AL Wild Card Race 2011: Can Tampa Bay Catch the Red Sox?

As baseball makes its way into the final weeks of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays are only a handful of games away from a wild-card berth. All season, it's looked as though the Boston Red Sox would cruise to their seventh postseason appearance in nine seasons and the Rays would fall victim to Major League Baseball's absurd eight-team playoffs.

But now it's September 15th and the Rays are only four games away from clinching a playoff spot. It might have seemed too high a mountain to climb at the end of August, but Tampa Bay swept an ailing Boston team last week. After stumbling in Baltimore, the Rays look ready for another four-game series against the Red Sox.

The Rays clubhouse has reason to believe they can be playing in October. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon has done a masterful job leading this team from the AL East abyss into national prominence. But can his Rays really catch up with the Red Sox and close a four-game gap in just 14 opportunities? Here's a look at the Rays' remaining schedule.

September 15th: Tampa Bay at Boston

Just last week, Tampa Bay swept Boston at home with a combined score of 22-8 over three games. Jeremy Hellickson will most likely be on the mound, and that's good news for Rays fans. The right-hander took care of business in his last matchup against the Red Sox, pitching for six innings and only giving up five hits and three earned runs.

Offensively, Tampa Bay has scored at least five runs in all of its games this month. Look for it to be close, but I think the first of the four-game series goes to Tampa Bay.

Prediction: Tampa Bay wins, closing the gap to three games in the Wild Card race. 

September 16th: Tampa Bay at Boston

The projected pitcher for Tampa Bay in Friday's game is James Shields, an ace on the mound against Boston. In his last two games against the Red Sox, Shields has pitched for 16.1 innings, given up just four runs and struck out 11 batters. That's an impressive line against a group of hitters like the Red Sox.

For Boston, it's going to be Josh Beckett on the mound, who is making his first start since spraining his ankle. He hasn't faced Tampa Bay since July, but when he did he was on fire, pitching for eight innings and allowing just one hit and no runs.

It's going to be a low-scoring game as both teams won't combine for more than six runs. The Red Sox will overtake the Rays in this pitcher's duel, with Beckett as the ultimate winner.

Prediction: Tampa Bay loses, dropping them to four games down to Boston in the Wild Card race. 

September 17th: Tampa Bay at Boston

In Tampa Bay's third game at Fenway in as many days, the team will be showing signs of sluggishness on offense. That can either be good news or bad news for Boston pitcher Jon Lester who is set to take the mound that afternoon. Lester struggled on September 11th when he faced the Rays, lasting only four innings and giving up as many runs. If he struggles on the mound, Tampa Bay could find its second wind and scratch out another victory in the series.

The Rays haven't selected a pitcher for the contest yet, but Jeff Niemann has gone after Shields these last couple of weeks. Niemann played very well in Boston in August, pitching a complete game and only giving up three hits and two runs while striking out 10 batters. If he plays anywhere near that, and the Rays can string some hits together, they will win this one hands down.

Prediction: Tampa Bay wins, getting them back to just three games down to Boston in the Wild Card race. 

September 18th: Tampa Bay at Boston

It's not only Tampa Bay's fourth straight game at Fenway, but it's an afternoon game. This means those precious hours they could have spent resting or relaxing will be spent playing baseball in the Boston heat. It's Massachusetts, but it's still in the high 70s during the early afternoon.

Boston plans to come out with Tim Wakefield, who has struggled recently, compiling a 5.61 ERA since the All-Star Break. Tampa Bay will most likely come out with David Price, who has been a strikeout king of late, sending 36 batters back to the dugout in his last four games. I think this is a game where Wakefield continues to struggle, as does the Rays lineup. Price will be an ace on the mound, if he plays, and probably strike out another six or seven. It'll be another low-scoring game with Tampa Bay leaning heavily on the arm of Price.

Prediction: Tampa Bay wins, leaving them only two games down to Boston in the Wild Card race. 

September 20th: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees

Here's where things start to get really tough for the Rays. They'll be on just one day's rest and headed to Yankee Stadium for another four-game series on the road.

CC Sabathia will most likely be on the mound for the Yankees. He didn't fare well for New York the last time he faced Tampa Bay, giving up five runs. He also left five players on base in his eight innings pitched. I think after such a grueling test at Fenway, Tampa Bay will leave more runners on base and score less runs.

Boston, meanwhile, will have already played a doubleheader against Baltimore at Fenway, splitting what I believe will be high-scoring games. They'll be playing their third game in the series this night, with Baltimore winning in the end.

Prediction: Boston wins then loses in its doubleheader on September 19th, then loses again on September 20th. Tampa Bay also loses, but it keeps the Rays still only down two games to the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. 

September 21st: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees (Doubleheader)

This season, New York has done well in doubleheaders. They split with the Cincinnati Reds in June, swept the Baltimore Orioles in July and then split with the Orioles in August.

