Washington Wizards: Is John Wall Ready to Step Up to the Next Level?

During the 2011 NBA offseason, Washington Wizards fans can occupy themselves with any number of distractions. They can tabulate the value of Nick Young or wax poetic on JaVale McGee’s hops. They can dream about that Casanova Jan Vesely or wring their hands about the mercurial Andray Blatche.

But all of those mental calisthenics are just that: distraction.

The future of this franchise rests on two questions about one man.

Is John Wall the one? And is he ready to prove it?

In the fragile landscape of an NBA reclamation project, outcomes almost always depend on the development of one potentially special player.

If the player in question is simply good, the franchise will likely idle in the unwelcome world of semi-contention for years. If he’s great, records will fall and banners will hang.

Like Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City or Derrick Rose in Chicago, Wall’s progress in the next two years will drive the Wizards fortunes, and the next decade in D.C. orbits around his star.

Now it’s hard to tell from his rookie season alone whether Wall can lead Washington to the top. He certainly did plenty to allay fears—if there were any—that he might flop in the NBA.

The same things that made Wall a special player at the University of Kentucky translated generously to the professional level. Wall is still faster with the ball than almost anyone in the world, and even with the foot injuries that hampered him all season he's about as equally strong a finisher.

The statistics bear that. In his first year, John Wall averaged 16.4 points and 8.3 assists per game on a pretty woeful team.

To put that in historical perspective, only ten players in league history have averaged over 15 points and seven assists in their rookie campaigns.

Their names? Oscar Robertson, Ernie DiGregorio, Phil Ford, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Damon Stoudamire, Stephon Marbury, Allen Iverson, Chris Paul and John Wall.

That’s pretty good company.

Narrow the list to those rookies who averaged more than 16 and 8, and only Wall, Stoudamire and Robertson make the cut.

It’s still a pretty elite group, but that name Damon Stoudamire lingers and clings to Wall's like bad cologne.

Stoudamire was a productive player over 13 NBA seasons, but he’s not the player Washington needs Wall to be. After a nice sophomore season, Stoudamire's numbers quickly regressed and then plateaued at around 13 points and 6 assists per contest over the rest of his career.

Is John Wall is the next Damon Stoudamire?

No. And a closer look at the numbers reveals why.

During his rookie year Stoudamire was an accomplished shooter, connecting on almost 40 percent of his attempts from three-point range and posting a decent .528 true shooting percentage.

In essence, Stoudamire was already a finished product.

Wall is an empty canvas, a block of clay or whatever artistic metaphor for potential you want to summon. The rookie Wall hit less than 30 percent of his three-pointers and carried an abysmal .494 true shooting percentage.

Despite those clear holes in his game, Wall was still able to score at a decent clip and create opportunities for his teammates.

One more step into the statistical netherworld reveals how.

According to this tidbit from the top-flight Wizards blog Bullets Forever, Wall shot 59.9 percent at the rim, just one percentage point behind the sublime Derrick Rose.

And when he wasn't finishing at the hoop? He hit a miserable 30 percent of his attempts between 16 and 23 feet.

That’s the good and the bad with John Wall. He rivals the very best at the things he does well, and he’s surprisingly bad at all the other stuff.

But to return once more to the Damon Stoudamire comparison, it’s the nature of what John Wall does well and what he does poorly that gives the Wizards hope for the future.

The things that John Wall can’t do are things completely within his control. He can become a better shooter, a better team defender, a better leader.

The things he already has—burst, agility, speed—cannot be gained through shooting sessions and film study. One must, as John Wall already has, carry those gifts from the cradle to the court.

The question for Wall is not so much “Can He?” but “Will He?”

In that way, the numbers already validate John Wall.  They chart, in their lopsided splendor, the enormity of his potential.

It’s Wall’s turn to fill in the gaps.

But before he does that, it’s your turn to tell me what you think about John Wall. Will he become a franchise player? Will he show some marked improvement in 2011-12? Let me know in the comments.