UFC Fight Night 25: Predictions You Can Take to the Bank

The Battle on the Bayou goes down Saturday, September 17th, at 9PM ET on SPIKE TV.

Headlined by a welterweight showdown between grappling ace Jake Shields and the heavy-handed Jake Ellenberger, the main card features four competitive fights showcasing several promising up-and-comers:

• Alan "The Talent" Belcher vs. Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald
• Erik "New Breed" Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins
• Court "The Crusher" McGee vs. Dongi "The Ox" Yang
• Jake Shields vs. Jake "The Juggernaut" Ellenberger

Though likely to be overshadowed by boxing's Floyd Mayweather and Victor Ortiz, this card is a gem for fight fans, and is free on TV to boot. Oh, and it has a few nice betting opportunities, which never hurts.

Without further ado, let's get to the fights...

All betting odds courtesy of Bodog.eu. I take no responsibility for your crushing gambling addiction.

Follow Matt on Twitter, @TheFightingPost

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

Alan "The Talent" Belcher (-280) vs. Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald (+220)

The first main card bout of the night pits "The Talent" against "The Athlete." Two MMA veterans, Belcher and MacDonald have over 61 fights between them.

Returning from a one year injury layoff, Belcher is a well-rounded fighter that has earned four straight "of the Night" bonuses in his most recent fights. Though he tends to favor the striking game, with half of his 16 victories coming by (T)KO, he is no slouch on the ground.

MacDonald, on the other hand, is a BJJ black belt and submission specialist. Nineteen of his 25 victories have come by way of submission, though his wrestling is not superb.

Neither man is one to shy away from a fight, and I am pegging this as the "Fight of the Night."

Given MacDonald's penchant for submission, I expect Belcher to work to keep this fight standing, though he would likely be safe in MacDonald's guard as well. While MacDonald has a 5-inch reach advantage, I'd be shocked if he didn't immediately work for takedowns. His best chance at taking home the win lays, literally, on the ground.

I expect Belcher to outlast MacDonald, and either stop him with strikes or win a hard fought decision.

As far as betting goes, Belcher is a bit of an overstated favorite at -280, but MacDonald at +220 is a decent underdog to take a small risk on.

Pick: Belcher

Bet: If anything, Macdonald

Erik Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins

Erik "New Breed" Koch (-185) vs. Jonathan Brookins (+155)

Fighting out of Milwaukee, Wis., with the Roufusport team, Erik Koch is on a 3-0 streak after losing to Chad Mendes at WEC 47. He has also taken home "Knockout of the Night" awards for his last two fights against Francisco Rivera and Raphael Assuncao.

Jonathan Brookins returns to the cage for the first time since winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 12 at lightweight. He has been absent from the cage since December 2010 because of a string of injuries.

Though both fighters excel on the ground, and each have a majority of their victories by way of submission, I expect this fight to play out as more of a striker vs. wrestler fight. Koch has made it clear that he is looking for his third "Knockout of the Night" and thinks he can put Brookins away in the first round. Brookins, on the other hand, is the superior wrestler and will be the significantly larger man in the cage.

Brookins showed some weakness on his feet against Michael Johnson in the TUF 12 Finale, but demonstrated his toughness and resilience, wrestling his way back to a decision. I think he will be able to use his size and ground chops to avoid Koch's stand-up game and take this to the ground.

I'm looking for the upset here, so naturally I like the +155 line for Brookins.

Pick: Brookins

Bet: Brookins

Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang

Court "The Crusher" McGee (-155) vs. Dongi "The Ox" Yang (+125)

McGee,The Ultimate Fighter Season 11 winner, is returning to the cage for the first time since October 2010 when he submitted Ryan Jensen. He was set to fight in June 2011, but was forced to sit on the sidelines because of both knee and hand injuries.

Yang, on the other hand, is coming off of his March 2011 UFC victory over Rob Kimmons. Training with Chan Sung Jung out of Korean Top Team, Yang is an up-and-comer in the UFC middleweight division.

Yang is a heavy-handed...ox, with nine of his 10 wins coming by way of TKO. He will certainly be looking to either stand and trade with McGee or get on top of him and pound him out.

McGee's best plan here is to either out wrestle Yang, which he should be able to do, or pin him up against the cage and slow the pace. He certainly doesn't want to get in a firefight with the powerful Korean.

I think McGee is talented and smart enough to impose his game plan. I'm looking for him to come away with the decision, or possibly a submission if he feels comfortable enough rolling with Yang.

As far as betting goes, I'm not overly excited by either line. I'm staying away from this one.

Pick: McGee

Bet: Pass 

Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger

Jake Shields (-200) vs. Jake "The Juggernaut" Ellenberger (+160)

I wrote a full breakdown of this fight earlier in the week, which can be found here.

Shields is coming off of a unanimous decision loss to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 129. Prior to the loss, Shields was on a five-year, 15-fight win streak, during which time he won Rumble on the Rock 9, the EliteXC welterweight championship, and the Strikeforce middleweight championship. With a career record of 26-5, Shields may only be two fights away from a rematch with GSP.

Ellenberger is on a hot streak of his own with four straight wins since losing his UFC debut to Carlos Condit. Though he's been fighting lesser competition since losing to Condit, Ellenberger has impressively knocked out three of his last four opponents. Though he has a career record of 25-5, Ellenberger has yet to face high-level talent on a consistent basis; this fight should test his mettle.

Ellenberger is the better, more powerful striker, but Shields is undoubtedly the stronger grappler. I think Shields will be able to dictate the fight and force Ellenberger to try and outlast him, which is not an easy task. I see Shields winning a decision.

As far as betting goes, I actually like Ellenberger's line. There is a very reasonable case for him winning this fight, and at +160, he's not a bad bet to put some money on.

Pick: Shields

Bet: If you favor Ellenberger in this fight, he's a good bet.