Tampa Bay has done just about as well, sweeping the Minnesota Twins in April and splitting games with the Boston Red Sox in August.

I think it will be more of the same as the teams will split the doubleheader. Boston will win its final game against Baltimore as the Orioles run out of gas after playing four games in three days.

Prediction: Tampa Bay wins, then loses. Boston wins, keeping the Rays down 2.5 games in the Wild Card race. 

September 22nd: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees

This is the night you see an incredibly lopsided score that will look like it belongs more to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than the Tampa Bay Rays.

It's going to be a loss for Tampa Bay and something to the tune of 13-3 or 17-6 because the Rays will be tired, they'll be anxious to get home and, even if they lose, they'll only be a handful of games behind Boston in the Wild Card chase.

Boston will be off this night, so it'll really only matter for half of a loss anyway.

Prediction: Boston is off this night. Tampa Bay loses, which drops them to three games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. 

September 23rd: Tampa Bay vs. Toronto

This is where Tampa Bay gets some much-needed rest and wins. They'll be facing a Toronto Blue Jays team that isn't terrible (they're currently above .500) but has fared very poorly against the Rays this season. Tampa Bay has not only compiled a 10-5 record against the Blue Jays, but they've done it in convincing fashion, outscoring the Canadians 72-48.

They'll only be on one night's rest, but sleeping in their own beds provides that rejuvenation that no hot tub or masseuse can provide. By this point, Toronto will be officially out of the Wild Card race and inserting new prospects into the lineup. Look for Tampa Bay to win easily.

Boston, however, goes to New York to face a Yankees team that plays its best baseball as the postseason approaches. The Red Sox will have their hands full as they play their first of a three-game series in New York.

Prediction: Boston loses and Tampa Bay wins, getting the Rays to within two games of the Wild Card. 

September 24th: Tampa Bay vs. Toronto

With Boston losing the night before, Tampa Bay knows that a sweep against Toronto can get them even closer to that Wild Card spot. The Rays pitching rotation is strong, and it's been getting stronger as the season winds down. Their sluggers may be slumping now, but by the second game of the Toronto series, Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist will be having a field day with a Blue Jays bullpen that owns a collective ERA of 4.57.

Boston continues to fight against New York, and I don't think the Red Sox get a win until their third game of the series.

Prediction: Boston loses and Tampa Bay wins, getting the Rays to within a game of the Wild Card. 

September 25th: Tampa Bay vs. Toronto

I'm calling a sweep for the Tampa Bay Rays against a Toronto Blue Jays team that struggled to find consistency throughout the 2011 season.

Give the Blue Jays credit, though—I think they'll get over 80 wins this season, doing so in back-to-back years. Jose Bautista was a great signing for them last February as he leads the team in batting, but I expect them to go after another slugger in the offseason.

Boston will also squeak out a win on this night, as they finish their three-game series against New York.

Prediction: Boston and Tampa Bay win, keeping the Rays to within a game of the Wild Card. 

September 26th: Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees

I truly believe that if Tampa Bay can win two in its three-game series against New York, they will get into the postseason.

The Rays will be saving pitchers James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson and David Price for these matchups. I guarantee it. Will the New York Yankees, with a lock on the division lead, use CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett or Ivan Nova? The answer to that question will determine the playoff hopes of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Prediction: Boston loses and Tampa Bay wins, getting the Rays tied with the Red Sox for the Wild Card. 

September 27th: Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees

This is the one that the Rays will lose, and I think it's because New York would rather face a hobbled Boston that has no bullpen than a Tampa Bay team that is only improving as it fights to enter the postseason. It will be a low-scoring game, and the Yankees will have been saving someone from the starting rotation for October, but they'll use him to try and get rid of the Rays.

Boston will win against Baltimore on the night, thereby capitalizing on Tampa Bay's loss.

Prediction: Boston wins and Tampa Bay loses, opening up a one-game lead for the Red Sox. 

September 28th: Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees

This one's for all the marbles. If Tampa Bay wins, they have a shot at playing Boston for a spot in the postseason. If they lose, it doesn't matter what the Red Sox do because they'll be a game short no matter what. So what happens?

I think New York tries to beat Tampa Bay any way they can. They won't mess around and they'll throw someone like Ivan Nova at them for six innings, then relievers David Robertson and Mariano Rivera will finish out the night. Tampa Bay will be saving James Shields, their best pitcher, for last. It will be a great game decided by no more than two runs, and in the end the Rays will beat a Yankees team that did everything to keep Tampa Bay from throwing a wrench into the postseason.

The night will end sadly for the Rays, however, as Boston will do its job against Baltimore, cleaning up against an Orioles team that has nothing to play for except pride.

Prediction: Boston and Tampa Bay win, allowing the Red Sox to clinch the Wild Card by just one game.