat and the Magic having troubles from within, the door is wide open for the Knicks to crack the top half of the East playoff picture.

13. Clippers Just Miss the Playoffs

The Los Angeles Clippers are looking like a very good up-and-coming team, so it's too bad (if you're a Clippers fan) that they traded away their draft pick that ended up being the top pick in this year's draft.

The Clippers should still see gobs of improvement from their young team, and if they end up trading Chris Kaman for a player to give an immediate impact, they should be able to threaten at least .500, if not more.

12. Houston Is This Year's Memphis

The Rockets were without their highest paid player a year ago and nearly made the playoffs, and now that Yao Ming's contract has come off their books, they should get even better.

The strange combination of Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, Chase Budinger and Chuck Hayes was easily the most random combination of styles of play and image in the league, but it worked.  

So long as they can retain some of their free agents (which they should) and add some more to their lineup (which they will), they should be a dangerous team in the bottom of the Western Conference playoff picture.

11. Portland Grabs a Top-Four Spot

I've always held the belief that were the Blazers completely healthy, they would be the best team in the league.

Imagine taking the Blazers at the end of last season, putting in Brandon Roy at full health and Greg Oden as the cherry on top, how is that not a 60-win team at the very least?

So, even with a half-healthy Roy and a Greg Oden who actually stays on the floor for more than 20 games at a time, they should get at least five to seven more wins.

10. Cavs and Bobcats Go Head-to-Head

With both teams in full-on rebuild mode and so much of their success riding on rookies and young players, it's pretty much inevitable that Charlotte and Cleveland end up competing for the worst record in the NBA.

They'll be beat up all year long by the likes of the Heat, Magic, Bulls, Knicks and Hawks, plus the mid-level Eastern Conference teams and should end up with very similar records near the end of the year.

9. Marcus Thornton Wins Most Improved

Marcus Thornton was able to show off his chops near the end of last season as Tyreke Evans went down with an injury and the Kings needed someone to step up.

When the lockout ends, a lesser team should look at Thronton and give him a decently sizable payday and get him to be a number two or three option on a 30-win team.

He should get the minutes to get his numbers up for the whole season enough to win the award.

8. Lamar Odom Repeats

Last year, Lamar Odom completely embraced the role of the Lakers' sixth man, and even though he was used as a starter periodically, he won the Sixth Man of the Year Award.

Odom should easily step into the same role as he did last year, and so long as the Lakers don't end up trading him, which I don't think they will, then he should be able to make his way back to the title again this season.

7. Kyrie Irving Is the Rookie of the Year

It seems to me that Kyrie Irving has the least blocking his way to get to the Rookie of the Year Award.

Sure, the Cavs have two other point guards, but there is little likelihood that either Ramon Sessions or Baron Davis keep the starting job long into the season, whereas players like Enes Kanter and Derrick Williams have combinations of legitimate players ahead of themselves.

Irving may struggle, but he should have the most chances and all the opportunity to win the award.

6. Dwight Howard Is the DPOY Yet Again

Dwight Howard has the highlight-reel blocks (that go into the crowd and give his opponent back the ball, but still), and is the one and only reason that his team isn't the Golden State Warriors, so he is the obvious favorite for the Defensive Player of the Year Award.

He has light competition, as there are very few Ben Wallace or Marcus Camby (circa 2007) type players in the league anymore.

Howard should win his fourth straight DPOY trophy and make a nice case for MVP, depending on how good his team fares in the standings.

5. Kevin Durant Is Your MVP

Another year, another 27 or so points a game and Kevin Durant is in the thick of the MVP race.

However, it seems like he has started to add an aspect of his game that was previously missing, defense.

Sure, he's still no LeBron on the defensive end of the floor, but he's also stopped missing assignments and letting his man take advantage of him so much.

So long as he can get his shot selection under control and stop hoisting six threes a game (or start making two or three of them), and he should be a favorite for the award.

4. Oklahoma City Wins the West

With Serge Ibaka, Russell Westbrook and James Harden looking like they are ready to take a step forward as basketball players, not to mention the inclusion of Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Two years ago they were a team looking to upset one of the elite teams, last year they were a team looking to break into the elite, now they are an elite team, looking for a championship.

They'll at least get a shot.

3. The Heat Make the Eastern Conference Finals, But...

The Miami Heat have the best trio of basketball players in the league, that's pretty much an accepted fact at this point.

In fact Miami was just a Dirk Nowitzki finger roll away from going up 2-0 in the Finals and taking a commanding lead on the series.

They had terrible troubles in the fourth quarter, especially with LeBron James, and they just seemed unsure of who was supposed to take over at any given time.  Iron out a few kinks and they could dominate.

2. Chicago Wins the East

Derrick Rose is ready to take yet another step forward as a basketball player and become the leader necessary to get his team to the Finals.

I'd say a repeat of the Bulls-Heat Eastern Conference Finals is inevitable, but I think the Bulls give it a different outcome with Carlos Boozer doing a much better job offensively and defensively than he did last year.  I mean, he can't do much worse.

1. Oklahoma City Wins a Title

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best young team in the NBA, and they are a year older this season and a year more experienced. 

They have no visible flaws with their worst starter being Thabo Sefalosha, who is a great defender.  On top of that they are as deep as any other team in the league, if not the deepest.

Oklahoma City has the offensive and defensive potential, along with two to three players who could take the next step and get even better.

They are going to be a force of nature.

If you are one of those twitterers, you can follow me at @JDorsey33.